Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Our Moonlight (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 6-3-5
6-Sugar Reign showed decent early zip at 37-1 in her Jan. 11 MDSW debut for Bonde before tiring late to finish ninth of ten. The daughter of Twirling Candy drops in for a tag in start number two and exits a race that has already produced a pair of next-out winners. 3-Flamingo Star makes career try number eight today and has finished third on three occasions for conditioner Val Brinkerhoff. The 3-year-old filly by Flameaway showed speed and tired to fifth when facing similar on Jan. 23, and now shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon, sporting the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (59). She fits on raw numbers, but is hard to trust with an ice-cold Tyler Baze (1-for-48) aboard. 5-Pronounce It moves back to turf off a beaten-favorite sluggish try on Jan. 9 versus a weaker field for the new barn, but ran well enough in her Del Mar turf debut back in early November against Maiden Special Weight types to indicate she may prefer grass.
Race #2: Selections: 4-3-2
4-Uncle Chilly usually prefers to finish second rather than win, evidenced by his 15-1-5-1 mark, but goes first off the claim for trainer Jeff Mullins off a sharp runner-up try on Dec. 29. This top barn is a strong 5-for-10 50%/$2.60 ROI (9-for-10 ITM) with new dirt sprint acquisitions at Santa Anita the past five years. The field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (81), adds to the appeal. 3-Singlemore scampered away to a sharp 9 ¾-length maiden romp on the class drop Jan. 15 and now goes first off the claim for trainer Bill McLean off that top effort. The lightly raced gelded son of Distorted Humor is projected to clear this field early for his initial try facing winners. 2-Hondo Crouch finished a game closing third despite a slow start off an extended layoff for Glatt, and is now confidently moved up the class ladder (protected). The 1-for-15 gelding is likely to move forward off that effort, but is winless since September 2023.
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-5
1-Ramayana (by Uncle Mo) has run well in all four turf tries for trainer Richard Mandella, with a recent maiden win on Dec. 28 and three consecutive seconds to start her career. She broke from two tough posts in her last two starts and now moves all the way inside today, switching to the barn’s go-to pilot Mirco Demuro. A trio of sharp a.m. synthetic drills since that last win adds to the appeal today. 2-Wild Like the West drops out of two stake routes into this softer spot today for Baltas and was a sharp second in the Blue Norther S. when last seen on Dec. 29. The daughter of Into Mischief adds Lasix today, as does the rest of the newly turned 3-year-old fillies in this field. 5-Emma G was a decisive 2 ¼-length 23-1 upset winner on debut Dec. 12 at Los Al and now moves to turf with the addition of Lasix for career try number two. The sophomore filly has a strong grass pedigree on both sides, should relish the surface change, and figures to be forwardly placed.
Race #4: Selections: 2-6-5
A $52,044 Pick 6 Carryover begins here. 2-Resemblance has won two straight and now goes first off the claim for Team O’Neill. This barn has above-average stats with newly acquired purchases, and this gelded son of Nyquist could easily take another, having an excellent record (10-4-2-3) at today’s one-mile trip. 6-Leyas Candy drops from $25k claimers to today’s $16,000 level as the likely frontrunner in this field and was a game winner at Los Al two back. 5-Contrary Chieftain jumps up in class this afternoon off a 6 ½-length runaway score on Jan. 18 for a hot barn and was a troubled trop fifth behind Resemblance and a pair of other returning rivals two back. The 8-time winning gelding has shown the ability to stalk and pounce, which should serve him well in this spot.
Race #5: Selections: 1-2-3
1-Imaboutago (Ire) hit traffic at a critical point of the stretch drive on Jan. 8 but ran on well (while no match for the race winner) when clear to grab the show spot. The 5-year-old mare makes her second try off the bench for conditioner Leonard Powell and should improve today, making the second start over the downhill course. 2-Certitude (Fr) shortens back up to a sprint today, having hit the board in 12 of 17 starts for Sadler, and has trained well off the mini-freshening. Jockey Hector Berrios knows her well, and she’s consistently run some of the fastest turf Beyers in this field. The speedy 3-Tahini finished fourth behind Imaboutago in the aforementioned Jan. 8 event and now adds blinkers today for the Papaprodromou barn. Jockey Florent Geroux takes the call after recently moving his tack to Southern California.
Race #6: Selections: 4-3-5
4-Liam Smith broke through in a big way in start number two with a game win over this course on Jan. 23, earning a field’s best (89) dirt Beyer. The 3-year-old colt by Midshipman was claimed for $50k that afternoon and now makes his first try in the Mullins barn. Another potential move forward makes him dangerous today, making his first try against winners in what may prove to be a bargain purchase for these shrewd connections. The Peter Miller-trained 3-Sendit Mo looks like the main threat to the top choice, exiting back-to-back top efforts at this level. He came up a nose shy of consecutive wins on Jan. 9, while well clear of the third-place finisher. Route to sprint 5-My Boy Stan was badly outrun when overmatched in the Jan. 17 California Chrome Cal Cup Derby, but drops back down to a more realistic level today for a South Florida conditioner. The 3-year-old gelding can bounce back today on the cutback, with the addition of Lasix.
Race #7: Selections: 7-2-4
7-American Glory (GB) battled gamely with repeat winner Captain Choochies to fall just a neck short on Dec. 29. The 5-year-old gelding earned the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (88) that afternoon and should prove tough today with a similar try, second of the bench. Beyer par for this class level is (85). Recent dirt sprint winner 2-Tessuto goes dirt to turf off the Mullins claim, and while his two previous grass tries were nothing to write home about, he figures to get an upfront pressing journey on or close to the lead this afternoon. 4-Proudly Hailed just missed by a nose in his Southern California unveiling, shipping in from Turfway Park on Jan. 24, and is wheeled back on short rest for conditioner Jack Sisterson.
Race #8: Selections: 1-4-2
A beaten favorite runner-up in last, 1-Our Moonlight goes from a sprint to a route today, making her second try off the seventh-month layoff for conditioner Dean Pederson. The 4-year-old daughter of Tapit should find herself on an uncontested lead with an alert rail break and the addition of blinkers. She finished third in the Summertime Oaks (G3) last June and has run par and better for this level. 4-Runamileinmyshoes has been a popular commodity in the claiming box the last three starts and now makes her initial start for trainer Peter Miller, moving back to dirt. She exited a troubled trip fifth when last seen on turf Dec. 28, racing much further back than usual, and having some traffic issues in the deep stretch when rallying along the inside. A sharp main track gate-to-wire win at this one-mile trip two back makes her a significant threat today. The hard-trying 7-year-old mare 2-Shared Future was fourth behind the top choice on Jan. 11 and has been part of the superfecta in 12 consecutive races.
Race #9: Selections: 4-2-5-6
Class dropping 4-Silly Rabbit stretches back out today, making his second start off the six-month layoff. His return effort on Jan. 24 was not great when undeniably tired late, but all of the gelding’s best efforts were over a route of ground. Kimura climbs aboard. The lightly raced 2-Precision (GB) has not been out in 11 months for trainer Michael McCarthy, but has trained smartly over at San Luis Rey for his return to action, dropping out of back-to-back stake tries off the bench—Lasix on. The 1-for-15 5-Six Magpies (Ire) closed well in both tries at today’s 1 1/8-mile trip and makes his second try off the bench for trainer Steve Sherman. 6-Prince Dolce is a solid late threat again for trainer Carla Gaines, having to make up a lot of ground from tough outside draws in the last pair.
