Andrew Harman is a professional punter.
Royal Ascot opens with a spectacular card on Tuesday and I’m interested in betting three improvers who all look primed to fire career-best efforts on the biggest stage:
Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1), race 1 (2:30pm local, 9:30am ET)
#5 MORE THUNDER (4/1) finished two lengths behind Breeders’ Cup hero and race favourite Notable Speech in their Lockinge clash last month but has a few factors in his favour here to help turn the tables. That was his first run of the season and he should tighten up for the outing, whereas I believe we saw Godolphin’s star at his best last time having already run in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland in April.
More Thunder is still open to further improvement at a mile having spent last year running over shorter distances, for which he lacked a bit of tactical speed so was often left with a mountain to climb. The stiffer stamina test of Ascot’s straight track compared to Newbury’s should suit his grinding, closing style while blunting Notable Speech’s trademark sharp turn of foot. William Haggas’ stable is in tremendous form now after a steady start to the season, and the race promises to set up favourably so I think he’ll be finishing fastest of all.
King Charles III Stakes (Group 1), race 3 (3:40pm local, 10:40am ET)
I can see #21 RAYEVKA (8/1) emerging as a real star of the five furlong division this season. Although she hasn’t won above Group 3 level to date, we’ve seen flashes of her huge talent with scything moves into contention in six furlong Group 1 races such as last year’s Commonwealth Cup before her stamina ebbed away in the final yards. She settled better than previously in her prep run at Longchamp last month which went perfectly and should leave her spot on for this. Connections have worked out that she’s best ridden cold over five furlongs on a sound surface so she can use her burst of pace most effectively and this race has been the plan for a while.
Her draw in stall 15 should be fine as the field will probably split and with the best early speed in the race drawn in the higher numbers, she should be able to find cover tracking these leaders. Big field Ascot sprints usually set up well for her style with the stiff finish leaving pacesetters flagging and the wide straight track allowing the finishers to find a clear run so I’m hoping to see a big performance.
St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1), race 4 (4:20pm local, 11:20am ET)
Billed as a rematch between the English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners, I’m keen to take a shot against them with new face #6 TALK OF NEW YORK (11/2), who strikes me as a colt with real potential. Although he was prominent in the antepost betting for Newmarket’s Guineas after a win at the track in April, trainer Charlie Appleby decided he wasn’t quite ready mentally or physically for such a big test having fallen behind schedule in Dubai over the winter, where he reportedly refused to relax in his training. He benefited greatly from a few weeks off instead, and now seems fully prepared for a step up in class after a sparkling win in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown.
The application of a hood (retained here) has helped him to settle the last twice, and he should get his favoured strong pace to aim at with Puerto Rico likely to set the race up for stablemate Gstaad, who trainer Aidan O’Brien believes takes time to reach top gear. While odds-on favourite Bow Echo is clearly the horse to beat, he was really suited by Newmarket’s Rowley Mile and sat a perfect trip through the race. Navigating a right-hand bend asks a new question of him so Talk Of New York seems the value play.
