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Race 9: Woodbine Oaks $500k 9f (AW)
The 2024 rendition of the Woodbine Oaks has to start with Kevin Attard. He’s sending out five runners to go chase the Oaks dreams for the sizable purse of $500k. Some may have a chance, some not so much. Moving onto the pace of the race, this seems to be a balanced pace with a slight favor to closers pressers. Ideal spot here would be 2-3 lengths off in the pocket stalking on the rail.
Selections: 9, 7, 14 – in horizontals would also be using the 10 and 12
Runner by Runner Analysis
- #1 Inudation (10-1) Grinder running style who needs a little pace to run into. Last two runnings has continued to progress in late pace figures, showing me this one wants the full 9 furlongs today. Gets blinkers for the first time today. Kevin Attard, the trainer, is 3 for 16 with 6 in the money finishes going first time blinkers in stakes company. I don’t think this is our winner of the Oaks. I can’t get over the big Beyer that was earned was done with an absolute perfect rail trip. The horse really needs to step forward on figures.
- #2 Holiday in Jail (30-1) Longshot here that has zero finish. I can’t see this one even if I squint hitting the frame and the morning line reflects that. Broke the maiden at Maiden Optional Claiming ranks and ran a decent run in an n2L event last out.
- #3 Looking to Conquer (20-1) Has some speed built in but looking at TimeForm US those early fractions were coded blue (slow). Today will face more pressure and don’t think there’s much chance for this longshot going even longer today.
- #4 Kin’s Concerto (4-1) The price is way too short on this runner who is close to many others in here. Had a perfect ground saving trip last out and couldn’t close into the neutral pace. I’m fading this favorite considering there’s others coming out of that race who ran similar figures but had much tougher trips.
- #5 Hurricane Clair (12-1) Presser style of runner that doesn’t have too much finish. Last out was a heavy favorite in an Optional Claiming event and got the job done. Needs to improve on figures and figure out how to finish as the competition in here is going to be much tougher today. Don’t love this runner’s chances.
- #6 Vucchella (20-1) Another Kevin Attard runner that has me scratching my head. Still a maiden and has speed. Feels to be the rabbit in this race. If you’re a figure player, this one is at the bottom of the list. The speed could help but doubt will see out the full 9f with pace pressure.
- #7 Bravo Kate (20-1) Longshot with a real chance in here. Last out ran a nice number at 7f. Wide throughout in that event and was finishing with good interest. The read on that race is the stretch out will help keep this one in contention early and finish up nicely down the lane. Two back had an absolute mess of a ride down the lane (maybe some greenness) that looked to be resolved in the 7f event that was just mentioned. Big workout three back. This one could be a major upset contender.
- #8 My Girl Della (12-1) Another longshot I don’t mind. Has come out firing in 2024 with two runs that were competitive. Last out was widest of all and ran on well enough. Husbands getting board here is notable. Winning at a 35% clip with the jockey/trainer combo for 2023 – 2024. If can work out a trip, this is another live longshot.
- #9 Ba Dee Yah (8-1) Shipper in here for Tom Amos. Has some pretty big figures on the dirt. The race two back we’ll cross a line through as that was against some of the best in the country in Thorpedo Anna. I love that this runner has had experience on the turf and earned decent figures as a two year old. This one is the pick.
- #10 Caitlinhergrtness (3-1) Another import in here who already has a run at Woodbine. The recent change to Kevin Attard woke this horse up. The big question remains will this horse like the full 9f. The price is a bit too short to put on top, but makes sense.
- #11 War Painter (6-1) Has been the heavy favorite in the two races in 2024. Both of which barely won. The figures earned were big, but I don’t like the lack of finish in the TimeForm US figures. This is going to be a tough race finishing down the lane for this one. Fading this horse here.
- #12 A Little Frisky (10-1) Last out was a way too patient ride and was caught sleeping at the switch as the heavy favorite. Today comes back here and gets a new jockey. Love this horse to hit underneath. Has earned some good figures and finish on nicely.
- #13 Lunch with Bernie (12-1) Exposed form for this Casse runner. Will be pressing the pace but don’t see being very competitive here especially from this wide post.
- #14 Shameless (30-1) If you’re a superfecta player, this one should be used in the forth and third spots. Is a deep closer getting Lasix for the first time. Was checked going into the far turn in the last event and left too much to do. Two back was running at the 7f distance that’s too short for the horse. Very interesting runner.
