Woodbine 8/21/2022 – by Drew Coatney

And we’re back… for a great day of racing. Starting middle of the card where our action will begin.

Race 8: King Edwards 8f (T, outer)

Race where an exacta bet might be the move with our top two choices.

  • Best Value: #7 March to the Arch (8-1) With so much speed signed on, I like this runner’s style to stalk the pack and make a late move. Last out had a horrendous trip at the short distance. Today should come back swinging and Husbands stays aboard. Fair value feels like 4-1 and we predict to see all of that.
  • Most Logical: #2 Filo Di Arianna (2-1) Loose leader who has best overall figures. Fairly simple approach.
  • Against: #3 Shirl’s Speight (5/2) Will take a lot of money as the hometown hero beating up on horses during the Keeneland Spring meet. Ever since, this runner can’t find form and connections keep switching things up on this horse… going longer, trying dirt, one turn. That type of variability without success makes me wonder if this horse still mentally knows what his job is at this point or if has been trained specifically for the flat mile for long enough.

Race 9: Canadian Stakes $200k (T, outer)

  • Best Value: #6 Flirting Bridge (4-1) Plenty of angles to get excited about with this runner. Ran with Lasix on debut in North America and won impressively. Comes back to Parx, last out, off Lasix and didn’t take the step forward you would expect second off the layoff of 6+ months. In addition to the medication change at Parx, that trip was horrendous, chasing slow pace leader and widest around. Overconfidently handled, in my opinion. The runner that defeated this horse was Princess Grace, who backed up that form by almost getting the better of Dalika in the Beverly D a few weekends ago. Prat needs to get this horse involved early as the pace looks slow, but the English form shows that won’t be a problem for this runner. Fair value is 3-1.
  • Most Logical: #2 Fev Rover (5/2) Last out off the 6+ month layoff had a bad break and then found himself on the lead. I don’t think that’s where Husbands envisioned this runner at the break. Clearer trip today and a pace to chase this runner will be hard to beat.
  • Longshot: #1 Munny for Ro (8-1) Bad trip last out having to steady around the turn, creating an against the pace dynamic for this runner. Likely to be overlooked in the betting and a nice value, especially for underneath use.

Race 10: Queens Plate $1M 9f (AW)

Great edition of the Plate with many chances.

  • Best Value: #4 The Minkster (10-1) Name even sounds like a wise-guy type of horse. Was progressing nicely until the last race that was a bit of a dud and rank. With the outside speeds should be able to hold the rail and run on well.
  • Defensive Use: #8 Moira (5/2) Logical, continue to improve, and should get the similar pace setup that she got last out.
  • Longshot Play: #9 Hunt Master (30-1) This horse will be left off everyone’s tickets and will be a monster price. Third off layoff cycle and looks to be getting good at the right time. Workout tab looks strong and could spring a massive upset to hit the board or maybe win this event. Emma-Jayne gets board for this one and I find that VERY interesting, considering she’s a well-respected rider that finds good mounts. Maybe they know something we don’t?

Race 11: MOC $40k 6f (T, outer)

No opinion here but would put #4 So Breanna (4-1) as the top choice, I like the recent turf work.

Race 12: OC $50k 8f (inner turf)

With so many speed horses in here, I’m searching for presser/stalker types who will come from 3+ lengths off of the winner to slingshot around those tight turns. Typically, the inner turf plays kind to speed but it’s hard to embrace that tactic with the amount speed signed on here.

  • Best Value/Most Logical: #8 Henley’s Joy (5-1) Hard knocking 6 year old has yet to win a race in two years, and that will play very nicely for the price of this horse. The last race out was practically a listed stakes race and two back got caught in a slow pace off a layoff & trainer change. Third start off the bench and Kimura jumps aboard. Must use horse for me and fair value feels 7/2.
  • Longshot Play: #9 Mr. Diffley (20-1) Overall figures fit with this bunch and will storming home late. Last out they tried no blinkers and put them right back on. Class level in this race fits this horse well. With a little race luck could win the thing, but a must use underneath horse.

Race 13: MC $15k 6.5f (T)

Not many runners in here like to pass, so we’re looking to take a shot on top.

  • Best Value: #4 Skipover (8-1) Love this runner in this wide-open spot. Has the inside speed and showed a great improvement off that lackluster debut. Hernandez gets aboard and ran a very respectable third at 106-1 odds! This one could easily get overlooked in the betting with those two terrible Beyer figures, but we’re excusing the debut for the bad start and the last figure will be the stepping stone.
  • Most Logical: #10 Creemore (3-1) Drops down into class coming out of a not so good Saratoga effort. Can clearly run better and Emme-Jayne gets back aboard. Stalks from the outside and makes one sweeping move. Fair value feels like 5/2.
  • Next Best: #5 Jimmy Is a Breeze (4-1) Third start of the year for a three year old that showed some ability on the turf course. Gets back to that course after 4 attempts on the all-weather going the 7 panels. Today only going 6.5f and looks to have a stalking, ground saving trip.

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