PTF here. So happy to have Steven Bonnick back with us for 2024 Royal Ascot. One of the sharpest form analysts I know, he will be taking us through his notes on key contenders for all 35 races this week. For even more information, including Steven’s verdicts and Best Bets from Rob Dove (one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today), please sign up for our In the Money Plus service at inthemoneypodcast.com/plus . His day 3 thoughts are not available…
Norfolk Stakes – 5 Furlongs – Group 2
WHISTLEJACKET looks likely to be a short-priced favourite for this. He’s a full brother to last year’s Windsor Castle winner Little Big Bear, who went on to win a Group 1 in a dazzling freshman season. Little Big Bear was beaten on debut over six furlongs before dropping back in distance and Whistlejacket has followed the same path, bolting up at the second time of asking in a Listed First Flier Stakes. He looked very talented there and should handle the ground, so will be hard to beat with even more progress certain. I have a slight worry that the Irish form didn’t hold up on Tuesday, however.
ARIZONA BLAZE finished second to Whistlejacket in the First Flier having won on debut and has stepped up in class and distance since, winning the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes over 6 furlongs. He made the running into the wind there and battled on very gamely to win by a head. The second and third – who both ran moderately in the Coventry Stakes – didn’t get any other cover either, however, while Arizona Blaze had the run of the race. He has ability but will need more.
ROCK HUNTER was also into a headwind and ran really well out wide up with a fast pace. He was beaten by Enchanting Empress there, as he had been at Ascot, but that rival had the perfect trip out of the breeze and Rock Hunter’s run can be significantly upgraded. He should be just as effective on decent ground.
Richard Fahey won this race in 2021 and 2022 and fields LOOM. This horse looks like one that could keep improving at a rapid rate having stepped forward from a moderate debut to win impressively at Ripon last time out, beating a well-touted rival owned by Wathnan Racing.
Wathnan Racing got their revenge on Fahey in the Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley last time out as SHAREHOLDER beat MOVING FORCE into second. The former came into the race with a tall reputation having cost 460k Euros as a Breeze Up horse and got off the mark despite doing plenty wrong. He was keen in the early stages trapped out on the wing, and hung right under pressure, but was always doing enough to hold the runner up. He’ll need to be more streetwise here, however.
Moving Force was trying to give that rival 7lbs having picked up a penalty for a debut win and emerged as the best horse at the weights, looking much more professional than his rival. The time of the race was OK but suggests both runners will need to improve a little, which is possible at this early stage.
BINADHAM won nicely on debut throwing in some decent splits off a steady pace; the form looks moderate but he will improve.
Comfortable debut winners MILFORD, who should enjoy the ground and is well connected, and THE MAN, who quickened up nicely from the rear off a steady pace, are both worth a second look.
King George V Stakes – 12 Furlongs – Handicap
A middle-distance handicap for three-year-olds, many of whom will end up in Stakes company.
The London Gold Cup, run last month at Newbury, is frequently a good guide to this race and several of these runners contested it last time out.
PONIROS did best of those, making smooth headway off a steady pace to glide into contention. He couldn’t match the pace of the winner but kept on well into second and was strong on the gallop out, giving you hope this trip would suit this improving horse.
CHANTILLY was a place behind in third. He had the run of the race but plugged on well. He should relish this trip but took five attempts to get off the mark and may not have as much progress in him as some of these. He’s in good hands, though, with Ryan Moore on for Aiden O’Brien and looks a stayer.
PERSICA was in fourth but showed impressive pace coming off a slow gallop. He has since come out and boosted the form by winning impressively from the front on the Epsom Derby undercard. He got an easy lead that day and I would worry about him having too much pace for this testing 12f, while that last win means he meets horses that beat him last time on worse terms.
As mentioned, Chantilly is trained by Aiden O’Brien and he has three others, including GASPAR DE LEMOS, who doesn’t look to have progressed this season. His other two have the same owners and similar profiles, both making their handicap debuts.
AUTUMN WINTER steps up half a mile in trip but he might well enjoy it. He had Chantilly a place behind when second in an end-of-season maiden at the Curragh last year and shaped OK last time out, plugging on after travelling well.
His owner-mate GALLANTLY got off the mark in a maiden last time at Chester. The form of that race looks pretty moderate, but the time was good and I really like the way he was powering away late, seeming to relish the extra distance and good ground. His final furlong sectional of 12.06 was 0.89 faster than the penultimate one and I think he could have gone even faster.
GOING THE DISTANCE has won his last three and made a winning return to action this season in a minor handicap at Kempton. He had a nice trip around there close up off a slow pace, but quickened well when asked and won with plenty up his sleeve having done some nice splits. This is a much stronger race but he has a lot of potential.
GILDED WATER represents the same owner, trainer and jockey that won this last year. I was really impressed with how he broke his maiden upped to 10 furlongs for the first-time last time out and he looks as though this trip may bring about more improvement. He put in some good splits there from 3f-1f and hit the line strongly, although his draw could be better.
FOURONEOHFEVER keeps progressing and comes into this race seeking a fourth win in a row. This looks tougher than the races he has been winning though.
