The Recap from 6/13/2020
Race shape was something we had nailed yesterday. We got one winner home (heavy favorite) and in the final race we had our top choice come shooting up the rail to finish a game second at 24-1. Even though the ROI doesn’t reflect it, we believe the process was right and days like that in the long run will provide positive results.
Thanks for everyone reaching out on Twitter and The Comments, that’s what makes this so much fun.
Special shout out to Emma-Jayne for dominating this circuit so far, running 57% of the time in the money with 25% winners!
Race 7: OC $40k 6f (AW)
Pace seems a bit peddling with a straight forward winner.
- Best Bet #5 Golden Garter (3-1): On first pass, I didn’t like this horse as I tend to shy away from those who can’t win their first race over a handful of tries. However, watching the replay in the winning effort shows a completely different horse. The last effort at Woodbine (11/27) was a struggle to control the horse’s speed. The jockey spent the entire backstretch tugging on the horse (great camera work Woodbine!) to only get burned up going too fast and fading during the final stages of the race. Now to the latest Gulfstream effort where the running line in the PP’s don’t do that effort justice. Throughout the entire race, the horse relaxes! Breaks beautifully and then settles, letting the rail favorite get a length lead. And when asked by the jockey, a new dimension for this horse is highlighted. She effortlessly passes horses when asked and cruises home a winner. With the ability to relax, becoming a “push button horse”, having the grueling 7f recent effort, and a huge bullet workout on the tab, we’ll take anything at even more than 2-1.
- Exotic Use #8 Discreet Bear (20-1): This is a pure chaos play. The Beyers are on par compared to the other competition. If things heat up in front, this should open the door wide for this closer to clunk up for the minor places.
- To Watch & Fade #7 Gizmo Flash (6-1): important to note this horse scratched out of the Star Shoot stakes from yesterday. The previous racing lines give the appearance this one might get the lead. Thanks to TimeForm US pace figures, those “ones” seen at the pace calls are significantly lower than the other competition here. Expect a stalking trip.
Race 8: Alw n1x 6.5 (T)
The lone turf event of the day with a nice field that is hard to sort on paper. We’ll be looking for a price as the favorites in here look beatable.
- Best Value #6 Tomcat Black (12-1) the race was over for Tomcat Black before the assistant starters jumped off the gate. This one got smashed by the outside drawn horse: pushed two paths towards rail, took up, and jived back on stride. The lack of turf tries is a bit of a question mark, but we get the nice price to test how good this one really is on the new surface. The all-weather tries yielded TimeForm US figures on par with the rest of the bunch. The blinkers go on and I expect a step forward off that terrible luck in the last.
- Most Logical: #7 Royal Laser (4-1) From a pace perspective, best in the bunch with strongest form. The long layoff makes us pause as this was attempted last year with lackluster results. But we’ll hope that form returns and setups up nicely.
- Exotic Use: #1 Nashtrick (6-1) Tried closing into a blue coded fractions on TimeForm US figures and will give this one another shot 2nd off they layoff.
Race 9: 7f OC $75k n1x
Another Ward speedster may wire this field. However some speed drawn both to the far outside and inside may change the race shape drastically. This race will be determined in the first few hundred yards.
- Most Logical: #2 Artemus Citylimits (2-1) Ward has shown this meet he can get his speed horses to break well (no surprise there). Best speed with this horse and the early spring effort projects another step forward.
- Best Value: #8 Muchmorethanthis (8-1) With the recent Fairhill works and the gelding, I expect a step forward for this one at a nice price. The Speed is drawn to the outside and inside in this event, with Muhcmorethanthis being the lone closer. Expect to see the 9 dictate this race. We estimate the 9 will send hard to gain position, forcing a few of the inside speeds (2,3,5,6) to press the issue and not leave the door wide open for the 9 to get too far ahead. If that’s the case, this race sets up perfect for Muchmorethanthis at a price.
- Beatable Favorite: #3 Clayton (5/2) Scratched out of the Woodstock Stakes from yesterday and shows up here. Trainer is 1 for 34 with 3 year old layoffs of 90+ days. The debut race was visually impressive, but with that stat and the lack of confidence to go toe-to-toe with stakes caliber, I think this race is just a stepping stone to bigger events later this year.
Race 10: OC $40k 6.5f (AW)
Not a single horse has started in 2020 except for one horse that was beaten 28 lengths in the lone 2020 start. Very hard to say how the pace will unfold with many horses having unexposed form and some rust to knock off. Tread lightly.
- Most Logical #3 Torpedo Max (4-1) Trainer adds the Lasix and Gelds this one from the last time on the track. The recent work tab shows an improvement since the last start. Emma-Jayne is called up and is riding lights out.
- Next Best #4 Bela Falls (10-1) Purely a speed play here where on paper we don’t see much pace pressure from the other contenders. But remember, we don’t feel 100% confident that pace will shake out the way we see it.
Wagering Budget $50
No late pick four for us as the anchor leg was too tough. We’ll tie our day to the Golden Garter in the seventh where we hope to get a price better than 2-1.
- R7 $30 Win Bet on #5 Golden Garter (betting at or over 2-1)
- Pick 3 with R7: $20
- $5 base bet = 5 w 7 w 5 (total bet $5)
- $1 base bet = 8 w 7 w 5 (total bet $1)
- $3 base bet = 5 w 1,6 w 5 (total bet $6)
- $3 base bet = 5 w 7 w 8 (total bet $3)
- $0.4 base bet = 8 w 1,6 w 5 (total bet $0.80)
- $0.2 base bet = 8 w 7 w 8 (total bet $0.20)
- $2 base bet = 5 w 1,6 w 8 (total bet $4)
Meet Stats as of 6/13
- Meet ROI: -$6.25
- Wagered $121
- Won: $114.75
*see ticketmaker.drf.com for more ticket making information