Today marks the lone stop in New Mexico on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Eight three year olds are entered in this 1 1/16 mile contest. Mine That Bird finished 4th in this race on the way to his improbable Derby score in 2019. Six years later, Firing Line shipped to New Mexico where he was an impressive winner here prior to finishing second in the Derby to American Pharoah. Recent winners of this race have had little impact on the outcome of the Triple Crown races. There’s a few nice horses here that could use this race to start building their case to be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Sunland Park, Race 9: The $500K Sunland Park Derby (Post Time: 4:17 PM MST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 – Express Kid – (3-1 ML, 150-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This colt has one of the cooler stories on the Derby Trail this year. He’s a California bred who was purchased at auction for a mere $2,000 back in 2024. He debuted in Minnesota at Canterbury where he was overlooked in the wagering, but was able to win in a 4 ½ furlong maiden allowance. He finished second in a small stakes race at Prairie Meadows and then struggled badly in the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington. He got back on track when he won an allowance race on the turf and that effort was deemed good enough for his connections to take a swing in the premier race at the Remington Meet for two year olds, the Remington Springboard Mile. He was dismissed at 34-1, but he was sent for speed from post 11 where he secured the early lead. He had a clear lead every step of the way that evening, demolishing that field by over six lengths. His original owners turned the initial $2K investment into $236K in purse money won. Last month, they put him (and his 10 Derby Points) in an auction where his new connections paid a whopping $800K for him. He’s been transferred to Justin Evans’ barn and has been working well locally for his first start for his new outfit. Early speed has historically played well on this course, so starting in the pole position can only help his cause. In addition, Juan Hernandez is in town to ride and he’ll be getting the assignment aboard him for the first time. If the Derby doesn’t work out, there’s a decent amount of money up for grabs in Cal bred stakes company, so there will be opportunities for this investment to work out. However, a win here gets him to 30 points, which puts him in a great spot to get into the Derby field with a respectable effort in his final prep race. I’m definitely interested to see if he can back up that last race, but there could be better value elsewhere on the board in this race. In terms of the Future’s market, the 150-1 price could be worth a small play. When looking at the other horses with odds like that, there’s not a likely path to being one of the 20 horses that get into the starting gate for the Derby. With a few points in the bank and being the morning line favorite here, there is definitely a path for him to qualify. After all, these owners didn’t pay $800K to pass up the Derby if it’s on the table.
2 – Sharons Beach (10-1 ML): This Omaha Beach gelding is one of two maidens that are entered in this spot today. Jonathan Thomas cross-entered him in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita on Monday, but he also has John Velazquez named to ride. It’s an interesting call as to what the connections will do since he’s scheduled to face a 4-5 Bob Baffert runner on Monday, who could be a tougher foe than his seven rivals here. He showed little in his first two starts at Colonial this summer, but he clearly did some growing as he was much sharper at Santa Anita last month when he just missed in a speedy maiden optional claiming race. This will be his first two turn test on the dirt, and he still needs to prove that he can back up that last race. There’s also the question of whether or not he can succeed without receiving race day Lasix, which he was given prior to his last try. I have mixed feelings about him, but he’s not impossible in this race.
3 – Pavlovian (8-1 ML): He’s another California bred and he’s the most experienced runner in the field, making his 9th career start. He’s been a useful homebred for Reddam Racing, earning $116K, despite winning only once. He’s hit the board in some stakes races, but he’s never really been close in those state bred contests. O’Neill and Reddam love taking shots and every now and then it works out. However, I’m not sure how high the ceiling is for this colt at this point and time. I’ll be looking elsewhere.
4 – Forty Twenty (6-1 ML): Robertino Diodoro brings this son of Candy Ride to town after a 12 length blowout win in maiden allowance company at Turf Paradise. He was a 1-10 favorite that day and he handled his business accordingly. Clearly, he didn’t beat much there, so this is a definite class test. His half brother was a distant 4th in this race last year, but he did go on to win a bunch of other smaller stakes races on lesser circuits. I think the distance won’t be the issue, but I’m not sure he’s good enough to win at this level so quickly.
5 – Way Beyond (4-1 ML): Steve Asmussen sends out the runner in the Riley Allison Derby on this course last month. He was over 11 lengths behind Express Kid in the Remington Springboard Mile when they last met. He’s another runner that has several starts under his belt but he hasn’t taken too many steps forward to suggest that he could contend at this level.
6 – Bricklin (7-2 ML): This pricy Nyquist colt opted out of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn last week in favor of this trip out of town. He struggled in his debut at Ellis, but he was able to win for the first time when shipping to Horseshoe Indy in his second start. That effort was good enough for his connections to put him in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill in October. He was well-beaten that afternoon, never really getting involved that day. He shipped to Oaklawn where he looked quite comfortable when taking a decent allowance field all the way in a one mile race at the beginning of the year. He;s another runner that had a big figure jump, so whether or not Lasix played a part of that, we’ll have to see. Cristian Torres is the leading rider at Oaklawn right now and he’s missing a day here to ride this colt for Rodolphe Brisset. He’s certainly a contender.
7 – Daneyko (9-2 ML): This son of Vekoma shipped here from Turf Paradise last month where he went from last to first to win the Riley Allison Derby, nailing Way Beyond on the wire. The dam sire is Gio Ponti, who was a horse that ran big races on any surface. I don’t think the longer distances are going to bother this colt who continues to get better for Edward Kereluk. There are several horses that want the lead in this race and if speed is looking good early in the card, they could be blazing up front, setting things up for his late charge. He’s going to need to take a step forward, again, but he likes the track and there is potential for him to get the right set up.
8 – Buntus Foclora (12-1 ML): The other maiden in the field is an unlikely shipper coming in from New York for Amelia Green. He’s 0-5 in open maiden allowance company on the NYRA Circuit. He’s faced horses that have gone on to run in stakes races, but he’s never been close to winning those races. I think this is still a tough spot, and this will be the first time he’ll be asked to go two turns. The outside post is not ideal, and I think there are some better horses in this spot. I’ll pass on this shipper.
The verdict: 6-1-7
Much like the Risen Star yesterday at the Fair Grounds, I think this race comes down to the two short prices. I’ll give the slight nod to Bricklin (#6) because of his versatility. He drew the rail in his allowance race at Oaklawn and there’s no doubt that there is a laundry list of horses that put up big figures when they’re able to run with an uncontested lead. However, he did show that he can sit off a strong pace and come from off the pace to win races when he broke his maiden in the fall. He was bred to be a good horse and I like the idea of going to this race before getting thrown in with wolves in the Oaklawn preps.
Express Kid (#1) pulled off a strong win in the Remington Springboard Mile and he’s another runner that falls into the category of a horse that ran a big race on an uncontested lead. He was going at a good clip for that Remington Part track though and his final speed figure definitely indicates that he has some talent. His new owners are highly invested in him and his new trainer, Justin Evans, is a high percentage trainer that knows how to win races. He’s the one to catch here.
If they’re cooking on the lead, I do expect that Danekyo (#7) will be able to take another step forward. He is a winner on this course, doing so when going from last to first. The horse he beat was closer to the pace that day, so he was going pretty fast to make up that ground. He’s bred to handle longer distances, so I don’t question his stamina. He might not be there to win at this level just yet, but I do think he’s trending in the right direction.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
