At ThoroPACE, our main focus is to find runners hindered by the pace dynamics in recent race(s) and expected to get a better pace scenario today.
But recently, we’ve examined how shippers from one racing circuit to another fare. We identified dozens of track-to-track shippers with: a) 100+ starters; and b) a positive $2 win ROI.
During 2019-2025, shippers from the tracks on the left to those on the right have started 5,156 times. They have produced 17.7% winners and a $2 win ROI of $2.46 (95% CI: $2.18 – $2.78).
AQU > OP
CNL > CD, KD
DEL > MNR, SAR, TIM
DMR > OP
GP > DMR, OP
IND > ELP, MNR, MVR
KD > AQU, TP
KEE > AQU, BTP, OP
LAD > OP
LRL > TP
MTH > FL
PEN > MNR
PIM > MTH
PRM > RP
PRX > GP
TAM > AQU, FL
TIM > LRL
TP > ELP, OP, PID, WO
TUP > ASD, PRM
WRD > LS, RP
Will this pattern continue in the future? Who knows? But the following is somewhat promising. These shippers were profitable:
- in each year from 2019 through 2025
- in 23 of the 28 calendar quarters
- in short fields (<=7 runners) and large fields (>=8 runners)
- among runners going sprint to sprint, sprint to route, route to sprint and route to route.
- among runners going dirt to dirt, dirt to turf, dirt to synthetic, turf to dirt, turf to turf, turf to synthetic, synthetic to dirt and synthetic to synthetic
- among runners turning back in distance and stretching out
- among runners going off at <10/1 and those going off at 10/1 or more
We will be keeping an eye on this in 2026, and it may be part of our wagering strategy if results hold up in 2026. We’ll report back later this year.
