By Michael Domabyl
A maiden in the Kentucky Derby? Publisher is just that and will try to become the first horse since Brokers Tip in 1933 to capture the Run For The Roses as their first career victory. While Publisher hasn’t yet found the winners’ circle, he comes into this year’s Kentucky Derby with respectable credentials nonetheless. However, it will be a difficult task to reverse the form of the other maidens who have attempted this feat in recent memory. Only three maidens have contested the Derby since the turn of the century with none finishing better than 13th. With 60 points Publisher currently ranks 14th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with the majority of those points earned by his respectable second place finish in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 5th.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Publisher began his career in a nondescript manner with three consecutive third-place finishes in maiden special weights with Beyer Speed Figures in the 60’s each time. It was in his fourth career start where he took a major step forward chasing home fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful American Promise in an Oaklawn maiden race. That performance coupled with the 92 Beyer it received was enough for connections to aim higher and target Kentucky Derby points races. In his stakes debut, Publisher lost all chance at an in-the-money finish in the Southwest when a tiring American Promise impeded his run up the rail in mid-stretch. While he got a fast pace to set up his closing kick in the Rebel stakes next out it is worth noting that speed was carrying very well over the Oaklawn strip that day and he did well to rally for fourth. He once again got a lightning pace to set him up in the Arkansas Derby, but found one closer better than him as he checked in second behind Sandman.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: American Pharoah
- Dam (Damsire): Indian Pride (by Proud Citizen)
- Owner: Gus King and the Estate of Brereton C. Jones
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Despite being one of the most talented racehorses over the past decade or so, American Pharoah hasn’t exactly lived up to that reputation in the breeding shed thus far with many of his top progeny actually turning out to be best on grass. Publisher’s dam Indian Pride was a lightly raced filly who won three of four starts with her top accomplishment capturing the 2020 Shine Again going 7f at Saratoga. Publisher is her first foal to race.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a jockey/trainer pair more accomplished than the team behind Publisher, but Irad Ortiz Jr and Steve Asmussen have yet to taste a Derby victory. Irad has yet to have too many super live mounts with his best Derby finish from eight mounts a 4th place in 2019 aboard Improbable. Steve Asmussen is still looking for his first Derby winner but has finished second three times in the race from 26 starters.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (March 29th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 9
- Final Time: 1:50.08
- Beyer Speed Figure: 95
Publisher took some money in the Arkansas Derby to be sent off a clear fourth choice in the race at 7.6-1. He broke last and settled in a few lengths behind the next-to-last runner in the field, but that wasn’t the worst place to be given the race shape as Cornucopian and Speed King set a suicidal pace up front. He followed eventual winner Sandman’s rally into the race moving up around the far turn. After those two swept past all the pacesetters, Publisher had a couple lengths to find to get past Sandman, but could never make a meaningful dent into that margin and finished second 4.5L clear of third-place finisher and fellow Derby participant Coal Battle.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Publisher’s running style should be suited to the projected fast pace likely to be featured in the Kentucky Derby. While rallying from nearly last is a difficult undertaking, he’ll have one of the best jockeys in America aboard to navigate the journey. He seems to be training well ahead of this event, easily outworking Asmussen’s more fancied Derby entrant, Tiztastic, in their joint morning breeze on April 19th.
Concerns: The over 90 years of Derby history working against horses trying to have their first win as the first leg of the Triple Crown is a primary deterrent to his chances. While his running style should suit the race flow, there are plenty of other capable closers that are likely to get the jump on him including Sandman, the runner who has finished ahead of him in each of his last three starts. I also wonder if his pedigree suggests he’ll be more effective at distances closer to 8-9 furlongs.
Expert Opinions and Odds
On David Aragona’s Derby Watch morning line, he lists Publisher at 20-1. In some offshore markets, you can find him as high as 40-1. Publisher is an intriguing candidate to fill out the bottom of trifectas and superfectas, but cracking the exacta in this year’s Derby seems like too tall of a task.
Conclusion
It would be quite the story if Publisher could pull this off, but there seems to be too many things working against this Asmussen-trained runner. Perhaps we might see him take the biggest class drop in racing after this start and return to maiden special weight company off an effort in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…
