Presque Isle on Monday was a blast, and even though I came up one leg short on the Pick 5 (burned by the 1 in the Tom Ridge) I enjoyed getting to see what I consider my home track at least once before the autumn. Onward to Tuesday, lower in purse money but not lacking in exciting fields and competitive races.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 4 ½ furlongs, Maiden Special Weight, Post Time: 3:30 p.m
Getting things kicked off with a 2YO race. If you watched Churchill Downs on Saturday, you will have seen the second ever horse by Flightline to start in the US get taken down by an Early Voting progeny who darted out of the gate and never looked back. That sharp breaking speed is exactly why I trust Last Move (#2) to showcase the same aspects this first crop has flashed across the country with Antonio Gallardo in the irons. H Graham Motion sends That’s Enough (#6) to the gate under the hold of Eclipse Award Apprentice Jockey Pietro Moran, and those connections have me convinced this horse could do something in this race despite the wide draw.
Race 1 selections: 2-6
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
I like Happy Instead (#7) to convert well to all-weather here. Trainer Juan Arriagada has a good history of turning his dirt runners around to success on the synthetic with a solid winrate, and this son of Leofric emerges from that hot Tampa Bay meet, in addition to turning out the highest last Beyer Speed Figure of the group. Lots of horses here seem to be in declining form, which is why I’m going to trust Bahama Channel (#1) in the cutback from 8 furlongs. Chips Legacy (#5) has the potential to dig in on the front end, but I don’t see him beating out #7 on a fair day. Perhaps bias will prove me wrong.
Race 2 selections: 7-1-5
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $8,500 Post Time: 4:24
A lot of front end speed in this race, or so I’d like to believe. I also want to believe that Mor Spring Spirit (#5) is going to bounce back from his poor performance in his last start, but he hasn’t been the same since he was claimed away from Scooter Davis’s barn. Straightouttadutton (#4) feels like the most likely winner with his good break to lead the pack and stick while others fade. Riding A Dream (#3) feels like a lock to hit the board, if for nothing else his relative consistency compared to everyone else in this field and having Israel Rodriguez aboard. Smokin’ Hot (#2) falls into the three-slot almost by default as I’m spooked off the recent forms of both #5 and Goodie Goomer (#6).
Race 3 selections: 4-3-2
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 4:51
Four of these horses come out of the same maiden race on the 26th, with Out In The Cold (#6) showcasing the most ability of the quartet to get up for this win. Au Corant (#4) flashed early speed in his last start and could enjoy the shorter distance here. Finally, Voodoo (#2) has a higher ceiling as an unproven commodity, with improvement expected in his second start.
Race 4 selections: 6-4-2
RACE 5 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 5:18
Ramblin Betts (#5) is the horse to beat in this field, showcasing versatility in his last two starts. He came from off the pace two back and sat close to the speed in his last start. The other likely leader is stablemate Bigonzetti (#4), coming off a layoff and will be more of an interesting play in his next start. Ditto that for Bengal Cat (#1), who had a poor showing at Mountaineer in October before heading to layoff. Hightail Fox (#3) seems more likely to run in the money, following behind the #5 two back then winning his next start at 6 furlongs. Duck Hunter (#6) should be fit and ready after his return race and he posted a .46 workout over 4 furlongs, leading the workout sheet June 11th.
Race 5 selections: 5-3-6
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000 Post Time: 5:45
The pace scenario is going to be interesting, with multiple horses showing success on the lead in their past performances. With the track playing relatively fair, I like Slang (#2) to pick up the pieces under Danny Sheehy when this pace gets out of hand. Candy Reward (#3) has the stamina to outlast the other pace pushers and hang on to hit the board, if not take the field to the wire. Lost And Found (#5) could be versatile in terms of style, and I think he could use that to his advantage to find third place.
Race 6 selections: 2-3-5
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 6:12
St. Emillion (#5) has some booster rockets strapped to him, taking the field wire-to-wire in his last start and breaking his maiden. I’ll trust the meet’s leading rider Antonio Gallardo to control the front end and get this horse to stretch out well. The pair will have to fend off A Million Dreams (#7), who hit the board in all three Presque Isle starts. Revolutionnaire (Fr) (#4) has the class and hopefully has adjusted to the tapeta after his last race, and should be strong enough to make it into the money.
Race 7 selections: 5-7-4
RACE 8 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
Ending things with a full gate to throw some chaos into the late multirace wagers. I’m going to take a shot with Collective Nation (#2) on the inside. Trainer Aldana Speith has a 31% win rate with horses coming off layoffs longer than 180 days, and this horse has hit the board in 4 of her 6 starts at this distance. Mrs. Manicotti (#9) should be a threat on the lead but faded in her last start to third, so it’s possible the cutback in distance allows her to stick around a bit longer. I think another horse to watch is New Diamond (#5), who turned the fastest last out Beyer at 46 and should be competitive today.
Race 8 selections: 2-9-5
Such thrilling races, and very compelling multirace sequences, should one choose to take them on. Will my picks fare better on this card? Will I ever stop picking the horse in the #5 gate? Find out next time on Presque Isle Downs Handicapping.
