Hello! Welcome! Glad you could be here for the inaugural article of Presque Isle Downs Handicapping. The format may change as I get this off the ground but what won’t change is my excitement to bring you my selections for the rest of the Presque Isle meet, and what better day to start than a day with stakes action on the card, the $100,000 dollar Tom Ridge Stakes.
RACE 1 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m EST
I like Spoken Vow (#5) to outlast her rivals on the front end, as she turned the fastest last Beyer of the field (50) and is coming down in class from a state-restricted 31k maiden special weight. Sweet Carol James (#6) should follow close behind, breaking her maiden with a similar trip on the same card as the #5 did and turning a similar BSF of 48. I have little interest in playing the morning line favorite Blast Of Mischief (#4) in this spot when there are proven commodities over the tapeta against her, and her sole win came over a heavily biased Penn National main track. With others in this field looking to be in declining form, I think Knicks Factor (#1) should run up for a spot in the money, although she goes against winners for the first time here .
Race 1 selections: 5-6-1
RACE 2 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
Some of these horses are probably getting tired of seeing each other at the starting gate, which makes me even more fired up to see who comes out on top this time. Something in my gut wants me to take the newcomer Magic Spin (#5) but realistically, he’ll have to be on the lead, something he’s learned to do on dirt but never had success with in any of his previous all-weather starts. More likely, it comes down to the two old warhorses in the field,10-year-olds Danefield (#3) and The Sinner Is You (#6), who finished 2-3 in their last race, the former beating Sinner out by a neck for second at the line. The reverse happens Monday, with Sinner getting over Danefield in a good-ole-boys exacta. I’d be interested in Summerfest (#4) in his next start after he knocks the rust off from his layoff, but he seems as likely as anyone to get up for third here, or perhaps my aforementioned #5 could get up.
Race 2 selections: 6-3-4
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Optional Claiming $13k – $6,250 Post Time: 4:24
If you’re looking for something to single in a multirace wager, look no further than Time For An Angel (#2) to bless your Pick 3 or Pick 4. Barring catastrophe, this daughter of Not This Time should easily outclass this field, working with a familiar rider in Rosario Montanez who’s gotten her across the wire in first in two of her last four starts as well as turning the fastest last out Beyer of anyone by a wide margin. The only real threat in the race is These Apples (#5), who has turned similar BSF’s to the #2 and is coming down in class. Getting the meet’s current leader in the jockey standings, Antonio Gallardo, should make her all the more threatening. There are some dangerous angles to play if you want a price in this race, and the one I’d get most excited about is Sweet Nola (#6), who wintered at Tampa Bay Downs, a meet that’s produced lots of exciting horses in their next starts elsewhere. However her first start elsewhere came over a mile and 70 yards on Monmouth Park’s main track, where she got blown out by over 16 lengths. She’ll be happy to be back at Presque Isle, where she’s run first or second in 10 of her 15 starts over the Erie tapeta.
Race 3 selections: 2-5-6
RACE 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 4:51
The race that marks the halfway point in the card could be wild, but I think there is stability in the favored If I Were You (#6). Flashes of speed in a 46.4 second work on May 22nd have me feeling hopeful that he’s fit enough to take out this competition. Despite that, Ramesses (#3) has my attention as another horse who emerged from the Tampa Bay meet to win big, scoring by nearly 8 lengths in Thistledown last out. That was a drastic class drop from a 16k claiming to 5k, but I think those extra lengths speak for themselves that he’ll be ready for this field. Look for class veteran Traveller (#7) to improve in his second start off layoff and sneak his way into the money.
Race 4 selections: 3-6-7
RACE 5 – 6 ½ furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 5:18
In these kinds of races, first time starters like Tend To You (#8) and Morikawa (#4) are going to take a lot of action, especially the #4, whose sire’s stud fee is far and away the highest in the field. People will want to believe in the potential of an unproven superstar, but Gun Runner progeny are only average on all-weather surfaces, bridging a gap between dismal turf rates and stellar dirt rates. The #8 put in a big workout on June 12th, covering three furlongs over 36 seconds at Turfway Park, which could also entice bettors to hedge money on morning sharpness. I keep coming back to Knicks N Stones (#7) for a few reasons. Expected improvement in his second start, an affinity shown by the Knicks Go progeny with the all-weather, winning at 16% in AW sprints, and he comes out of a much tougher maiden race at Churchill Downs. While I’m hesitant to say he can definitely win, I think he’s worth playing if his odds stay near his morning line. I think the favored Stanz Coming (#5) will be competitive on the front end and could enjoy more ground against this competition, and could drift in price if the first time starters take on money like I think they will. Slotting in Tend To You for third as a horse that could run well given recent training times and carrying Israel Rodriguez, co-second place in the win standings, rounds out these selections nicely.
