PTF here. So happy to have Steven Bonnick back with us for 2024 Royal Ascot. One of the sharpest form analysts I know, he will be taking us through his notes on key contenders for all 35 races this week. For even more information, including Steven’s verdicts and Best Bets from Rob Dove (one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today), please sign up for our In the Money Plus service at inthemoneypodcast.com/plus . His thoughts on the final day are below…
Chesham Stakes – 7 Furlongs – Listed Race
A Listed race confined to horses whose sires won over 10 furlongs or further. This can be won be a debutant, so check if any of the newcomers are strong in the betting.
Two progeny of Frankel out of Dark Angel mares head the market for this contest with AGE OF GOLD, the colt, representing Godolphin. He is unbeaten in his career having made a winning start in a minor event at Yarmouth last time, the form of which looks pretty solid. The time and sectionals back up a pleasing visual performance with this horse doing his best work late on and he should progress nicely from that.
I loved the debut from the filly BEDTIME STORY. Facing an odds-on stablemate, she was far enough back off steady fractions but the manner in which she made up the ground to close and then power clear was that of a Group 1 horse. She’s out of a top-class sprinter but clearly has a fine blend of speed and stamina and I don’t think dropping half-a-furlong in trip off a good pace will bother her a bit. My only slight concern was the form of the Irish juveniles, but that seems allayed by the win of Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes on Friday.
PENTLE BAY is another horse who made a pleasing winning debut. He was held up off the good pace that day but probably had plenty to do even allowing for the gallop, and I liked that he was able to hit under 12 seconds for the penultimate furlong given the pace. A lesser horse would have lost that race and he was doing all of his best work late, suggesting a step up in trip would suit.
Hardwicke Stakes – 12 Furlongs – Group 2
Talented middle-distance performers here.
Last year’s St Leger winner CONTINUOUS sets a strong standard having ended last season finishing fifth in the Arc. He will presumably come on a little for the run here, which makes him unappealing from a betting perspective at the current odds.
Timeform have MIDDLE EARTH needing to find just 4lbs to bridge the gap and he may be able to do so with improvement likely and a run under his belt. Progressive last season, I thought he produced a remarkable effort to win off a crawl on his return, running 33.78 for the final three furlongs to catch a subsequent easy Listed winner who himself came home in a brisk 34.14. A stronger gallop will suit this two-time 14 furlong winner just as well and he’ll love the ground and track.
DESERT HERO was a winner for the King at this meeting last year and progressed for that run into Stakes company. He was even money to beat Middle Earth last time out in the Aston Park Stakes but bombed out badly and now has plenty to prove.
I like the way ISLE OF JURA went about his business last time out at Goodwood, extending his winning run to four. A big improver in the Middle East over the winter, he was weak in the betting the last day but got going nicely late to mow down some horses that had a tactical edge on him. He’ll need to improve on that effort here, however, and the form has taken some knocks.
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – 6 Furlongs – Group 1
A pretty desperate renewal of this race.
MILL STREAM seems favourite almost by default. Don’t get me wrong, he is a good horse, but I’m not sure I’d ever have had him as the chalk for a Group 1 and I don’t think scrambling home against the disappointing SHOULDVBEENARING warrants him being in that position. He can win this, sure, but I don’t see any appeal in him as a betting proposition.
The admirable KINROSS is next up in the betting. This guy loves this track and probably has the best form, but he’s 7-years-old now and I’m not sure a sharp six furlongs has ever been his bag. He could only finish seventh in this race last year.
MITHBAAHY got a peach of a ride last time out receiving maximum cover from the wind and I think he was flattered to win the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes. He should get some cover from the breeze again here but it won’t be as much of an edge as it was that day and I don’t think he is a Group 1 horse.
SHARTASH was a solid horse in Ireland for Johnny Murtagh but looks to have taken his form to a new level following a gelding operation for Archie Watson. He hacked up in a conditions race at Thirsk on his first start for the yard and I was impressed with how he travelled and quickened in a Listed race at Haydock last time out. He should have no trouble with six furlongs and while he hasn’t shown any signs of being a Group 1 horse yet, he does at least still have some angles to think he could improve.
