Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Thirty Two Chunk (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 5-2-1
The opening leg of the early pick 5 is a competitive $50k maiden claiming turf route for colts and geldings. 5-Unrivaled Hero makes career try number 10 this afternoon off a nine-month hiatus for the Glatt barn and ran some grass route tries last year that match up well. This excellent layoff barn has been red-hot as of late, clicking close to 40%. 2-Raging Inferno returns from a six-month freshening for conditioner Dan Blacker, who sports a strong 8-for-22 mark with a $3.12 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns the past five years. The 3-year-old didn’t show much in both turf routes at Del Mar last fall, but drops in for a first-time tag with Lasix, and returns as a first-time gelding. Blinkers off 1-Saharian finished an improved third with the class drop to this level when last seen back on March 27, and should move forward, second off the bench for Mullins.
Race #2: Selections: 7-4-5
7-Millbo Baggins was beaten by double digits in his most recent try on May 1, but drops down to a more suitable level this afternoon for trainer Aggie Ordonez, and should sit a favorable stalking journey today with jockey Armando Ayuso. 4-Typhoon Tommy flashed speed and finished a much-improved second on April 18, when finishing in front of a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 1-for-17 gelding sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (65). 5-Aloha Chrome rallied for the show spot when dropped in class and meeting several of these in the aforementioned April 18 event, and should get a live race flow to close into.
Race #3: Selections: 3-4-5
The multiple stakes-winning 3-Later Than Planned (Ire) stretches back out after a game score in the April 18 John Shear S., and the colt’s versatile running style gives jockey Hector Berrios several tactical options this afternoon. 4-Charlie’s Curlin makes his stakes debut today, having won two straight grass routes for Hernandez and Mullins, and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (84). 5-Bust Out rallied sharply for the place spot behind Charlie’s Curlin in last when running out of race track, and is a logical fit again, second off the bench for trainer Michael McCarthy.
Race #4: Selections: 1-3-4
1-Springline is a 10-start maiden despite crossing the finish line first in a no-contest turf route back in February. The 3-year-old filly moves back to the main track today, on the class drop, and finished third at Ellis in her lone dirt try. She should be perfectly fine with the surface change, by Preakness (G1) winner War of Will. 3-Miss Hot and Cold goes two sprints to a route for trainer Paul Aguirre, while making her third start of the form cycle. The 5-year-old mare by First Samurai (16% dirt routes) should appreciate the additional real estate over the main track. 4-Can’t Say That was well-beaten as the 2-5 odds-on public choice when dropped to this level on April 17, but should be set for a better effort today, third start of the form cycle.
Race #5: Selections: 9-3-5
9-Golden Ale carved out some snappy early splits when flashing solid early zip in his most recent five-furlong turf dash, before tiring to finish second. The 7-year-old gelding will need to negotiate an additional furlong this afternoon, but should be able to clear this field with his outside post and prove tough to reel in late, third try off the bench. 3-Tom Seaver finished a disappointing eighth and last when returning after a year’s hiatus on April 17. The Sir Prancealot gelding goes first off the claim for conditioner Andy Mathis, who has quietly had a sensational meet from limited opportunities, and has strong new-barn purchase stats. A much-improved five-furlong synthetic drill on May 6 indicates improvement is likely. 5-Central Dispatch has been plagued by layoff lines throughout his career, but drops in for a career-low $25k claiming tag for Sadler and has trained well off the mini-freshening.
Race #6: Selections: 1-2-5
Class dropping 1-Please Focus has good early zip to coincide with this afternoon’s rail draw and figures to be hustled along from the fence by Ayuso, moving back to the main track on the cutback. The 5-time winning 6-year-old gelding should prove tough to reel in late with an alert break at this reduced level. 2-Chasin Munny ran a better-than-looks beaten favorite fourth with a taxing wide journey on May 3, and was a game winner when last trying this $8k claiming level at this 5 ½-furlong trip. The Jeff Bonde-trained 5-Shady Appeal sprang the 16-1 nose upset off a seven-month layoff on April 26 over a short field with a career-best Beyer (75), but must avoid a potential regression in start number two.
Race #7: Selections: 4-6-1
A winner of two straight turf sprints in Ireland before hitting the sidelines, 4-Midnight Horizon returns off an 11-month layoff for her initial Stateside try for the Blacker barn. The daughter of G1 winner Sioux Nation has trained smartly over the Santa Anita synthetic course and attracts Hernandez off the bench. The speedy 6-Miyako returns off the mini-freshening of a subpar speed and fade try when last seen back on March 15, but was a decisive winner two-back with a lofty (85) grass Beyer going six panels, and is dangerous with a similar upfront-pressing journey with Rosario taking over. 1-Andiamo Ragazza was in contention before tiring when returning off an eight-month layoff when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals on April 18, but is eligible to move forward today, second off the bench with blinkers back on.
Race #8: Selections: 5-8-6
5-Thirty Two Chunk flashed speed and ran a game second when last seen back in early February, a race that’s since produced a couple of next-out winners. The 4-year-old has trained well in the interim for conditioner Mark Glatt, and this lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 4-for-6 (67%) with dirt sprint runners returning off 61-180 days over this course the past three years. The lightly raced 8-May Me Sexy goes turf to dirt for Team O’Neill off a non-threatening, troubled trip sixth on April 25. The gelded son of Liam’s Map returns to the maiden-winning main track surface today and should get a live clip to close into. 6-Cruisin for Cali is back on dirt after a failed turf route try on April 19 and fits here if able to run back to that maiden-claiming win (71 Beyer) two-back, going seven furlongs.
Race #9: Selections: 2-1-7
2-Janz Joy (by Om) debuts for trainer Mark Glatt off a sharp worktab, and this sire gets an above-average 16% and 17% respectively with 3-year-old & up debut runners and turf sprinters. This filly’s last “best of 83” bullet four-furlong drill in :46.3 certainly catches the eye. 1-Let It begin returns off a nine-month layoff for trainer Carla Gaines after finishing a non-threatening seventh in all three lifetime tries last summer. This filly adds Lasix and removes the blinkers for a barn with solid stats with turf sprint returnees. A beaten favorite in the last 7-Goje moves back to turf where she finished second two-back for conditioner George Papaprodromou while flashing speed in all four career tries. This gal is the most experienced runner in the field, with several debut runners whose first-out turf trainer stats are suspect.
