The 2024 Kentucky Derby
It’s that time of year again, boys and girls! Time for the annual renewal of that most glorious springtime ritual of all, the Kentucky Derby.
The year 2024 is notable not only for the fact that a wide swath of the United States experienced a total solar eclipse but it also happens to be a leap year. And, oh yeah, there’s a certain event to be held in November which is eagerly anticipated by…well…nobody.
Certain commenters, soon to lose their coveted position on Your Faithful Correspondent ’s (YFC) distribution list, have thrown shade on the results of this annual missive. Well, the disgruntled few can take a flying leap into a…wait…wait…breathe…
Ice cream…seashells…balloons.
Ah, much better.
Damn the naysayers and full speed ahead! Let’s quit biden our time and jump into the analysis that trumps all others. The field for this year’s Kentucky Derby (in post position order);
Dornoch
Trainer Danny Gargan was knocked for taking this confirmed front runner off the pace in this year’s Florida Derby. With the inside post position this contender drew, there is no choice but to fire hard out of the gate, opening the door for another fast early pace in the Derby.
Sierra Leone
Not sure how this late running closer ended up being named after a West African country. If he can’t manage to weave his way through from the back of the field to be first under the wire, backers will be left…incontinent.
Mystik Dan
Open question as to whether we’ll see the legs this one showed in closing stoutly for the victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Or legs like Lieutenant Dan.
Catching Freedom
Freedom fried the field in the Louisiana Derby. Don’t think his energy likely to flag here. Solid contender.
Catalytic
2nd to runaway winner Fierceness in the Florida Derby. By 13 lengths. Hey, somebody had to finish second. Think this Derby more likely to be cataclysmic for him. Can’t see converting him to a contender here.
Just Steel
Only the most cold-hearted, unfeeling, callous observer would summarily dismiss “The Coach,” D. Wayne Lukas and his charge here as a sentimental choice to win the Derby in the sunset years of this sporting legend.
No chance.
Honor Marie
Shows 2 wins and a second place finish in his 3 starts over the Churchill Downs surface. With YFC’s future book ticket on this one at 36-1 I won’t be getting off him.
Just a Touch
This year’s winner…for creepiest horse name.
Likely to be right up on an expected hot early pace. May lose touch with the field when the real running starts.
T O Password
First of two Japanese entries in this year’s Derby. Likely to be setting a strong pace for his neighbor next door.
Forever Young
Bob Dylan hunch play. Won the UAE Derby last out despite a very wide trip, but did so in an effort that could have been timed with a sundial and that time, it ain’t a changin’. Don’t think twice. The winner – it ain’t him, babe.
Track Phantom
Pace factor. Doesn’t have a ghost of a chance.
West Saratoga
Hard not to root for a horse that cost just $11,000 and trained by cancer survivor Larry Demeritte. Don’t like his chances but would not mind at all if this guy were to somehow upset this field.
Endlessly
If trainer Mike McCarthy had his way this guy would continue to ply his trade on the turf. But owner clearly caught a bad case of Derby fever, for which the only vaccine is a crushing defeat.
Domestic Product
YFC may be accused of inflating this guy’s chances but to dismiss anything from the barn of top trainer Chad Brown and ridden by top jockey Irad Ortiz is gross.
Grand Mo The First
Despite being one of the longer odd contenders, this guy is no stooge. Would light up the board in a big way with a victory.
Fierceness
Likely favorite is a tiger one race, a pussycat the next. Roared down the stretch in the Florida Derby to win by 13 and is working well since that effort. Has had a habit at times of making his own trouble. If he doesn’t break cleanly out of the gate YFC can see having conversations with his backers that go like this;
Backer: “I unloaded my bankroll on Fierceness.”
Me: “Ow.”
Stronghold
Santa Anita Derby winner trained by Phil D’Amato. You say D’Amato. I say tomato, as in can. Likely to get pasted.
Resilience
Respect anything from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. That being said, horses that finished behind this guy in the Wood Memorial, held at luxurious Aqueduct Racetrack in the pastoral confines of South Ozone Park, New York were, respectively, 107-1, 38-1 and 80-1, fairly calling into question the quality of that field.
Society Man
Was the 107-1 second place finisher in the Wood Memorial. Has somehow attracted the services of top international jockey Frankie Dettori, famed for his flying dismounts in the winner’s circle. Frankie better pack a parachute. If this guy wins, he’ll be coming out of the clouds.
Epic Ride
Will need one to win this Derby.
Alternate Entry
Will draw into the race if any contender scratches out of the race. If you wish to bet Mugatu in this year’s Derby, avoid the lines and just send YFC your money.
Selections
Top two contenders, Fierceness and Sierra Leone, with contrasting running styles are logical, legitimate choices to win this year’s edition of the Run for the Roses.
Still, going to hold on to my 36-1 futures ticket with Honor Marie and hope for the best. Will not be afraid to use Catching Freedom on my tickets also.
Good luck and hold all tickets!