BELIEVING should be favourite for this. She was just touched off by Regional in the Haydock Sprint Cup last year, so has Group 1 form, and I think she is a better horse this year. She ran a fine race here on Tuesday in the King Charles III Stakes to finish fourth, running on well. I thought she shaped as though the extra furlong would suit her there and I like the quick return angle, which has proved fruitful several times over the past years.
ART POWER was a course and distance winner here last year and ran well into the wind on his return at his beloved Curragh last time out. He’d probably want the ground softer than this, however.
KHAADEM caused a shock in this last year but showed little on his sole start of 2024.
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS was behind Mill Stream last time out but showed plenty of pace that day and might still be improving. It’ll be hard to make the running here than it has been at Newmarket and York on his last two starts, however.
Jersey Stakes – 7 Furlongs – Group 3
This looks an excellent renewal of contest over an intermediate distance of seven furlongs.
RIVER TIBER was a winner at this meeting last year and placed twice at Group 1 level subsequently. He missed most of his Fall targets and didn’t return until last month when running a fine third in the Irish 2000 Guineas, form which has worked out well. He hit a bit of a flat spot there but was doing his best work late and should improve for the run, although I’m not sure he wants this drop in trip.
HAATEM finished in front of him that day and probably had the run of the race there settled nicely in third off a steady pace. With that said, he had everything in trouble when he moved up smoothly to lead and went clear, only to be run down by stablemate Rosallion, a Group 1 winner here earlier in the week. This admirable horse had previously been third in the English Guineas and sets a very fair standard despite not quite having the scope to improver that some of his rivals do; I do not see the drop in trip being an issue but a 3lb penalty will make things a little tougher.
Ralph Beckett is having a good week and TASK FORCE looks like he has prospects of improving things further. A well bred sort out of a Group 1 winner, he raced exclusively over six furlongs as a juvenile, placing in the Group 1 Middle Park on his final start as a 2-year-old. He likely found the gruelling mile in a well run 2000 Guineas a bit of a culture shock, although I don’t think he ran badly be any means first time out for the year. The drop to this trip should suit and I think he has the ability to compete here.
NIGHT RAIDER made waves over the winter and spring with two runaway wins on synthetics, throwing in some lighting-fast splits in the process. He found it all too much in the Guineas on his first run on turf, pulling too hard close up to the pace and weakening tamely 3f out, ultimately tailing off. I think he’ll show more here, but clearly he has a question to answer now.
BOILING POINT hasn’t quite shown his full capabilities on the track to date, I feel. He was better last time though, winning a small field Listed event with plenty up his sleeve having travelled well. I think he could do better still settled off a decent pace with plenty of cover which he should get here.
Wokingham Stakes – 6 Furlongs – Handicap
There is not a lot of pace in this for a sprint with such a huge field, and the majority of the pace appears to be low.
ALBASHEER heads the market following a productive winter on synthetics. He has some good handicap form from last season and looks like he got bogged down in heavy ground in France last time out in what was likely just a prep run for this. He is 2lb higher than when finishing in mid pack off this mark last year but appears to have improved based on his huge speed-figure three back. That was achieved on synthetics but he has every chance off a mark of 100 if he can replicate that form back on grass.
DARK TROOPER’S last run received a high rating from the Racing Post, but Timeform were less keen and I’m inclined to side with them. I’m not sure the form is particularly strong, but this horse was a course and distance winner last September and looked unlucky not to finish closer in a Group 3, again over C&D, on his final start for Ed Walker. Now with Alban de Mieulle, he should run his race again.
SAINT LAWRENCE won this last year off a mark of 100 and is 3lbs higher this time around. He wasn’t beaten far in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest next time around but has only been ticking over since, not really cutting much ice in handicap company off big weights. It wouldn’t surprise me if he bounced back to form returned to this course and distance.
APOLLO ONE finished second in this race last year but is 5lb higher now. He is a consistent sort who should run his race, but I just feel he is vulnerable off a mark of 102.
LETHAL LEVI looked improved for blinkers last time out in the HKJC World Pool Handicap. He was only fifteenth in this last year but certainly has the ability to win off his mark if the headgear works again.
He had RUMSTAR and FERROUS behind him that day, and the latter makes some appeal. Progressive over the winter and often displaying a good turn of foot, he was a bit out of his ground in that Newbury but travelled up well and made a nice move before flattening out a bit closer home. He will come on for that run and should be much better off a strong pace.
