Race 8: Overskate Stakes $100k 7.5f (T – inner)
Pure pace play to kick things off with many in here that look like they need the lead.
- Top Choice: Eskiminzin (6-1) The pace sets up nicely for a stalking ride right behind the front running pack. With the quick first turn in the short 7.5 configuration, we have to hope this one can tuck in and save some ground. The recent early pace figures should let the jockey (Moran) get early position. As for the past lackluster finishes in the last two events, I can excuse those based on the class of Pink Lloyd and Silent Poet.
- Next Best: Royal Wedding (20-1) Last out will excuse the try on Tapeta. Two back got the win. Three back was against the pace flow, tending to the hot pace and was out kicked by Court Return (a surprise Graded Stakes contender). Same thing goes for the race four back. Today projects to have minimal closers and pace pressure.
Race 9: Princess Elizabeth Stakes $250k 8.5 (T)
Huge stand against for us at 7/5 with plenty of other 2 year olds with upside.
- Top Choice: El Bayern (8-1) Barn is rolling along nicely in last two week sending out two winners out of five runners. Today this one should get a dream setup and stalk the pace nicely. Outside speed in here will be forced to make an early move and fade late. This one should be fun to watch rolling late down the late.
- Best Value: Emmeline (20-1) Jockey last out was indecisive in the opening stages, rushing up, dropping back, rushing up again, then ranging up. The result was a very flat effort. There’s still some upside if this horse can get a clean ride with a drop back one run type. Value line stands around 8-1.
- Beatable: Curlin’s Catch (3-1) Likely to be a shorter in price. Limited excuses last out. Our other two top picks will have more favorable trips.
- Beatable Favorite: #4 Dreaming of Drew (7/5) There was no excuse in the race two back to lose that event. The PP’s are deceiving as this one was kicking clear and the leader for a 1/16th, but got very leg weary. We saw the same thing last out, dream rail ride, and couldn’t figure out how to switch over leads. The stretch out does not project to flatter this horse especially after having to navigate two TURNS! How in the world is this horse 7/5?
Race 10: Clm $15k 6f (AW)
Plenty of presser types in here that should create a nice pace scenario for a longer priced horse.
- Next Best: #11 Drink in My Hand (10-1) Has been running steady races at the 6f and 7f events on the Tapeta. The 5.5f events were too short, not allowing for the full closing ability. This 9 year old’s figures are solid and repeatable. Today gets to sit off the pace and make a wide move. Has to still work out a trip and hope the pace in front heats up. Value line at 8-1.
- Best Value: #7 Executive Insight (20-1) The pace drawn to the inside could setup nicely for a long shot to blow up the tote board coming down the lane late. In the last two races, there’s been zero pace to close into. Today should get carbon copy of the event three back. Overall figures are light a 5 points below the rest on the Beyer scale, but has run the winning number needed today.
- Fade Contender: Studio B (9/2) The trainer at 180+ days off into the claim is winning at 27% (n=49) with a $1.84 ROI. That tells me the hit rate is high but the ROI won’t be there in the long wrong backing his runners coming off these long layoffs. Also the break has to be perfect because the horse just to the outside, a favorite contender, will be gunning to take over that rail.
Race 11: Alw 5f (inner T)
Simple approach in this turf event.
- Most Logical: #6 Fairywren (5-1) Lightly raced four year old is always around late. Last out had the worst of trips, stalking the pace nicely but ran into two horrible spots. My guess is they will make sure to send this one or stay wide to avoid trouble. The figures are best on paper and this one is poised for a great running today. Value line is around 5/2.
- Next Best: #2 Spun Glass (10-1) Comes off a nice freshening after the maiden win. Looks to be very fast on paper in the early parts of races per TimeForm US. Morning workouts over at Fairhill look strong as well. Trainer is sending out Woodbine runners at a 33% win clip. 10-1 might be a gift here with the Husbands aboard considering these two are winning 40% of the time (n=15 starts).
