Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Hero Status (Race 8)
There’s a rare $406,147 early pick 5 carryover today beginning with race one after a parade of double digit longshots stormed home in the early portion of the Saturday afternoon card. Here’s our 50-cent pick five play for those interested in participating in the multi-race exotic that could exceed $3 million in total handle.
Race #1: 1,3,4,9 With 1,7,8 With 3,8 With 1,2,6,8,10 With 3,8 = $120
Race #1: 3-Tecumseh Caroline moves back to grass for D’Amato today making 2nd start off the extended layoff and her initial disappointing debut on turf last October was excusable after a tardy start. This filly’s sire gets 19% with grass sprint prodigy so there’s good reason to expect further improvement today. She also goes 2nd time Lasix and blinkers. 1-Avery Blue cut back to a sprint which resulted in a decent wide third place finish August 28 and now makes 3rd start off the bench this afternoon. 4-Adam’s Creed exits same race as Avery Blue and should improve off 5th place effort in troubled trip debut.
Selections: 3-1-4
Race #2: 8-Careless Kitten is 0 for 17 but coming off three consecutive runner-up finishes at this level. Perhaps she’s finally found a field she can handle on the cutback. 7-College Boy has shown little in both career starts on both dirt and turf for trainer Leonard Powell but drops off the mini-freshening and lands in a weak spot. 1-Rogue Son has not been seen since even 6th place debut effort back in May and now returns taking a substantial class drop. Recent a.m. drills have not been overly inspiring, and barn is 0 for 17 with second time starters.
Selections: 8-7-1
Race #3: 8-Fore Flag makes career start number 13 but comes off back-to-back runner-up finishes at this level where he’s run above Beyer par for this class division. 3-Hot Legs Romolo has good positional speed but has been absent since 4th place finish and career best Beyer July 28. The colt has trained very well since that effort, however. The other McCarthy Maiden 5-Donner Lake returns to turf on the stretch-out and the colt has finished third from 4 prior efforts on grass.
Selections: 8-3-5
Race #4: Beaten favorite 2-Tom Bombadil drops back down to $16k claiming purchase price from two-back and this conditioner is a strong 8 for 23 (35%) with a $6.12 ROI the past 5 years with second off the claim runners at SA. 1-Sonic Brees adds blinkers off recent Milton Pineda claim but barn is 0 for 8 with newly acquired purchases at Santa Anita. On the positive side the 4-year-old comes off three straight runner-up finishes running above par for this N2 class level. 10-Divine Feminine should get a much livelier pace to close into this afternoon and finished directly behind two next-out winners in last DMR start on September 3.
Selections: 2-1-10
Race #5: 3-Comanche Country (Ire) seeks third straight win for D’Amato since arriving stateside and now makes 3rd start off the layoff with improving Beyers. This juvenile filly looks primed for another strong effort. Stablemate 8-Excelia (Ire) finished a tiring third against top choice in first U.S. start but is eligible to improve off that encouraging effort. Recent Maiden winner 4-Bolt’s Broad sprung the 20/1 upset in washed off grass event September 9 and now returns to that surface this afternoon for trainer Shelbe Ruis. The juvenile filly was off slow and wide in lone debut grass try but deserves another chance routing on turf as sire Bolt d’Oro is 4 for 18 (22%) with turf route prodigy.
Selections: 3-8-4
Race #6: It’s difficult to separate a pair of swift working Justify juvenile firsters from the Baffert barn that have a combined 8 bullet drills on the worktab. They’re both a must-use for those participating in horizontal exotics for a sire that’s clicking close to 30% with his juvenile debuting offspring. 6-Arabian Lion is a $600K Keenland purchase that attracts Vazquez who has 2 wins and a runner-up finish from 3 debuting starts for this barn. They include Gandolfini 9/17 and Huntingcoco 9/4. 5-Elwood Blues has very similar work pattern as stablemate with brisk bullet drills and aggressive gate rider. 1-Navy Man is a $450K Keeneland purchase by multiple G1 winner Bold d’Oro who gets 17% with his juvenile debuting offspring. This jockey/trainer combo have teamed up for a pair of debuting winners.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #7: 7-Rocking Redhead returns to Santa Anita where she’s done some of her best running and her form is somewhat clouded after dull Kentucky Downs try in last and overmatched 5th place finish in the G2 Yellow Ribbon two-back. The 5-year-old mare likes the mile trip and projects to get a favorable staking trip from outside draw. Of the D’Amato pair 5-Counterparty Risk (Ire) owns the field’s best last out turf Beyer (90) and comes off a rail skimming score. The 5-year-old mare is the lone graded stakes winner in the field. The speedy 4-Hamwood Flier (Ire) was an impressive wire-to-wire winner over this turf course in first U.S. start and finished 2nd using similar racing tactics in most recent runner-up DMR July effort. She could steal this if allowed to carve out moderate fractions.
Selections: 7-5-4
Race #8: Recent Maiden winner 4-Hero Status comes off runaway debut score and has yet to finish off the board in 5 career starts for trainer Mark Glatt. The colt adds blinkers today stretching out another sixteenth of a mile for first start against winners. A strong wire-to-wire threat. 6-Street Ruckus is reunited with winning rider and comes off back-to-back (92) Beyers that are above par for this class level. 1-Exaulted stretches out off a beaten favorite wide trip.
Selections: 4-6-1
Race #9: First time gelding 9-Red Linn (Ire) makes first start stateside with Lasix off nearly 15-month layoff for new trainer John Sadler after breaking maiden at 50/1 over in Ireland. This lucrative jockey/trainer combo are 9 for 29 (31%) with a $6.43 ROI the past 3 years with grass sprint starters at SA. All indications are this 3-year-old is well-prepared for U.S. unveiling. 5-Yeng Again comes off a strong second at DMR after nearly a two-year hiatus for Papaprodromou and looks like the one to beat if the gelding takes to the downhill course. The speedy 3-Silent Fury has been sidelined since March 2020 when being eased and walking off the track for trainer Brian Koriner. The 5-year-old has worked well for his turf debut and return, however, and is sired by Violence who gets 14% with his grass turf sprint runners. An encouraging sign that he returns protected.
Selections: 9-5-3
Race #10: Trainer Jeff Mullins appears to have the two best juvenile colts in the G3 Zuma Beach Stakes and they both exit the G3 DMR Juvenile Turf. 4-Dandy Man Shines (Ire) had an eventful first stateside stake start as the lukewarm 4/1 betting choice. He broke a step slow; settled in the rear of back; and then started a decent move up the rail just pass the half mile marker. The colt then encountered a wall of traffic problems in deep stretch with little running room. He galloped out well when finally shaking free and deserves another chance with clear sailing. Rispoli sticks. 5-Packs a Wahlop drew off impressively over top choice when stretched out and goes for third consecutive victory this afternoon. Always a positive sign when a turf runner puts considerable distance between themselves and the runner-up finisher. 2-Gas Me Up also improved stretching out in recent DMR maiden score and was runner-up to Packs a Wahlup two-back.
Selections: 4-5-2
Thanks for your picks Sir!
You’re very welcome