MUMS TIPPLE should also go very well at the prices. He wasn’t beaten far into fourth off 100 in this last year and is now 5lb lower. His run three back when held up off a steady pace very much suggests he is back in fine fettle and his two runs since then have been good, as he patently hated the track last time.
Golden Gates Stakes – Handicap – 10 Furlongs
A competitive handicap confined to the 3-year-olds.
HAND OF GOD should be going off favourite here if the current betting is any guide. He looks an improving sort and I like the way he went about his business at Sandown last time, dominating a small field on what was maybe a dead rail and winning in a good time without being fully extended. The form is a mixed bag, with most of the field bombing out but the 3rd going on to finish 2nd in the Italian Derby. He looks like quite a busy sort to me and I’m not convinced he will stay a testing 10 furlongs, but he should rate higher than a current mark of 91 by the end of the season.
OLD FAITHFUL is extremely quirky. A winner of his last two starts, it’s possible he hasn’t really been suited by those small field events where he can’t get a toe into the race for long enough. This horse needs to be delivered right on the line as he doesn’t do anything in the lead and those tactics might be hard to execute around here. He’s talented but the price doesn’t do a lot for me.
APPROVAL was impressive when winning a Novice at the fourth time of asking last time out but I felt he had everything go his way that day, left alone in the lead on the heavily favoured rail. The time was fine but this is a very different ask off a mark of 90 in a hot handicap and at single figure prices he doesn’t make much appeal to me.
PALACE GREEN has clearly been well regarded by connections and gets Oisin Murphy up. He was smashed up in the betting to win a warm Novice on his seasonal debut and ran an excellent race last time in what looked a good heat at York. Held up in the rear, he made a nice sweeping move down the outside to lead but didn’t really get home over the 12 furlong distance. Dropping back to this distance will suit him, although I think others may be better handicapped.
WHISKEY PETE was pulled up in that York race but ran a bit better at Epsom last time. Trapped wide off a slow pace, he had no cover there and could only plod on into seventh, five places and five lengths behind PORTSMOUTH, who ran a huge race.
PORTSMOUTH was held up in that contest and had no chance given the gallop, so the fact he could finish second and pull so far clear with the winner is deeply encouraging. A mark of 87 underrates him and I think he should be running a big race here.
As too should PRIMO LARA. This strong travelling sort also has a wicked turn of foot and he has progressed quickly from an opening handicap mark of 77 and is up another 9lb for an impressive win at York last time, but that looks fully warranted to me. He should relish this type of test and looks far too big at double figure prices currently, even if his draw is a bit lower than ideal.
Queen Alexandra Stakes – 21.5 Furlongs – Conditions Race
The longest race on the flat in the British calendar. This is similar to a high level Allowance contest where you’ll get some Stakes horses taking on lesser horses from handicaps.
DAWN RISING was the winner of this last year. He’s not done a lot this season but clearly looks to have been prepping for this race, and showed a little more last time off a steady pace behind Gold Cup winner Kyprios. His yard is having a poor week, however.
RUN FOR OSCAR should have won this last year but met trouble at a key stage. He’s also not done a lot this season but is another who looks to have been laid out for this. He was never put in the race last time over half this distance and you can expect much better from him here.
TRUSHAN and TASHKHAN will need a miracle with the weather and probably won’t run if the ground remains fast.
UXMAL represents the same yard as Dawn Rising and if not for the stable form I’d be a bit warmer on him at the odds. He’s unexposed as a stayer and his form with Al Nayyir reads very well in the context of this race. He made a really pleasing return to action in a Conditions race at Killarney last time, albeit with the run of the race. He’s too big if the yard shows any signs of life on Friday.
POSTILEO is one of several Galileos in the field and his run over 12 furlongs here last year behind Al Qareem looks good. He was fourth behind QUEENSTOWN but that was clearly a float up for this and he should improve again.
QUEENSTOWN is easily the most interesting runner here for me. Another Galileo, this filly is bred on the same Galileo-Danehill Dancer cross as Dawn Rising so may well relish this trip. She has improved with every run of her career and has had Dawn Rising, Run For Oscar and Postileo behind her last season. Indeed, the only horse that has beaten her over staying trips this year is the mighty Kyprios. I like she has loads more scope than most of this field and is by far the most likely winner here for me.
