Race 8: Ontario Derby 9f (AW)
Might Heart and Belichick face off.
- Most Logical: #6 Mighty Heart (7/2) Pretty straight forward for this horse with upside left: went WAY too fast last out, and Fukumoto likely got the boot for that move, Hernandez gets the leg up. Today will have limited pace pressure today and back to a surface that Josie Carroll said woke this one up when shipping north.
- Best Value: #7 Dune of Pilat (20-1) Last out was IMPRESSIVE to finish where he did, “wide all the way around, against pace flow and outside wasn’t where you wanted to be on day (finishers 1,2,3,4 all ran on inside of track that was heavy, 34-1 shot finished a close 3rd and was helped by inside trip). Tripped last 1/16 and lost all momentum.” Shipped over here and gets second start. Value line is 10-1 and the upside is still known. I don’t recommend leaving off tickets.
- Beatable Favorite: #1 Field Pass (3-1) Second time on the synth and is going to be well over bet due to the deep graded stakes races and company. However, those horses coming out of those events are good but not impossible to beat. We see this type of group every year where they look “classy” on paper due to big days like Derby Day but end up being good but not great. Also, this event comes after a long campaign for this 3 year old solely focused on the turf – the Tapeta entry an afterthought?
Race 9: Kennedy Road Stakes 6f (AW)
I learned my lesson and won’t be betting against this one.
- Most Logical: Pink Lloyd (7/5) This race sets up perfect for this stud of a horse: drawn outside, speed inside, freshener, will be a square even money.
- Next Best: Roaring Forties (20-1) This one has been on my radar all season since the annual debut. 8/15 running was coming off 6 month layoff, 9/5 bad post resulted in wide trip, ran well 10/11 too far. Today will get a much easier trip with the only speed this one and getting the rail is Silent Poet, who we’re strongly against. Wire to wire is the only way this one gets the job done.
- Beatable: Silent Poet (2-1) Off this horse after the trip note from the last race and the speed Roaring Forties. This one shouldn’t get the easy lead like last time. From my DRF Formulator for 10/18, “HUGE downgrade with the pace flow, was only speed and got away with easy fractions”.
Race 10: Bessarabian Stakes 7f (AW)
Speed signed on for this competitive bunch.
- Best Value/Could be Favored: #2 Boardroom (10-1) This horse looks to be the goods. Last out was against the pace flow and still pulled off a monster running. Two back had a piece of equipment break and still ran a good third. Value line is 5/2. Simple, bet it.
- Next Best: #1 Souper Escape (3-1) Should get a very clean trip breaking from the rail with speed. This one’s overall figures look best and the distance should fit nicely. Value line is 4-1.
- Exotic Use: #7 Our Secret Agent (20-1) Best draw for a closer in this event with all the potential speeds drawn down on the inside. Last out showed can run on well. Connections are dangerous and 20-1 feels like good value in the event of an absolute pace melt down.
Race 11: MC $10k 7f (AW)
No strong opinions so throwing out a few considerations
- Consideration: #3 Candy’s Dream (3-1) Most Logical, class drop, speedy enough
- Consideration: #10 Final Strike (8-1) Gelding that looks to continue to improve with a strong recent work.
- Consideration: #9 Romeo’s Law (30-1) Gets a huge class relief and has shown ability for speed. Sometimes just getting to the lead is enough in these ranks with horses who don’t like to pass.
Note to readers: there’s great value throughout this card. Shoot me a DM or tweet if you’re curious about other races.
