By Michael Domabyl
American Promise will enter the Kentucky Derby under-the-radar having been off seven weeks since his last start. With 55 points, American Promise ranks 15th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with the vast majority earned by his emphatic win in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on March 15th.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
American Promise has been brought along gradually by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas and did not break his maiden until his 6th career start. That was a nice performance to win wire-to-wire over fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful Publisher while posting a credible 95 Beyer. He finished off-the-board in his first two stakes tries, but neither journey was without its hiccups as he broke in a tangle in the Southwest and he was unable to get an advantageous forward position in the Risen Star. He was able to get a clean trip in the Virginia Derby and parlayed that into a resounding 7 ¾ length win that punched his ticket to the 1st Saturday in May.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Justify
- Dam (Damsire): Tapella (by Tapit)
- Owner: BC Stables LLC
- Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
- Jockey: Nik Juarez
At a strapping 17+ hands, this mammoth of a chestnut colt should have no problem seeing out the 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby. His sire Justify won the race himself en route to the 2018 Triple Crown and has already proven to be a sire capable of producing Classic winners as his son City of Troy won up to 12f last year. His dam won $150k on the racetrack but her biggest claim to fame is producing Hoosier Philly, a multiple G2W approaching $1M in earnings.
This jockey/trainer pair is at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to Kentucky Derby experience. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas will be starting his 51st runner in the Run for the Roses in search of his fifth win in the event. Meanwhile, Nik Juarez is riding in the race for the first time. A win here would be a career-defining achievement for Juarez who has yet to pilot a G1 victory.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: Virginia Derby
- Finish Position: 1st out of 7
- Final Time: 1:46.41
- Beyer Speed Figure: 95
American Promise got out of the gate better than he had previously, but the favorite Getaway Car broke like a rocket and went straight to the front. This might have worked to American Promise’s advantage as Juarez was able to flop him to the outside of the favorite and stalk comfortably off his flank. He put away his more diminutive rival at the top of the lane and extended the margin of his advantage finishing strongly through the wire while Getaway Car tired to fourth.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: His large stature and distance pedigree should work to his advantage as these colts extend to the longest distance they’ve contested to-date. He possesses tactical speed and has substantial racing foundation with nine career starts with eight of those coming at a mile or longer
Concerns: Both of American Promise’s two career wins came on or near the early lead and based on his most recent morning workouts it seems like connections are intent on getting him near the front in the Derby. Historically, it has taken a very talented runner to be up close to the Derby pace and stick around for the finish and I’m not confident American Promise is quite up to that level. The other major concern is his penchant for breaking a touch slow which could spell disaster in the expected 20-horse field.
Expert Opinions and Odds
On David Aragona’s Derby Watch morning line, he lists American Promise as a 30-1 shot and that’s about the same price you’d find him in some offshore markets. With him likely to be one of the longer shots on the board, not much equity is gained from being dismissive of his chances. While he clearly has talent and the distance should be no problem, I have difficulty envisioning the right trip for him to be successful in a race with this much early speed signed on. .
Conclusion
American Promise and his connections likely will have a say in how fast the pace of the Derby is as they seem intent on sending to the lead. His Beyer top of 95 has been achieved under the most advantageous of circumstances and he’ll need to take another step forward to compete with the major players in the division. An outside draw would be preferred to allow him to keep his face clean. It would be quite the story if D. Wayne Lukas could saddle another Derby winner just short of his 90th birthday.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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