Race 9: Canadian G2 9f (T)
Great to see Cambier Parc make her debut here, but a good spot to try and take a stand against her. Knowing Chad Brown trains his runners to make one long sustained closing kick, I’m not looking to beat Cambier Parc with that same running style.
- Best Value: #9 Art of Almost (15-1) Last out got stuck behind a snail’s pace, trailing the leader (#1 Theodora B.) by 4+ lengths and was dead last and the first call. In the late stages of that race, she was the only one gaining ground late. Today I hope gets spotted more aggressively in the race, as she did back on May 24 at Churchill. Gets the advantage of going a furlong less today and should prove to have more left in the tank coming for home. The Beyer figures are competitive with this bunch. Value line stands around 8-1.
- Most Logical: Cambier Parc (6/5) Almost a year off from the races, but Chad Brown knows how to get a runner ready. Over past five years, Chad is 31% with turf stakes runners at 180+ days off.
Race 10: Queen’s Plate $1,000k 10f (AW)
Can the logical two horses win? Absolutely! However, they’ll both have to overcome trips that make their ML’s of 2-1 and 5/2 too difficult to back.
- Best Value: #13 Mighty Heart (20-1) Had the worse of the two trips last out versus #14 Tecumseh’s War (12-1) by going widest and tending to the hot pace. This horse looks to be the best speed on paper. A slight step forward with the third start off the layoff and this home bred is in the mix. Expect this one to travel in the front pack early.
- Exotic Use: #3 Belichick (30-1) Got caught in a pace duel going wide last out for his first route race, setting up the perfect closing move for #8 Olliemyboy to win the race. Was drawn that day widest of all and has a much cozier pocket trip today. With a bit more stamina built into the foundation of this horse through the last race and the strong workouts, Josie Carroll’s $300k colt should not go overlooked.
- Too short to back: #10 Curlin’s Voyage (5/2) Fastest figures on paper but has been on the receiving end of pace setups and ground saving trips. Today is forced to draw wide. No other start has the horse drawn past the five post.
- Too short to back: #12 Clayton (2-1) Another horse who hasn’t faced much adversity drawing no wider than the four post in all four starts. Today gets the widest of all, way out in the 12 post. Has the tactical speed but don’t trust at the 2-1 price.
Race 11: Alw 6.5f (T)
The tricky 6.5f distance for this massive bunch.
- SCRATCH Most Logical: #4 Jeanie B (3-1) Last race was very impressive, punching through a hole late and carrying on well. The gallop out was massive, too. Over the past two starts in America, nothing in the field is very close to this one in figures. I expect the pace to heat up in front and Kimura to take to the rail for a ground saving stalking trip. With just a smidge of racing luck, gets clear and hits top gear at the 1/8 pole.
- Next Best: #14 Raison d’Etre (10-1) The $825k OBS purchase for Stone Street Stables should not be overlooked in horizontal plays. Ships in from the Kentucky region to take on this field. Made a strong move in the last race to take a commanding victory. Expect the same tactics today, take back, save ground, and make one run late. Based on the recent work tab, this one is ready for a massive step forward.
- Best Value: #5 Grey Seal (20-1) Should be the best speeds of the five drawn to the inside. Husbands could get the rail and go wire-to-wire as the rest of the bunch run into troubled trips. Figures fit but we don’t expect much upside for the fifth start in this five year old’s campaign.
Race 12: Ruling Angel Stakes ($100k) 6.5f (AW)
Logical morning line favorite looks tough to beat.
- Most Logical: #1 Boardroom (2-1) Ran them off their feet in the last two and today projects the same. The inside draw should allow for a good trip without too much ground lose. The Josie Carroll barn over the past month is winning at 33% clip (7 winners out of 21 runners). Everyone needs to jump up several points to catch this one.
- SCRATCH Best Value: #3 Cambria (8-1) Has an interesting look after beating Chimney Rock at Kentucky Downs last Fall. My hope is this horse needs the 6.5f and those previous two turf sprints were too sharp.
Race 13: Clm $25k 8.5f (AW)
What a fun race to have the force-out on the high five payout. The key will be can the speeds hold on, and we think not.
- Best Value: #8 Northern Thunder (20-1) This horse is a natural stalker but hasn’t been able to do so because of the tremendous competition faced over the last handful of races. Those more difficult tests, like the Queen’s Plate Trial (against Clayton, the ML favorite for the Queen’s Plate today), set a faster pace up front giving the optics this horse is a dead closer instead of a stalker. Today should get a bit easier pace to chase and kick past the more reasonable class level of horses. The August 30th work has us hopeful.
- Logical Contender: #13 Tallestofthetall (8-1) Faced off against some very salty marathon types on the turf last out. Today gets the class relief and should stay out of the trouble. The wide trip does have us slightly concerned, so will be our second choice today.
- Next Best: #2 Perfect Revenge (15-1) Another that has been way out-matched in previous starts. Get’s a third start today and should be another stalking the speeds. Barn has put out 3 winners in past 16 starts over last two months with a positive $2.25 ROI.
- Consideration: #10 Executive Retreat (10-1) Crossing a line through the last race, this four year old is progressing nicely. The figures fit right in with this field around low 70’s Beyers. If can take a small step forward, should be in the mix at the end. Will need to use the speed we saw back in 2019 and might have a chance to pull of this win.
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