Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Bandolero (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-4
1-Ruler of Law is by multiple Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law, who gets a strong 25% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. Hernandez and Mendez are 4-for-4 ITM, with two wins, when teamed up with firsters, and this sophomore colt has trained swiftly in the a.m., including a four furlongs gate drill in :46.2. 5-Honey’s Choice is a logical contender for D’Amato, having hit the board in all four career route turf starts, and shortens up this afternoon with the addition of Lasix. 4-Plattenberg Bay (by Blame) has worked steadily for his turf debut for Sadler, and this jockey-trainer combo is a solid 5 for 10 (50%) with a $4.46 ROI the past three years when teamed up with grass firsters.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-4
1-It’s Time drops again, exiting a well-beaten third at Los Al in his first main track start on Nov. 8. The Twirling Candy colt finished in front of next-out winner In the Mix in that last try and lands in a weak field as the most experienced runner in the lineup. 5-Texas Wildcat was last in a short field (beaten by double digits) in his lone try last September, but drops in class, returns as a first-time gelding, and can move forward. Lasix on. 4-Original One debuts for trainer Hector Palma off an average work tab, but he does not need to be much to compete here.
Race #3: Selections: 3-7-11
3-Willow Cove closed belatedly to round out the superfecta against similar on Nov. 24 and now goes first off the claim for trainer Mark Rheinford. This barn is 0-for-8 with new acquisitions, but retains Hernandez, and makes the third start of the form cycle off an improving Beyer pattern. The 1-for-18 7-Girlcanthelpit moves back to the turf after an impressive runner-up finish in her most recent try on Nov. 22. The 5-year-old mare opened the front of the gate post-start, stood motionless at the break spotting the field about five lengths, and then rallied strongly to just miss. Her grass tries are not all that impressive, but she should get a strong pace to run into. 11-Skatingthroughlife has not shown much in her last three grass starts for Glatt, but drops in class today and projects to get a live race flow to close into.
Race #4: Selections: 2-5-7
2-Bandolero flashed speed and tired in his most recent route try for Eurton and now gets plenty of changes/potential upgrades, second off the bench. The sophomore gelding drops in for a first-time tag, removes the blinkers, and turns back in distance to six panels. This barn clicks at approximately 30% with the MDSW-to-MDCLM dirt sprint dropdowns, and improvement is likely. 5-Tiggrrr Whitworth has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start and now drops in for a first-time tag in career try number four. The gelding goes second-time Lasix. 7-Lake Smokin is by Smokin, who won on debut, and gets a solid 18% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. He draws a cozy outside post for trainer Jorge Periban, who has done well enough overall with his maiden claiming debut starters.
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-9
4-Dare to Fly has run well in all three turf sprint tries for conditioner Phil D’Amato, rallying for the show spot in her most recent effort on Nov. 23. The 4-year-old filly has come back with three sharp synthetic drills since that last start, including a pair of bullets. She holds the recency edge over 5-Misleading, who returns off a 10-month hiatus for trainer John Shirreffs after an encouraging grass sprint debut score when rallying from far back to get up late. This filly by hot sire Not This Time has trained well in recent weeks, leading up to today’s return to action, and retains Berrios. 9-Baela, a voided claim when last seen winning a grass sprint on Oct. 19 for Baffert, returns off the mini-freshening with some solid a.m. synthetic drills and figures for an upfront pressing trip despite the outside draw.
Race #6: Selections: 3-6-4
3-Latitude (by Candy Ride) has run well in both starts for Sadler, including a field’s best (95) Beyer on debut Sept. 7 of last year. A beaten odds-on favorite in start number two, the colt could be ready for a career-best try today in start number three. Interesting to note that jockey Juan Herandez lands her instead of on Baffert returnee 6-Taif. The ladder has not been out in 412 days, but fired a sharp (92) Beyer on debut at Los Al in December 2024. The $1.45 million OBS purchase by Arrogate has trained well leading up to today’s long-awaited return, and gets a cozy outside draw. 4-Running With Chaos is improving for trainer Bob Hess, exiting a runner-up effort on Nov. 14 at Del Mar. The gelding has trained well locally for his Santa Anita debut.
Race #7: Selections: 3-10-9
3-Centrodelantero returned off the three-month mini-freshening with a convincing 3 ½-length turf win on Nov. 9 (with a lofty 91 Beyer) for trainer Jeff Mullins and looks primed for the repeat with a similar effort. 10-Baldoro is likely to fall into a favorable, upfront-pressing trip this afternoon, for conditioner Leonard Powell, and get first run on the late closers. The lightly raced 9-Theodore George arrives from Churchill Downs for trainer Michael McCarthy off a maiden-breaking main track route score over the off going on Nov. 20. The Curlin 4-year-old returns to grass this afternoon and still has potential upside.
Race #8: Selections: 2-1-4
2-Contrary Chieftain slashes his claiming tag in half for conditioner Librado Barocio after finishing a better-than-looks fifth on Jan. 8 at today’s one-mile trip, posting the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (71). A multiple winner over the track and distance, the 7-year-old gelding should prove tough to overhaul at this reduced level. 1-Autism Puzzle is winless since March 2024, but drops from $20k claimers to today’s $8,000 level and lands in a weak spot with jockey Mirco Demuro taking over the riding assignment. The Steve Knapp-trained 4-Mother’s Prayer has enough speed to clear this field from the get-go, stepping up from $5k to $8,000 claimers, but has not hit the board in his last five starts.
Race #9: Selections: 6-7-10
A competitive full field of fillies and mares going long on the turf closes out the Sunday afternoon card. The lightly raced 6-Winika ran a much-improved second when switched to turf in career start number two, finishing in front of several of these, and now makes her first start in the Mullins barn off that sharp effort. The daughter of Outwork goes second time Lasix and retains Berrios. The speedy 7-Musical Song ran well in his lone try at today’s 1 1/8-mile trip two back when holding on late for third (beaten ¾’s of a length). The 4-year-old filly drops back in for a tag today and should prove tough on the front end if allowed to carve out reasonable early splits. 10-Global Consort makes career try number nine today but rallied for second at 28-1 in front of Musical Song when last seen back on Oct. 26 for trainer Paula Capestro. She’ll now need to negotiate an outside draw, however, after breaking from the rail.
Reminder: we are racing on Monday (Jan.19), Martin Luther King Day! First post: 3:30 p.m. PT/12:30 p.m. ET.
