Race 7: Summer Stakes G1 8f (T, outer one turn)
No horses coming out of that Soar Free stakes have much finish
- Most Logical: #3 Appraise (5-1) Didn’t love the sprint distance last out and should be a good galloper type that will fit the distance. Without any speed in here, will be in range and turn into a foot race near the end.
- Long shot: #7 Stayhonor Goodside (6-1) Great debut on the turf last out to make two moves (one on BS and one down the lane). Couldn’t quite get the lead situation figured out and cost him the race. With an easier forward placed race and a better lead change, can easily see this one stepping forward. Casse thinks enough of the runner to enter here.
- Honorable mention: #6 Philip My Dear (2-1) Last race was impressive to have a check in the BS (not noted in the charts) that cost 3-4 lengths, then made a good move down the lane to weave through traffic. Debut effort also impressive to run through those slow early fractions. Very possible these wins are product of running against horses without finish.
- Fading: #1 Mysterious Night (6/5) made the trip over with Modern Games for Appleby. I think this runner will just be too far back and leave too much to do. Last time going around a bend this horse was beaten 3rd and not sure if he really wants the turn. That will be critical with this slow pace as this runner will need to establish position from back.
Race 8: Seaway Stakes G3 7f (AW) girls 3+ (BEST BET) – love the exacta here with these two top runners
- Top Choice: #5 Souper Sensational (3-1) Should crush this field. The 2 year old back form yielded very competitive numbers and should be a good foundation to show this runner should step forward on figures on the All Weather. Today gets a great pace to run into, stalking/pressing the field, and make the move. 3rd off layoff.
- Next Best: #9 Lady Speightspeare (2-1) The other logical runner in here who will be pressing the pace. 2 for 2 over the surface and has faced some very good horses in between. Not on top because hasn’t shown an ability to overcome adversity like slow paces, so project a second place finish
Race 9: Woodbine Mile 8f (T, outer)
I think you have to make three decisions here for this race to sort through these logical contenders.
First, will the pace be hot (pace makes the race) or similar to what Town Cruise did last year (loose on the lead). My idea is this pace will be perfect for one of the stalking logicals as the pace will be too hot up front for the likes of Town Cruise and Get Smoking to hang on, carving a pathway for those pressers (Finest Sound and Modern Games to be doing most of this pressing).
The next decision, how will Modern Games be placed in this race. I believe he is going to be placed aggressively to find rail position behind these speeds. This will result in him getting softened up too early.
Last and final decision, is Modern Games that good to justify what will be a very short price (writing as of Thursday morning before morning lines are posted). Considering Ivar, Wakanka, Finest Sound, Get Smokin, and Town Cruise are all within a few TFUS figure points, it’s really hard to say Modern Games is a sure bet. American punters will recall the Breeders Cup debacle where he was scratched from the race behind the gate accidentally but then was allowed to run for purse money and won. Because of that headline, bettors will be out to GET REVENGE and make their money back by sinking it into the sure thing they “knew” was going to win on BC day but was robbed of the opportunity to cash. Don’t forget this runner has lost twice as a 8/5 favorite and 2-1 favorite in two events that had 11 and 15 horses, respectively. That tells me this horse has hype and will be overbet and minimal value here.
- Top Choice/Best Value: #2 Ivar (4-1) Will be able to stalk the pressers and speeds but stay in touch as they move along the backstretch. The last out race was a prep here and should provide a great foundation to make a strong second start for the year. In the last three grade one starts, this runner has yet to get a pace setup and lost only be 4.5 lengths combined.
- Next Best: #11 March to the Arch (12-1) Last race was a toss with the slow pace and second off the bench. The true spot Casse is pointed towards is this race and his stablemate Get Smokin will ensure there’s a pace to run into. Last Woodbine Mile was unfortunate with the loose leader Town Cruise that got the best of him here. Today, I expect the tables to turn for the deepest of closers in the field today.
- Long shot: #3 Wakanka (10-1) Don’t be surprised if this runner notches a career best. Last out was impressive against the pace flow. Two back faced a tough Regal Glory that got a 3-5L advantage when the real running started. Three back had a terrible pace to run into.
- Most Logical/Too Short of Price: Modern Games (7/5) has the class of the field with an easy trip finishing second behind Baeed (world #1 horse) and the recency bias of the Breeders Cup race. Is still 3 years old so could continue to step forward. I would imagine (haven’t looked this up) that this runner is here state side for the Breeders’ Cup and this is an easy step to try and win $1M for the connections. I doubt this is the main objective of the season: Breeders Cup will be later this Fall.
Race 10: Natalama Stakes G1 8f (T, outer) – Best bet
- Top Choice: #6 Wickenheiser (3-1) Finished a good fifth in the last race. The runner got stuck wide the entire way and made a very late and aggressive move to get back up into the race. Today should get more time to sort things out going the full 8f to make a sustained bid and close up.
- Next Best: #5 Adora (6-1) Another runner coming out of the Catch a Glimpse stakes. Suffered ground loss and had some trouble closing into the slowish pace. Needs to step forward and get the longer distance.
Race 11: OC 8.5f (T, inner two turns)
No strong opinions here
- Top Choice: #6 Guileful (8-1) Last three turf tries were very good with some troubled trips. Should press the pace and might be able to put it together.
- Next Best: #7 Big Band Luzziann (3-1) Speed horse who can do better than two back where she ran way to fast early, fading hard.
- Consideration: #8 Speightstown Shirl (6-1) Second start of the year and looks like could love the inner turf. Speed and tactical. Has the best back class here
- Consideration: #10 Miss Marie (10-1) Will be flying home late if the pace gets too hot up front. Another with some decent back class.