FRENCH DUKE has been purchased since his last run and you can understand why as he showed abundant promise. An eye-catcher on his final start last season, he made the running last time out at Newbury and battled on very well when headed, just failing to get back up having been given plenty of rope. He has a slow cadence and should improve for the trip, while a more patient ride wouldn’t go amiss either, particularly if the pace is fast.
Ribblesdale Stakes – 12 Furlongs – Group 2
There are some promising fillies in this line up, none more so than DIAMOND RAIN. She did well to win off a steady pace on debut and improved significantly to land a Listed race at Newbury readily last time. The sectionals and form of that race look good and it’s fair to say we haven’t got anywhere the limits of her ability her. She is bred to be a Group 1 winner, out of an Oaks winner, but my one doubt would be the trip at this stage of her career – she has a lot of speed and might be better at ten furlongs for now.
She had SIYOLA back in third that day and that filly ran a solid race on only her second start. She should improve again but it’ll be hard for her to reverse the form.
KALPANA looked good when routing her field in a handicap on seasonal debut and was sent off at a short price for the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes next time out. She couldn’t quite reel in her front-running stablemate there but ran another fine race, clocking a big timefigure and pulling miles clear of the third. She’s not certain to want this trip either, but clearly has a big engine.
PORT FAIRY and FOREST FAIRY met in the Cheshire Oaks last time with the latter coming home narrowly ahead. She has since disappointed in the Epsom Oaks and the form of that race looks weak to me.
I thought DANIELLE might win the Oaks but she couldn’t get the job done in the Lingfield Oaks Trial last time out. I don’t think she did too much wrong there in a weird race, probably making the best move before flattening out, and I wasn’t sure she was really in love with the track or ground. This course should suit her a little better but the ground will be quick again.
YOU GOT TO ME received a canny ride in that Lingfield Oaks Trial, holding off the closers having gone well clear, and followed that effort up with a good 4th in the Epsom equivalent. She was trapped a bit wide without any cover there but moved up smoothly, after which she struggled to match some classier sorts. This looks easier for her and she might have more to come.
RUBIES ARE RED was a fast finishing second at Lingfield but flopped subsequently at Epsom. I can’t imagine either of those tracks will have suited her and Ascot may see her in a better light.
At big prices, LAVA STREAM interests me. This filly is improving at a rate of knots and I was impressed with the turn of foot she showed to run down a solid yardstick that had the run of the race last time. This trip might be a tad far for this speedy sort, but her half-brother has won over it and she wasn’t stopping last time – I feel like this track will suit her perfectly.
Ascot Gold Cup – 20 Furlongs – Group 1
The highlight of the meeting for many see KYPRIOS return to attempt to defend the crown he won in 2022. He missed this race last year but did run really well at this track on Champions’ Day in the Long Distance Cup. He has won both starts this season but the form of those efforts is a long way below what is required to win a race like this, and is some distance behind his very best form. I thought he made fairly hard work of beating an inferior stablemate last time out and couldn’t entertain backing him at 11/10.
Several have a chance against him, including TRAWLERMAN, who conquered Kyprios in the Long Distance Cup last year. That was a very odd race as they raced well strung out off a fast pace, with Trawlerman looking as though he was a bit closer than ideal to the gallop. Kyprios looked sure to win when coming through inside the final two and going clear, but Trawlerman rallied very gamely to get back up. He’s had one run since, a perfectly acceptable effort in Dubai, and has untapped potential over extreme distances.
Trawlerman’s stablemate GREGORY was an impressive winner at this meeting last year but things didn’t quite go right for him after, although I think his last two runs can be upgraded. He looked a thorough stayer at times last year and confirmed that view with a strong-finishing effort in the Yorkshire Cup on his return as a 4-year-old. He has the scope to improve again over this distance but his price looks about right.
VAUBAN was also a winner at this meeting last year and finished one place in front of Gregory in the Yorkshire Cup. He made much more of a fist of winning the race than Gregory did, however, and probably paid for those exertions late on. He is a very classy hurdler but does have plenty of speed and I have a slight stamina doubt over him at this extreme distance.
The next three are all closely matched. COLTRANE was just touched off in this last year but retains potential over this distance on fast ground and looks sure to run well. He was a winner on his return to action in the Sagaro Stakes and should step forward for that. CAIUS CHORISTER and SWEET WILLIAM were back in second and third there, with the former closing off nicely from the back of the field.
Those two rivals met next time out in the Henry II, with Sweet William turning the form around. However, I felt that Caius Chorister was ridden a bit too close to the pace there and was too keen as a result, and something of a sitting duck into the straight for Sweet William to pick off, which he duly did. I’m fairly sure Caius Chorister will be held up here and I think this strong travelling mare might be fair better suited to those tactics. The figures from that race, and the Sagaro, were both excellent.
Britannia Stakes – 8 Furlongs – Handicap
An open affair.
INVOLVEMENT ran a fine race on handicap debut at Haydock last time out. He was probably a bit far behind the front-running winner in the conditions off an even pace, but managed to erode the deficit to 1.5 lengths at the line with some good splits 3-1f out. This horse looks a lovely mover who should be even better returned to fast ground; he’ll relish a strong gallop and has the right jockey for it.
