Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Heathers Gray (Race #9)
Race #1: 8-Brandon’smylawyer returns off a 6-month vacation today for new conditioner and adds Lasix for her 2022 unveiling. This 3-year-old filly has speed; is drawn outside in this turf sprint and had decent success over the turf in limited starts last fall. She might get the jump on these and keep going. 1-Lovamour makes second start in the states for trainer John Sadler when finishing a wide bang-up troubled trip 2nd on May 1. She earned the field’s best last-out Turf Beyer (77) with that strong effort and is the one to beat this afternoon. Two strong back-to-back grass tries since arriving from Newmarket make 4-Countess Rosina another BIG threat from the Mullins barn.
Race #2: 5-Race Judicata goes sprint to route for D’Amato and appears to be the speed of the speed. Her recent main track figures match up well here. 4-All Dialed In moves back to dirt and stretches out this afternoon for trainer Sean McCarthy. She finished behind next-out winner Rose Maddox two-back. Another move forward makes recent Maiden winner 3-Sideways Suances a potential spoiler in here from off the pace.
Race #3: 4-Bran returns to Southern California off a solid 2nd at Churchill in the G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint at 40/1. The 4-year-old gelding was a sharp winner here two-back; has good positional speed; and attracts Hernandez today for this competitive G3 event. 1-Burnin Turf gets a stiff class test today against graded stakes foes but there’s no denying his top recent form winning three straight for trainer Dan Blacker in stakes-winning time. Of the three Neil Drysdale-trained runners in here 3-Majestic Eagle is the most experienced in this field with 36 lifetime starts. He cuts back to a sprint after back-to-back route efforts; is a graded-stakes winner, and finished 2nd in this event last year off the layoff.
Race #4: The extremely talented 4-Brickyard Ride is 12 for 22 lifetime; 9 for 12 at Santa Anita and has rattled off 4 consecutive victories for conditioner Craig Lewis. This multiple graded stake winner is the speed of this field and proven at today’s tricky 7 furlongs distance. The obvious knock is the very short price. Graded stakes placed 5-Principe Carlo comes off the mini-freshening; has good tactical speed and likes this distance. The lightly raced and improving 6-Elector moves up into graded stakes competition after back-to-back wins in solid fashion. He’s worked well since that last win April 16 and has also proven to handle the 7 panels.
Race #5: 8-Flintmore has three runner-up finishes from 5 career starts and is proven he can handle a route of ground on grass. A pair of (80) turf Beyers are close to par for this class level. One more chance this afternoon to break through the Maiden ranks for excellent grass barn. 2-Conch Daddy showed speed and faded in first turf attempt but was beaten less than 3 lengths for trainer Doug O’Neil. This 3-year-old colt moves inside; stretches out today and should move forward making his 2nd start off the layoff. 7-Kazuhiko stretches back out and goes 2nd off the claim for Eurton barn. The sample is small, but this conditioner is 3 for 9 (33%) with this claiming angle.
Race #6: Sadler has both a FTS in here and 6-Wall Street Trader who drops in class today and goes 2nd off the claim. This barn is an impressive 8 for 17 (47%) with $3.27 ROI the past 2 years with this claiming maneuver. 7-Vetoed showed good speed and just missed when dropped to this $20k claiming level in last earning an above par Beyer for this level. 3-Torrid Tommy has been somewhat of a disappointment in both local starts in 2022 but takes the always dangerous class drop from MDSW to Maiden Claimers this afternoon.
Race #7: 5-Cairo Memories defeated a pair of these same runners with eye-catching win in the G3 Providencia April 9 with an impressive career best (90) Beyer speed figure. A repeat of that strong effort will make her tough to try and uphend today. 6-Sterling Crest has speed and has been ultra-consistent gathering checks routing on grass. She was well-beaten by top pick two-back, however, in the above-described performance. A lightly raced and improving filly 1-Island of Love from the D’Amato barn defeated Sterling Crest in last but may not be as effective going longer.
Race #8: 3-Stay Happy was a beaten favorite over at Los Alamitos on April 30 a race that’s since produced a pair of next-out winners. The gelding should improve making his 2nd start off the layoff and has trained well since that last non-threatening 6th place effort. He appears appropriately placed for a barn that’s had good success here. A potential swift pace and substantial class drop makes 1-Bear Chum a live late threat in here. The veteran gelding is 0 for 7 locally but 11 for 40 lifetime and has never been offered this cheaply. 2-Facts Matter another dropping in class in here and returning from Los Al. Unlike some of the others, however, this gelding is a proven 3-time winner over the track.
Race #9: The expected pace setter 2-Heathers Gray is a multiple winner over this track and distance and makes her 2nd start off the layoff this afternoon. She drops in class and is a serious wire-to-wire threat with these. Our Best Bet of the Day. 4-Hamwood Flier makes first start in the U.S. after defeating a robust field of 16 in maiden victory at Naas in Ireland over a year ago. This 4-year-old filly has trained well for U.S. unveiling and adds Lasix. 6-Ever Smart back-to-back (78) turf Beyers make this mare a logical threat again at this N1X $50k claiming level.