On this week’s show: – Fair Odds Line for Kentucky Oaks – Listener / Viewer Q/A Segment
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The Matt Bernier Show | Ep. 112 | April 18, 2022
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I’m glad that these people that can’t seem to understand the difference between a fair value line and morning line are in the same beting pool as I am. This leads to great opportunities on Derby weekend!
It is very strange! And I agree that I wish they bet more hahaha.
Enjoy your analysis on big races but I’d ask you to look at the oaks a little deeper. I know your talking about what you consider your fair odds but I think you might be missing something.
Think your correct in the Secret Oath idea. Not be surprised if the overall ratings at Oaklawn are at least 3 points down as a track this year. Kathleen O and Nest were very impressive LO, number wise and visually. What I think your missing is Echo Zulu. Visually and number wise her 2yo races were impressive but visually mostly the wow factor. Her BC could be on of the best of any Juvenile filly ever. Time wise she has run 2 grade 1’s in under 1:36 8f. Stats wise she is impressive considering 4 tracks in 6 races.
What most people are not seeing is how much physically she has grown. The post parade in the FG oaks it really showed, and look at KK at Churchill video he recently posted. She appears to be bigger and stronger that her dad at this age. Maturity from 2 to 3 is too often overlooked. Nest and Kathleen O are physically structured but neither has yet matured like Echo. Steve know this and I believe if he thought she need 2 preps for the Oaks she would have got them. Work tab doesn’t show any breaks to suggest she needed another race.
The Monomy Girl/Justify double paid 7-1 and this field doesn’t have a Justify as far as the Dead money public image. 17-1 on the Asmussen double I’ll be 17k richer.