By Mike Pribozie
Two year old Champion Citizen Bull comes into the 2025 Kentucky Derby off a disappointing effort in his final prep race the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. This striking son of Into Mischief by a Distorted Humor mare had only lost one race prior to this effort on April 5th, which was a 3rd place finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Citizen Bull finished 11th on the KY Derby Points list with a total of 71.25 points, easily landing him in the gate for the run for the roses. His price will probably be quite high following the prior effort, especially given his notable connections. He lands in the gate for this Derby looking to redeem himself and his trainer who hasn’t been able to participate in the Derby for the past three years.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Citizen Bull started his career in fine fashion winning a solid MSW at Del Mar on August 17, 2024 beating a next out winner in Smash It earning a BSF of 84. This effort landed him a start in the G1 Del Mar Futurity where he would ultimately lose to another Bob Baffert runner in Gaming, who got a perfect trip that day while Citizen Bull was off the pace and wide under new pilot Mike Smith. Bull was favored in that race but could be no better than 3rd beaten almost 6 lengths. Undeterred by that finish Baffert entered him in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at 8.5 Furlongs where he jumped to the lead and won easily. He grabbed an 88 Beyer for this effort. This led to a start in the loaded BC Juvenile where he didn’t get much respect despite his G1 win. He was nearly 16-1 when he wired the field, securing the 2 year old Championship in the process. He was fast on the speed scale with a 96 figure, not nearly as fast as Fierceness the year prior but fast enough to be the man in 2024.
Citizen Bull returned at three with a confident win over a Baffert laden field in the G3 Robert B Lewis on February 1st. He was able to dictate a measured pace again and beat subsequent Stake winner Rodriguez in the process and the highly regarded Madaket Road. His BSF was slightly higher than his 2 year old top with a 98. This led to the Final Prep in the G1 SA Derby where he was pushed early going 9 Furlongs and yielded late to be a well beaten 4th to be Derby Favorite Journalism. The connections continued on the Derby path with a possible equipment change taking the blinkers off for the Derby. He has works of 47 ⅗ for 4F on April 13 just 8 days following the SA Derby defeat and a bullet move April 18th going 6F in 1:11 ⅘.
Horseplayers and Handicappers alike will say he was given controlled paces in his prior starts and was dressed up prior to being exposed in the Santa Anita Derby. This KY Derby appears full of pace so a change in tactics will be in order for him to navigate the 10F distance.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Into Mischief
- Dam & Damsire: No Joke (by Distorted Humor)
- Owner: SF Racing, LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, LLC, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Bashor, Determined Stables, Masterson, Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Martin Garcia
Citizen Bull was bred by Robert E. and Lawna Low. He sold for $675,000 at the Keeneland Sept. yearling sale in 2023. Into Mischief is considered the top Sire in the sport right now and sired back to back Derby winners in Authentic and Mandaloun in 2020 and 2021. The number of black-type winners sired by Into Mischief out of Distorted Humor daughters surpasses those produced by the dams of any other broodmare sires. Each of his 11 stakes winners is out of a different dam and include Grade 1 winners Life Is Good, a multiple winner at 1 1/8 miles, and Practical Joke, who was successful up to 1 1/16 miles. The mare is a half-sister to a pair of stakes winners: multiple Grade 1 winner Moonshine Memories (Malibu Moon), and Indian Evening (Indian Charlie) winner of the Swinford Stakes.
Citizen Bull’s third dam, Evil Elaine (Medieval Man), was a listed winner and bore five stakes earners, including 1997 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero Favorite Trick (Phone Trick), a rare 2-year-old who earned Horse of the Year honors. She’s also the granddam of multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Tiz the Law (Constitution) and Grade 3 winner and sire Fury Kapcori (Tiznow). Citizen Bull’s pedigree is laden with class but also precociousness which could explain why he has not stepped forward at three as of yet.
