By Eric DeCoster
Introduction
Final Gambit is perhaps the biggest question mark in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. His ascension from a longshot winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks to seemingly one of the “wise guy” horses in the Kentucky Derby would not have been on many racing experts’ bingo cards back on March 1st. But with a sharp victory in one of the final major Kentucky Derby preps, plus some sizzling workouts on dirt, there’s reason to believe Final Gambit will be impactful in the Run for the Roses.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
It took three starts for Final Gambit to finally win his first race. He ran well in his first two outings, placing in a race at Churchill Downs on turf before losing by only a half length on the synthetic at Turfway. His next race would be the charm, as he closed from dead last to win going away, albeit against a weaker field of maidens. Sent off at 15-1 in a competitive rendition of the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, he again settled in the back of the field before unleashing a massive turn of foot to win the race by over 3 lengths. He has never made a start on dirt and has never run shorter than a mile in his career, suggesting the connections believe he will excel as the races get longer and longer.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Not This Time
- Dam & Damsire: Pachinko (by Tapit)
- Owner: Juddmonte
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Luan Machado
Not This Time is one of the most versatile stallions in the world and has gradually gained recognition as a sire who produces high quality raw ability. In recent years his progeny has included Epicenter, the narrow loser in Rich Strike’s Kentucky Derby who then went on to win the Travers and be named Champion 3-year-old. His only other Kentucky Derby starter also came in 2022 when Simplification ran 4th. In 2025, Not This Time has been well represented in Derby preps, with Disco Time and Magnitude both winning graded stakes during the prep season before injury took them out of contention. Not This Time was an emerging talent in his own right on the Derby trail, starting with a close runner-up finish in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before injury forced retirement.
Final Gambit’s dam, Pachinko, began her career in Europe but eventually made her way into the barn of Brad Cox. Like her son, she only ever ran in races at a mile or longer and also focused on turf during her career. She does have one offspring who is older than Final Gambit and that horse has won on dirt multiple times in their career. In general, the influences on both the sire and dam side of this pedigree indicate he should take to the dirt just fine.
Trainer Brad Cox needs little introduction. He has established himself as the most dominant trainer in the country in recent years, winning two Eclipse Awards as Outstanding Trainer, 11 Breeders’ Cup races, and ranking in the top five nationally in earnings every year since 2018. His history in Triple Crown races, especially the Kentucky Derby, reflects just how difficult it is to succeed in these big events. He has run multiple horses in every Kentucky Derby since 2021 but is yet to cross the wire first. Among those 11 total runners he has sent out two post time favorites – Essential Quality in 2021 and Angel of Empire in 2023 – but both came home under the wire in 4th. Cox has technically won the Derby when Mandaloun was elevated to first via disqualification in 2021, but Cox admittedly gets little validation having won a Kentucky Derby in that manner.
Luan Machado began his riding career in Brazil and relocated to the United States in the late 2010’s. After a handful of years posting moderately successful numbers, he emerged as an in demand jockey towards the end of 2022 and full on exploded with a career year in 2024. He took his seasonal earnings to over $10 million last year after having close to $6 million in 2023, and won 155 races in 2024 compared to 97 two years ago. He has had the most success at Turfway Park in the winter and Ellis Park in the summer, riding often for top Kentucky outfits like Brad Cox and Brendan Walsh. Those relationships have translated to opportunities in bigger circumstances, which Machado has taken advantage of with seven graded stakes wins since the start of 2024. Machado had the opportunity to ride Blue Grass runner-up, East Avenue, in this year’s race, but opted to stick with Final Gambit.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (3/22)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 12
- Final Time: 1:50.10
- Beyer Speed Figure: 90
Final Gambit resorted to the same tactics that saw him break his maiden in his prior race by going right to the rear of the field. The pace that day was moderately quick, enough to benefit a closing type like Final Gambit over a synthetic surface. With Luan Machado aboard in this race, Final Gambit had only passed two horses by the time they had reached the quarter pole. But moved into the clear and given clean running room, this colt exploded beyond the tiring speed horses to draw away to a daylight victory in the 1 ⅛ mile race.
Strengths and Concerns
- Strengths: Final Gambit is clearly improving at a rapid rate, maybe better than any other horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He is receiving rave reviews for his workouts on dirt and looks like he will flourish over the surface come race day. His growth from a speed figure perspective is also encouraging, as the 25 jump from a 65 Beyer in his maiden win to a 90 in the Jeff Ruby is tremendous improvement for any horse. He will also be a big fan of the Derby distance given his big, bounding strides and powerful physical build, plus a pedigree to back it all up. Finally, it is extremely telling the confidence the connections have in this horse to run him in the Derby. On pure form he is probably a cut below in any Grade 1 race, but Brad Cox certainly wouldn’t try this horse on dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby of all races if he didn’t think he was capable of running well.
- Concerns: The big red target on this horse’s back is the fact he’s never run on dirt before. Get used to hearing that because it will be the number one talking point surrounding this horse leading into the First Saturday in May. At the end of the day it is a fair criticism; this horse has never had to deal with dirt kickback in his face before and now has to do it in the biggest race of his life. Additionally, even though his form is improving from race to race, Final Gambit still has to make up a lot on the top horses in this year’s Derby. A 90 Beyer in a final prep start is rarely good enough to factor in the big race. He also beat very few high quality horses in the Jeff Ruby. The only other horse in the Kentucky Derby who also ran in the Ruby looks to be Flying Mohawk, who very well could be the biggest price on the board come post time.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Final Gambit will take more money in the Kentucky Derby than a horse with his resume probably should, making him a likely underlay. He should realistically be around 30-1 on race day, but due to his quickly rising stock (for all the reasons previously mentioned) he could be as much as half of that price. Internationally he can be quoted anywhere from 16 to 25-1 and I believe that is a realistic projection. A rational guess would be a 20-1 morning line and he trends a few points higher (21 to 24-1) than that, depending on where the rest of the board goes. Anything less than 20-1 feels like too much “wise guy” money chasing the same horse, but then again any price is a good price if the horse is able to win.
Conclusion
Final Gambit has two big questions to answer come Kentucky Derby day. Can he handle the dirt? Probably, yes. Is he good enough to beat this field? Remains to be seen. That alone should put him in the conversation to be a factor in some way, shape, or form in this year’s race. He is clearly figuring out how to be a top level racehorse at the right time for a trainer who wouldn’t start him if he didn’t have ultimate faith in him. Winning the race might be a stretch due to the imposing presences of Journalism, Sovereignty, and others, but that doesn’t mean Final Gambit can’t at least play a role in filling out trifectas and superfectas.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…
In the Money Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders
