By: Michael Domabyl
As a lightly-raced colt with improving speed figures, Grande is likely to generate some buzz heading into the Run for the Roses. Add that to the fact that he’s got some high-profile human connections in his corner and you’ve got all the makings of the Derby week steam horse. With 50 points, Grande currently ranks 17th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with all those points earned by his respectable second place finish in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5th.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Grande is lucky that Justify broke the “Curse of Apollo” a few years back because this colt didn’t make his debut until January 11th of this year. Like that aforementioned Derby winner, he was able to rattle off victories in both his maiden and allowance conditions in consecutive months with the latter of which coming over a 9f trip. He then stepped up to take on stakes company and turned in an underrated 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial on the first Saturday in April.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Curlin
- Dam (Damsire): Journey Home (by War Front)
- Owner: Repole Stable
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: John Velazquez
At most there’s only a handful of sires that would be chosen ahead of Curlin as a potential Derby-winning influence as his progeny are primarily known for dirt routing prowess. His dam did her best running on the grass including notching a graded stakes victory on the lawn at Del Mar as a juvenile. Her top progeny to date has been Ticker Tape Home who won a G3 on the synthetic at Woodbine.
This colt also has a Hall of Fame trainer and jockey in his corner both who have Kentucky Derby winning credentials. John Velazquez has officially piloted three Kentucky Derby winners with the most recent being Authentic in 2020, but worth noting he also crossed the wire first aboard Medina Spirit in 2021. Todd Pletcher has been a mainstay on the Derby scene over the past 20+ years holding the record for number of Kentucky Derby starters at 65, but only has two wins from that group with the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017 who was also ridden by John Velazquez.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (April 5th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 10
- Final Time: 1:48.16
- Beyer Speed Figure: 97
Grande was sent off as the 4-1 third choice in the Wood Memorial behind favored Captain Cook and eventual winner Rodriguez. Grande broke fine, but was unable to move over and gain decent position heading into the clubhouse turn. While he was only 1.5L behind pace-setting Rodriguez heading into the bend, he was forced to take back while racing wide and entered the backstretch nearly 7 lengths off the lead. He was able to steadily make up ground as Rodriguez backed down the pace and got back to within a length of the leader on the turn. However, this rally was forced to be 3-4 wide throughout the turn and his rally flattened out as Rodriguez pulled away late.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: As a son of Curlin with a win at 9f already under his belt, stamina shouldn’t come into question as he stretches out to this 10f distance. It could be argued he’s already run that far based on how wide he was forced to go around both turns in the Wood Memorial. He also possesses a ton of upside as the Derby will be his 4th career start and he’s improved his figure in each of his three previous.
Concerns: That upside comes at the expense of a lack of experience and lack of a stakes win. While there appears to be more room in the tank, he has yet to crack the triple-digit mark on the Beyer scale. He’ll need a well-timed ride from John Velazquez as he’s likely to be midpack early on in the race which can spell traffic trouble if a seam doesn’t open up.
Expert Opinions and Odds
On David Aragona’s Derby Watch morning line, he lists Grande as the co-7th choice at 15-1. In some offshore markets, you can find him as high as 33-1. With his bubbling potential to be the Derby-week buzz horse, I’d imagine he’ll be much closer to the 15-1. However, in a race where outside of Journalism there’s a logjam of other contenders, he feels like one that could be the right price and still has upside.
Conclusion
Grande’s journey in the Wood Memorial was less than ideal and he still was able to run a Beyer in the high-90’s. He’s got the stamina, human connections, and off-the-pace running style that should suit in a Kentucky Derby projected to be run at a fast early clip. He’s scheduled to have his final workout at Keeneland and while I’d have preferred to see him get a spin over the Churchill surface before Derby Day, I’m not one to question the tactics of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s a very intriguing option with which to take on the favorite.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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