His trainer Bob Baffert needs no introduction with his six Derby wins and his return to Churchill Downs for this year’s Derby will be front and center for the national media and bettors alike. His jockey Martin Garcia got along very well with him at two, guiding him to three wins in four starts including the Breeders Cup victory. He has limited mounts so far in 2025 with just 44 and two victories. (One with CB in the Lewis). He has won over 1800 races in his career and multiple Grade 1 Races. He guided Bayern to a Classic win in 2014 for Baffert. He has ridden in the Derby four times with his best finish as 3rd in 2015 on the Baffert trained Dortmund. These connections are top notch and can only help the horse if he is good enough on the day.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (April 5th)
- Finish Position: 4th out of 5
- Final Time: 1:49.56
- Beyer Speed Figure: [BSF] – 87
Citizen Bull was the second choice in the March 5th Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at 2.10/1. He pushed forward early but the rabbit Westwood engaged him right away and took the lead in a quick 22.25 quarter. Garcia moved off the rail to engage early and he dueled down the backstretch. Early moves from the back of the pack notably Baeza caused him to move early to go for home and he was all used up by the time Journalism came calling for the lead. He tired late to eventually be passed for third by Westwood. It was not a performance that one would like to see heading into a longer race with a difficult pace scenario. Here are his incremental fractions for this race. 22.42, 24.72, 24:28, 25.84 then 13.96 to finish. This was his toughest test to date as he didn’t get the trip or pace that he wanted and he tired late.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Citizen Bull’s number one strength is his class. He went straight from a maiden to G1 company and remain there throughout his two year old championship season. He was judiciously prepped leading up to this Derby, but his top level connections haven’t given up on him after one bad start. Another strength is his connections. He is surrounded by the top of the sport with his ownership, trainer and jockey. They know how to win big races and wouldn’t have him committed to this Derby if they didn’t believe in him. Price will be another attribute on Derby day. After a poor last prep his price is going to skyrocket in this race. He was 2/1 vs the Derby favorite in the SA Derby and now could push 30/1 or higher on the board.
Concerns: There is a concern that Citizen Bull only thrives when he is able to dictate a race. It can be argued that he has had easy trips and paces in the races that he has won. This Derby does look to have a fast pace with many taking shots early and often. He will likely need to come from off the pace if he wants to contend. The one time he did try that was in the Del Mar Futurity and he ran his worst race at two. There is a distance concern that he may not be at his best at the 10F distance. The 9F Santa Anita Derby was his worst race to date and he was faltering badly in the stretch. His pedigree is precocious and excels at races around a mile. Perhaps shorter races with smaller fields will suit him better.
Expert Opinions and Odds
This is difficult as I have always been high on Citizen Bull. I was a fan of his when he won the two Grade 1s at two and had him listed on my sheet in the Juvenile. I was happy to see him come back a winner in the Robert B Lewis even though he got his trip again. He looked bigger and stronger and ready to step forward at three. Then the Santa Anita Derby happened. Yes,
he had a tough trip but instead of fighting down the stretch with Baeza and Journalism he came to a stop. He was beaten late by the maiden rabbit Westwood. Can he rebound?? Connections are saying all the right things. His works are sharp heading into the race and his price will be high after the last time we saw him on the track. I think he could be higher than 30/1 in this race as everyone will have soured on him. He is around 16/1 in Vegas right now but I’m sure they have taken a fair number of bets lower than that over this Derby season. He was 8/1 in KDFW #6 and 9/1 in pool 5. Upsets have ruled the Derby in recent years and his resume is far greater than some of those unlikely winners. If he is in the gate for Baffert here I think I would need a bit of sanity insurance on him…..plus it’s always good to stick by your friends when they are struggling.
Conclusion
Citizen Bull would be a far lower price in here if he had finished 2nd to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby like he was projected to on the board. Instead he ran a stinker. What happened? Was he a fraud all along? I am not so sure because he dominated a loaded BC Juvy that had all the top horses show up in the fall. Has he not progressed at three? Very possible but one bad race isn’t the end all when making that assessment. He is classy and in the right hands. I think if they show up he will make an impression on the race somehow. Can he rate and finish? Can he find some of his class that he had at two? Can Baffert win again? Lots of questions and you’ll get between 20 and 30/1 to find out. Who’s IN?
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…
In the Money Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders
