Race 4: #4 Fanore (7/2)
It appears #4 Fanore (7/2) could get loose in this spot and he’ll be the play if you can get 7/2. The #6 Battle Strike is probably the only other rival who has shown they want to be forward at all, and while the only victory came on the lead, he’s always sat just off the pace in the five races since then. Fanore should try to take advantage of the pace scenario and take the field as far as he can. He’s yet to miss the exacta in three races over this turf course, and he was well clear of the third place spot in both near misses. He was finally able to break through last time at this same trip and is realistically spotted for his first try against winners. Note, the maiden score came on “good” grass and they’ve had a decent amount of rain throughout the week.
Race 7: #9 Silent Miracle (30-1)
I’ll try to beat #1 Monet Never (7/2), who is likely to take plenty of money after winning a maiden race at Saratoga this summer. That victory is a pretty big outlier on his past performances, and it’s not like that race would make him a standout either. #8 Hunt Master (5/2) is in good form right now, but he’s another that I’m willing to take on mostly because he’ll be a short price in a wide open field, but I also found it puzzling that Kimura jumps ship.
I’m taking a huge swing with #9 Silent Miracle (30-1). His recent form is pretty abysmal, but I think there’s a legitimate case to be made after taking a closer look. The three year old has more upside than most of his older rivals, and I can’t help but wonder if one turn is what he’s wanted to do all along. Three back he got away with murder on the front end while going long, and I can’t fault the connections for continuing to try those races. It’s since come clear that he needs to cut back to one turn and perhaps change his style too. He had success sprinting early on, and both of those victories came when he tracked the pace including a win in May that isn’t far off from what it’ll take to be competitive here. The one grass performance wasn’t terrible as he dueled through quick fractions going two turns, and battled until the eighth pole before throwing in the towel. With this outside draw, he should sit a nice trip from just off the pace and we’ll find out if he’s good enough in the stretch.
Race 8: #1 Breathing Fire (8-1)
There is plenty of questionable turf form in this field, and this is another race where I want to take on the favorites. #6 Miss Speedy is indeed very fast and is likely to go off favored based on her recent sprint form as those races make her a standout on figures. The distance is a question mark though and the one turf race was just blah. I also have a hard time envisioning her getting it her own way on the front, so I’m not a fan at a short price. Similar case for #11 Strega who is an even bigger question mark on the grass, though two turns shouldn’t be an issue. She has speed though and this is also a brutal post to overcome at this distance.
I’m hoping this field remains intact because #1 Breathing Fire (8-1) could sit a sweet trip from just off the pace. She actually possesses the fastest turf figure in the field (Beyer) and that automatically gives her a look. Her recent form is solid as well, two back she came flying late, but ran out of real estate going five furlongs. She ran even better three weeks ago when she stalked a wicked pace and just came home evenly to finish 4th in a race that completely fell apart. Two turns is a question mark, but the even run line from her latest effort makes me think she’ll be able to handle it. Either of her last two races probably puts her in the hunt and she should save every inch of ground from this inside draw.
Race 9: #5 True Temper (3-1)
I’ve been waiting for #5 True Temper (3-1) to get back to the races and he finally does in today’s ninth race. He only ran once, but it was a solid performance after a poor start. He rushed up to track the pace behind rivals, then exploded once they hit the straightaway and won going away. The top two were clear by over ten lengths that day and that rival has come back to win a stakes race and place in a couple others. He returns off a long layoff with plenty of foundation and the easy final work indicates he’s ready to fire. It appears there will be plenty of pace to flatter his rally and he is realistically spotted at the non-winners of two level. He’ll be tough if he duplicates the debut run and any improvement should be good enough to win this race.