Race 5 selections: 7-5-8
RACE 6 – 6 ½ furlongs, 13k Starter Optional Claiming Post Time: 5:45
There are two questions Fadethenoise (#1) has to answer: can he break cleanly, and can he sustain the brutal pace he ran in his last start to wire the field for an extra half-furlong? Having the inside is a double-edged sword, and by all signs he won’t make for a profitable bet after winning his last 5 starts in gate-to-wire fashion, however form like that is hard to ignore. It might be what the kids these days call ‘copium’ but I think Top Recruit (#10) can overcome his wide draw to show Fadethenoise a brief struggle, totally based on his second place finish to the 1 last out and not because Afleet Alex is the 10’s damsire and just so happens to be my favorite horse of all time. Span Of Control (#3) concerns me as a horse who likely wants to close going against proven front runners, not to mention the big Into Mischief flag that could send bettors to the window in droves. Venik (#8) could be the more preferred closer, although he raced on a closer-biased track last time out. If you’re interested in a price, Globes (#4) would be really interesting had he not just run a mile and 70 yards seven days ago. Should he run, he’d be shortening up for the first time in his 40 race career.
Race 6 selections: 1-10-8-3
RACE 7 – The Tom Ridge Stakes, 6 furlongs, $100,000 purse Post Time: 6:12
A full field of 12 three-year-old males with an also-elligible entry load the gate for the feature, the $100,000 dollar Tom Ridge Stakes. I can’t fault the favored Oscar’s Hope (#4) for much, looking quick on Oaklawn’s closing weekend with a 90 Beyer in a third-place finish, much quicker than anyone else in the field can compare to. However, to bank on the chalk in this race, on a horse I’m not excited about, doesn’t sit right with me. Wesley Ward’s Double Talker (#8) would have me interested in a snap, with a very profitable turf-to-synth ROI and a pedigree that promises speed over the tapeta if not for the questions of distance littered in the dam’s side of the pedigree, with her average winning distance only 4.5 furlongs. A raiding trainer I will trust is Miguel Clement, whose barn typically sends live ones to Presque Isle on the big days. After all, a Clement has won the last two editions of the Masters Stakes, his late father Christophe winning in ’24 and Miguel following in his father’s footsteps by winning last year (and netting me a $22.60 win price as well as securing me a nice payout on my way to hitting the Keystone Double, or at least it would have if I had anything on it aside from my opinion). A 12-1 price on his runner Grunge (#3), who wired a field on the Aqueduct turf under Jamie Rodriguez in his last start, would suffice as a great bet considering Miguel has proven himself one of the top trainers in the country. I’ll take a stakes winner to slot into second, Live Stream (#6),who won the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes on the Masters undercard last year. Under raider Romero Maragh, I think the #6 will keep it competitive coming from off the pace. Looking at the form, Live Stream definitely needed a race to readjust to the tapeta and I expect big things in this start. I would hope for some translation of #4’s dirt speed to appear on the all-weather, so I certainly wouldn’t leave him out of any boxes or multirace wagers. I’d be remiss if I didn’t touch on the other big raiders coming in, specifically Michael McCarthy’s Small Town (#9), Brad Cox’s trainee Zun Day (#11) and Rob Atras’s Chasing Freedom (#12), all horses that will be popular at the window. If the front end gets out of hand, the 9 is the most likely horse to pick the pieces up, but I don’t know how viable that will be in a 12-horse field and I’d rather have value elsewhere with the #6, a proven commodity over this track. I expect Zun Day to get lost on the front end and never be a factor, especially from his outside post. Lastly, Chasing Freedom’s only win was over a heavily biased Fair Grounds turf course, and given the speed figures, I don’t expect him to be a factor either.
Race 7 selections: 3-6-4
RACE 8 – 1 mile, $7,500 Maiden Claiming Post Time: 6:39
To close out the card, I’ll be looking for Gallardo and Tinseltown (#4) to send me to the pay window. Going from one Rice to another, aunt Linda to nephew Adam, brought a needed change of scenery and a competition level the #4 could handle, finishing second in similar class conditions last time out. It could be a family affair with Adam’s brother Kevin sending out Yourawizard Harry (#7), who ran behind Tinseltown in third in his last start. There is some class to Rivage (#6) but my interest for show is in the lightly raced Montage Blue (#5), stretching out and coming down considerably in class as well.
Race 8 selections: 4-7-5
I’ll be making the trip up to Presque Isle on Monday, sadly my only trip to the beautiful black tapeta this meet until the fall (I’ll be racing elsewhere for most of the summer). If you’re in the area, I hope I’ll see you there!
