St Leger, Irish Champion Stakes & Woodbine Euros – by Steven Bonnick

St Leger Stakes

1. Carmers – hasn’t done a lot wrong in four career starts. Won his first three races including at Royal Ascot and ran another career best in the Great Voltigeur last time out when plugging on well on ground that was probably a bit quick. Had Lambourn behind there but that opponent seemed to run a bit flat and I’m not sure he’s certain to confirm the form. Will definitely stay but I think he’s vulnerable to classier opponents.
2. Further – finished behind Carmers at Royal Ascot and ran badly next time out when not right behind Scandinavia. Bounced back to form last time out beating a good older horse impressively off a slow pace but has to reverse form with three of these rivals. Will be a double-figure price, though, and does have a nice German pedigree to keep improving as the season goes on.
3. Lambourn – dual-Derby winner comes here off the back of a disappointing defeat when only fifth behind Carmers at York. Never really picked up that day on fast ground and ran around a bit under pressure, while he also carried a penalty and was unlikely to have been fully would up. I thought he ran well enough considering and we should see him in a much better light here. Trip won’t be an issue and has the best form, although he has a long season and some hard races.
4. Rahiebb – didn’t run at all badly at Royal Ascot behind Carmers (Scandinavia behind) and probably better than he was able to show at Goodwood in a race run in a storm, with the ground possibly going against him. Should get a nice trip around from stall 2 and might outrun big odds.
5. Scandinavia – I really like this horse. Classic O’Brien improver who was too green at Ascot but has sharpened up massively since, beating older horses to land a Group 1 in the Goodwood Cup last time out. No telling where his improvement ends and his form got a lovely boost today with Sweet William winning the Doncaster Cup.
6. Stay True – lightly-raced stablemate of Scandinavia and Lambourn who ran well when in front of the latter in the Great Voltigeur last time out off a break. Should step forward nicely from that and impossible to rule out.
7. Tarriance – nicely-bred sort who has improved with every race this season. Landed a hot handicap at York last time out and is definitely going the right way. Clearly tougher pitched into Group 1 company here but he’s progressive.

Irish Champion Stakes

1. Anmaat – a very talented horse who showed a liking for soft ground when winning the British equivalent of this last year. Has impressed in defeat in both starts this season including last time when running into a top-notch opponent in Ombudsman, pulling well clear of the third. This track should suit and I like the jockey booking for a strong traveller, as this jockey gets horses running for him. His best form is at right-handed tracks but I don’t think this venue will trouble him.
2. Royal Champion – was a good horse at lower levels on synthetics over the winter but only beat one home in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes two back when behind Anmaat. I’m not sure where the last run came from, but he absolutely cruised through the contest and won in a style that you very rarely see in Stakes races, streaking away to win a Group 2 at York. I think he may have enjoyed being held up that day and if this race was run on decent ground I’d be very interested in him at a big price, but he’s a Shamardal out of a Street Cry mare and I think he may want it quicker.
3. Shin Emperor – similar comments probably apply to this Japanese runner. He was third in this race last year but for me this looks a bit stronger. Bombed in the Arc on soft and probably had other excuses there, but it’s something he has to prove.
4. White Birch – fragile but extremely talented horse who finally gets his conditions today. Hasn’t been seen since an unlucky fourth behind Anmaat in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. Would have gone close to winning that with a run in my view and gets the top jockey in Ireland aboard for the first time here. Should get a lovely run at them from stall 5 and it’ll take a good one to beat him.
5. Delacroix – winner of the Eclipse at Sandown when looking like he was beat, eventually picking up to catch Ombudsman close home. Couldn’t live with that rival last time at York but still ran very well in a weird race. Dual course winner but has to overcome the widest draw and his best form is on decent ground. Enough to put me off at the prices as he’s had a long season, too.
6. Hotazhell – fourth in the Saratoga Derby wouldn’t be enough here but he beat Delacroix in the William Hill Futurity on soft ground last season. Ran very well on seasonal debut in the Irish Guineas and wasn’t at his best in the Eclipse when behind Delacroix. Might be much happier on this soft ground – he has the action for it – and no surprise if he was to run a big race.
7. Mount Kilimanjaro – pacemakers have sprung some shocks in Britain this season but hard to see this one repeating the feat.
8. Zahrann – a very likeable type who showed good acceleration and tenacity to quicken through a gap at the Curragh last time out. Rival he beat there was rated just 80 – was 999/1 to place in the betting – and his main rival disappointed, so it’s hard to know what he achieved. Earlier form looks solid, however, and he continues to improve, although he will need to. Unproven on soft.

Summer Stakes

Euros dominate the market here with Wild Desert at the top of the betting, which makes sense really given the record of Appleby and Buick at this venue. He’s done little wrong in three starts and I think the last run was good in a hot race. I’m not sure a two turn mile will suit him and the draw could have been kinder, but clearly has the ability to win.

I like the chances of Thesecretadversary who flopped at odds of 2/13 two back but bounced back in emphatic style last time out. Stall 4 looks perfect for this sharp sort and I think he’ll love the ground. Dettori should have him perfectly spotted, he has form at tight tracks so should enjoy this inner turf course, and a big run looks on the cards

Natalma Stakes

Dance To The Music comes here unbeaten but she’s odds-on currently and doesn’t make much appeal to me at the prices. Her trainer talked her down after her last run, the form of which looks weak, and I think she’s a speedier sort who may not want to go a mile at this stage, even at this sharp track.

Woodbine Mile

Hard to see anything but a Notable Speech win here. Last year’s Guineas winner had started to become a little disappointing but he bounced right back to his best last time out and would have won if he’d got the gaps. This horse has a wicked turn of foot and should be ideally suited to this test. I’m not the type to play at odds-on but I don’t think 4/7 (with the UK bookmakers) is bad at all, as he looks a class above this opposition. Obvious one to single and use in exotics.