Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Daddysruby (Race 10)
Race #1: 1-Billy’s Bet is likely to show more early zip in the second route grass attempt, coming off a decent third-place finish at this level over at Del Mar. An upset gate-to-wire threat in today’s opener. 2-Moogie Sun exits three consecutive runner-up finishes over the Golden Gate synthetic surface against similar and has had equal success over turf. Prat lands here. 6-Tom and Jazzy is a multiple winner over the track and distance, had a nice 4-furlong drill on Dec. 14, and picks up the country’s 2023 leading rider Irad Ortiz.
Selections: 1-2-6
Race #2: 2-All That Glory showed good early speed from an outside post and ran well for the place spot on the Nov. 25 debut and figures to be a handful if able to build upon that encouraging unveiling. The Baffert firster 5-New King (by Into Mischief) is a $700k Keeneland purchase who arrives on the scene with some snappy a.m. drills, including a “best of 70” bullet drill on Dec. 23 in 46.4. His stablemate 6-Urban Legend adds blinkers for career start number three, coming off a beaten-favorite disappointing seventh-place finish on Nov. 25 after an encouraging runner-up debut effort. This colt is another Into Mischief offspring that cost a hefty $1.3 million.
Selections: 2-5-6
Race #3: 5-Tio Magico gets a stiff class test this afternoon but exits a sharp gate-to-wire score back on Nov. 2 against N2X types and comes off a career-best grass Beyer (94). 6-Astronaut is improving and now makes his third start of the form cycle for trainer John Shirreffs. The 6-year-old sports a 1-4-0 record from five starts over the Santa Anita turf course. 2-Easter (Fr) has won two straight for D’Amato from off-the-pace in impressive fashion, including notching his first graded-stakes score in the grade 2 Seabiscuit Handicap on Nov. 25.
Selections: 5-6-2
Race #4: 5-Judge Miller finished second in a well-backed Nov. 19 debut in a strong, quickly run six-furlong sprint that stopped the clock in a snappy 1:09.9. The Curlin colt earned an impressive (92) Beyer for that strong try and figures to be tough in this spot if able to avoid a bounce regression. 7-Sneaking Candy debuts for top sire Into Mischief off an encouraging work tab for trainer Mike Puype and draws a cozy outside post. The sample is small, but this jockey-trainer combo is 2 for 4 (50%) with debut runners. 4-Hey Brother is an obvious threat off most recent (90) Beyer and was a troubled trip fourth to top choice in the Nov. 19 debut effort.
Selections: 5-7-4
Race #5: 7-Musical Mischief is unproven on grass but comes off an 11 ½-length allowance 1X romp over the main track at Churchill on Nov. 23 and has the potential to shake loose today for trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Flavien Prat. The lightly raced 3-year-old filly is by Into Mischief who gets an average 13% with his grass route runners. It’s hard to knock 2–Anisette (GB), who has three wins and two runner-up finishes from five U.S starts with four of those finishes coming against graded-stakes competition. 1-Khinjani (GB) draws the rail for the initial stateside start for conditioner Mark Glatt and has been freshened off her last October victory at Windsor. She’s a multiple winner at the 1 ¼-mile trip.
Selections: 7-2-1
Race #6: The Argentinian-bred 1-Subsandor (Arg) is 7 for 12 lifetime and a multiple grade 1 winner in his home country. The 4-year-old colt obviously gets a stiff class test in the first U.S. start but has trained extremely well locally for John Sadler, and Prat sees fit to ride. Horse for course 3-Brickyard Ride is 10 for 15 at Santa Anita and removes the blinkers this afternoon while moving back to the main track. The 6-year-old returns off a mini-freshening and is a gate-to-wire threat for trainer Craig Lewis. 4-Newgrange returns to his preferred oval while making the third start of the form cycle for D’Amato. He projects to get a favorable stalking trip with Irad.
Selections: 1-3-4
Race #7: 4-Beef Winslow has now won two straight after coming up a nose shy across the wire but placed 1st via a DQ on Nov. 19 and now shortens up from a mile to today’s 6 ½-furlong trip. The 4-year-old gelding figures to trip out nicely with Prat from a tracking position and should be tough right back if able to handle the course. 7-Book Smart is unproven over the tricky downhill grass course but the speedster has rattled off five straight wins using the same gun-and-run tactics and exits a career and field’s best (99) Beyer. 3-Minister Shane has run well over the downhill course for D’Amato and makes his second start off the bench this afternoon. Improvement likely.
Selections: 4-7-3
Race #8: The seven-furlong grade 1 Malibu Stakes is projected to have a quick early pace which should only help the chances of 8-Raise Cain. The 3-year-old colt by Violence is 2 for 2 at seven furlongs and has a strong late kick (116 late pace figure). The Ben Colebrook-trained colt has been training super at Keeneland for today’s engagement. Baffert’s 3-Speed Boat Beach appears (at least on paper) to have some strong company on the front end this afternoon, and, if that’s the case, may have a hard time attempting to wire today’s field at seven panels. It would be amiss, however, not to mention that his pairing up of 103 Beyers is the best in this field. His stablemate 2-Fort Bragg steps back up to face graded stakes competition while exhibiting a good confidence-boosting win on Nov. 17 at Del Mar.
Selections: 8-3-2
Race #9: 4-Almendares (GB) steps up off an impressive closing N2X win going this mile trip at Del Mar on Dec. 3 while earning the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (95). The 3-year-old gelding makes his third start of the form cycle for D’Amato this afternoon and could potentially have another forward move left in the tank. 6-Dandy Man Shines (Ire) is in ultra-sharp form having won two straight for Mullins and may be ready to handle these tougher foes. 1-Reiquist ran up on the heels of horses on multiple occasions in his most recent start on Dec. 2 in the grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He shortens up to a mile this afternoon, draws the rail, and is likely to work out a better trip with Irad Ortiz taking over the riding assignment.
Selections: 4-6-1
Race #10: 2-Daddysruby must negotiate an additional furlong today but exits a sharp-looking 5 ¼-length gate-to-wire six-furlong score back at the end of October for Team Miller over this racetrack and has trained well for her return. This gray filly’s ability to sit and pounce also gives Juan Hernandez some riding options, thus making her tough in her first graded stakes try. The stakes-winning 4-Big Pond finished second in her most recent start, and that should set her up nicely today for trainer Tim Yakteen while making the second try off the bench. The Mr. Big filly won her debut over this course. 5-Royal Spa ships in off a six-furlong score at Churchill and has the right closing style to snuggly fit this seven-furlong grade 1 event that appears to be top-heavy with need-the-lead types. The presence of Irad Ortiz almost ensures a favorable journey and a well-timed trip.
Selections: 2-4-5
Race #11: 8-Flight to Qualify (Fr) ran a credible fourth (beaten 2 ¼ lengths) in her Nov. 11 grass debut and is likely to improve substantially in start number two. Trainer Phil D’Amato is a strong 10 for 33 (30%) with a lofty $4.04 ROI, with second-time starters routing on turf at Santa Anita for the past 5 years. The presence of Irad Ortiz adds to the appeal. Her pedigree doesn’t necessarily scream turf router, but 9-Affair moves to grass on the stretch-out in start number two for Sadler and Prat stays aboard. 2-Auratium is one of three fillies trained by Michael McCarthy in the nightcap and the lone runner of the trio with previous racing experience. She moves inside, switches to Hernandez today, and exits a career-best third-place grass try against similar competition.
Selections: 8-9-2