QIRAT looks likely to go off favourite here following an impressive win at Goodwood on his handicap debut. I really like how he surged through the pack that day and powered home with his head down, showing a fine attitude. He’s out of a Group 1 winner dam over this distance and should have more to come still over this trip as he matures.
Owner-mate STARLORE finished behind him but caught the eye travelling well early in the straight. He got no run at a key time but made a bit of a move up before fading late on. He has loads of ability but his attitude is questionable.
DASHING DARCEY looked improved for a step up to a mile last time out having seemingly not handled the track at Newmarket. He made no mistake at Haydock last time out, travelling strongly and quickening clear to record a good timefigure with a strong final furlong.
ARCTIC THUNDER was a winner here last time and has some form with 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech that reads quite well. I would have a worry about the mile distance for him, but he might be OK if ridden a bit more conservatively.
I was really impressed with how VOLTERRA put the race to bed last time out in a mile handicap at Newmarket, throwing in two 11 second furlongs despite having race up with the pace, the latter of which his rivals couldn’t live with. The time was excellent even in the context of a 9lb higher mark and SKUKUZA has since come out and franked the form over the same course and distance.
SKUKUZA settled better that day than he had against VOLTERRA, ridden with more restraint, and definitely has plenty more to come still for waiting tactics. A hold up ride off a strong pace here looks sure to see him in his best light.
MICKLEY looks a really interesting runner. Well backed on his penultimate start, where he overcame a steady pace, he improved a good chunk again last time to win a handicap at Doncaster in a fast time with a load in hand. A 7lb rise for that looks lenient and he shapes as though he will relish this mile distance.
Hampton Court Stakes – 10 Furlongs – Handicap
A fascinating contest where Classic form and top handicap form meets.
I mentioned the London Gold Cup earlier in this piece and the impressive winner KING’S GAMBIT runs here. He showed a tremendous turn of foot to land that prize and should be plying his trade in Group 1 races by the end of the season given the manner in which he handled talented rivals last time out. The sectionals from that run make for very exciting reading and he looks the one to beat here, although he has been well found in the market.
FIRST LOOK should provide stiff opposition. He finished runner up in the French Derby last time out having shown promise at lower levels prior, and just abouts sets the standard on ratings. I have a few doubts though. I’m not sure that French Derby form is that good and that run was achieved on heavy ground, while his previous run behind Darlinghurst took a knock on Tuesday when that rival finished last in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
BRACKEN’S LAUGH continues to improve and was probably a bit unlucky not to win the Dee Stakes last time out. He beat King’s Gambit in receipt of six pounds on his debut last season and should be in the mix here provided he handles this quicker going.
JAYAREBE looked very useful when bounding away from his field in the Feilden Stakes on seasonal debut but could not match that form behind Bracken’s Laugh at Chester last time out. I think a return to a more conventional track on firm ground will suit him and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made his presence felt.
BELLUM JUSTUM represents the Epsom Derby form, but I don’t think he showed enough there to be of interest here. He is talented but needs a fairly big career best.
One that interests me is TARAJ. He progressed steadily as a juvenile and made a big step up last time out in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal debut. Held up off a steady enough pace, he put in some good sectionals against top colts and wasn’t beaten far at all, particularly as he should improve for the run. The winner of that race, Los Angeles, went on to finish third in the Derby and Taraj should have more to offer.
Buckingham Palace Stakes – 7 Furlongs – Handicap
A big field here but mostly exposed performers.
ENGLISH OAK has improved again this season, as you’d anticipate from a horse trained by Ed Walker, and was most impressive bolting up at odds-on in a minor handicap at Haydock last time out. This is a lot tougher but he has some good course form and should be very competitive.
A key form race for this would appear to be the trustatrader.com Handicap run at Newmarket on May 18th. CARRYTHEONE was on top there and may confirm the form given the manner of that victory. He travelled smoothly at the rear of the field and showed a good turn of foot to mow down the leaders late one, running some fine sectionals in the process. He’s not been with Michael Bell long and I get the feeling they may have found the key to him, holding him up off the pace in a tongue-tie and hood. He is unexposed under such conditions and a mark of 101 is not beyond him on his best form.
GORAK finished second in that Newmarket race and gives some substance to the form, looking well handicapped on his best form. He was 12th in this race last year but finished 1st of six on his side of the draw and is now 9lbs lower. He should show up well again.
DIVINE LIBRE was favourite for that contest having been most impressive on his return to action at Chester the time before. He was never on the bridle there and was never going better than the final 100 yards. I think this track will suit him, but I’m not sure why he’s half the price of Carrytheone.
KINGS TIME looks an intriguing Irish contender. He made a winning handicap debut last year before bombing out on his next start, but something was clearly amiss there as he bounced back to form at Cork last time on his first start of 2024. Always travelling well off a steady pace there, he showed a devastating turn of foot to seal the race inside the final two furlongs, the visual impression borne out by sectionals, blasting a 10.97 and 10.79 from 3f-1f out. The form is starting to work out and this horse might well be able to defy a 12lb rise.
