Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Ragtime Rose (Chi) (Race 7)
Race #1: 5-Devil Moon goes two routes to a sprint with an improving Beyer pattern and gets timid vote in Saturday’s opener. The gelding set an ambitious pace last out and justifiably threw in the towel late. The other Mandella runner 4-Greenbow broke a step slow in debut and appeared to be climbing early on before launching a mild 4-wide bid past the half mile marker. His sire Runhappy is only 2 for 59 (3%) with sprint turf offspring, however. Rispoli stays aboard and improvement is perhaps forthcoming in second career start. 3-Virat got bounced around quite a bit in disappointing last try but was a decent 2nd closing from far back earning a (77) Beyer two-back.
Race #2: 6-La V. has been plagued by layoff lines but goes 2nd off the claim for trainer Gary Stute who is solid 3 for 10 (30%) with a $5.28 ROI with this claiming angle. The 5-year-old mare broke her Maiden going 5 ½ furlongs over this racetrack and projects to be forwardly placed in a race void of early zip. 4-Sailing Along ships in from Canterbury off 8-length romp where he earned a field’s best (77) last out Beyer speed figure. The filly goes out for new barn today off the claim and attracts Vazquez who is off to a fast start as leading rider. Beaten favorite 2-Larimar appears to be improving and makes first start off the Jeff Metz claim. This barn is, however, only 1 for 24 at SA with new acquisitions.
Race #3: 6-Granola Girl has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions and drops in for a first-time tag today for trainer Michael McCarthy. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 2 for 3 including a runner-up finish with MDSW to MDCLM turf class dropdowns. This filly’s better races have come sprinting. 7-Buy American is another who has run above par in 5 out of 8 career grass starts and should appreciate the class drop off the freshening. The 4-year-old filly has trained well for her return and appears to be the one to beat. Class dropping 1-Tiegarten goes two routes to a sprint making 3rd start off the extended layoff for Sise. The filly exits the September 10 race that’s produced a pair of next-out winners.
Race #4: First time gelding 1-M K Heart ships in from Golden Gate off 6-month layoff for trainer Paddy Gallagher and makes first start over the main track on the class drop. This barn is 7 for 23 (30%) with a $2.85 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM class plunges and this gelding should have little trouble with today’s surface change. A beaten favorite in last pair 8-Still On the Books adds blinkers off the claim this afternoon and stretches out from 6 1/2 furlongs to a mile. These are all above average trainer maneuvers for a barn that’s started this meet off in fine fashion. 4-Chris Fix is 0 for 12 but has hit the board in last 3 starts at this level.
Race #5: According to TimeformUS this $50k claiming turf sprint is projected to have a swift early pace. If that scenario comes to fruition things should set-up nicely for 2-Lincoln City who has a strong closing kick and makes 2nd start off the Peter Miller claim. 8-Give Me the Lute takes a sizable class drop this afternoon and lures Rispoli. The 6-year-old gelding is a multiple stakes winner. 9-Encroachment has won three straight for trainer Adan Farias but moves up in class and moves all the way outside today.
Race #6: 3-Midnight’s Girl comes off a troubled trip closing 3rd place finish behind next-out winning filly So It Would Seem who came back to score with a (71) Beyer on October 10. This gal stretches out today; broke her Maiden over this course and goes out for the D’Amato barn. 6-Never Sway drops in class; goes two sprints to a route and is reunited with winning rider. 7-Chao Mar is back routing making 3rd start off the extended layoff and was a winner going a mile at Los Al three-back.
Race #7: 8-Ragtime Rose finished a good second at 15/1 on October 1 debut for Mullins. The juvenile filly was off slowly and rallied strongly while wide for the runner-up spot. This barn is a strong 6 for 16 (38%) with a $3.65 ROI with second time starts sprinting on grass. 2-Electric Glide goes dirt to turf making her third career start for Sadler. This juvenile filly has grass pedigree on the dam side and switches to hot rider. Irish import 3-Mount Mary (Ire) makes first start stateside for trainer Simon Callaghan off a runner-up finish in big field overseas. This barn typically does well with these import types. 6-Wirly Girly is by multiple G1 winner Practical Joke who gets 19% overall with his 2-year-old prodigy.
Race #8: 4-Houndstooth has been freshened; removes the blinkers today and projects to get a lively flow to close into. This son of Uncle Mo has run well over this oval. 5-Savile Row has only had 1 start per year since 2020 but flashed good speed before tiring in most recent comeback effort and now goes out for new barn. The colt shows two decent 4-furlong drills since that effort. 1-Street Art improved substantially when moved back to dirt when finishing second by a neck at 33/1 in most recent effort at DMR. The 3-year-old gelding makes first start off the claim today for trainer Bill Spawr who is chilly 1 for 23 at Santa Anita with new barn purchases. Nonetheless, he fits well here if he can run back to that last strong (80) Beyer number.
Race #9: 9-Luka Grazie is by Grade 1 turf route winner Boisterous and improved when sent long on grass in second start for trainer Peter Miller finishing 3rd behind a next-out winner. The gelding broke slow; settled in the rear of the field behind a slow pace; and then rallied strongly when shaking free late. His gallop-out was impressive and he’s has had two 6-furlong stamina drills since that improved effort. 7-Chicknfingerfriday projects to sit a nice trip right behind stablemate who should be on the lead in here. 5-Please Focus has flashed speed and faded in both dirt starts to begin career and now stretches out and tries grass. Perhaps he can ration his early zip today going longer for winning connections.
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