By Michael Domabyl
With 37.5 points, Baeza sits just outside of the body of the race currently in 23rd place on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard. We’ve seen defections happen all the way up to the morning of the race, so it’s possible that this exciting prospect still finds his way into the starting gate. Reports are that connections intend to ship to Churchill and enter the race as an also-eligible and there’s precedent for that move working in the past as Rich Strike won the Run for the Roses in 2022 in the same manner.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Baeza has just four career starts to-date with each of the last three being solid performances. It’s probably worth ignoring his debut as it came over the Del Mar turf course and connections were likely looking for a route race to begin his campaign. He finished a distant second in his second start behind fellow Derby participant Rodriguez who was allowed to get away with a clear early lead on a track favoring speed horses. It was in Baeza’s next start that he signaled himself as a rising star in the division, easily dispatching a field of maidens at Santa Anita on Valentine’s Day while earning a strong 93 Beyer Speed Figure. The barn decided to put all its eggs in one basket and target the Santa Anita Derby as the lone try in a Kentucky Derby points race and were a bit unlucky when the race only drew 5 horses. Because of this, Baeza’s 2nd place finish in the race only resulted in 37.5 points as opposed to the 50 it would’ve been awarded with a larger field.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: McKinzie
- Dam (Damsire): Puca (by Big Brown)
- Owner: C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine
- Trainer: John Sherriffs
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
Baeza has a strong pedigree which is one of the main reasons he sold for $1.2M at the 2023 Keeneland Sept Sale. He’s part of the first crop of 3YO’s for sire McKinzie who has got off to a solid start at stud producing Breeders’ Cup competitors Chancer McPatrick, Quickick, and Scottish Lassie. However, it’s the damside pedigree that is worth discussing in more detail. While his dam Puca only managed a minor turf stake win on the racetrack, she’s become quite the blue hen in the breeding shed. Each of her four foals to race thus far are six-figure plus earners including 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. If Baeza ends up winning this year’s Preakness, his dam will have completed a pretty remarkable Triple Crown of her own.
It has been reported that Flavien Prat will pick up the mount on Baeza should he make the field. Prat has never crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby, but his mount Country House was put up via disqualification in 2019. Since then, he’s come close several times and his Derby rides over the past few years have been flawless allowing his horses to achieve the best result possible in the race. It’s been 20 years since John Sherriffs trained Giacomo to a Kentucky Derby victory. His patient operation doesn’t often allow for horses in his barn to be ready this early in their careers, so it’s notable that they’re pressing on to the Derby without certainty they’ll be in the gate.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (April 5th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 5
- Final Time: 1:49.56
- Beyer Speed Figure: 101
What the Santa Anita Derby lacked in quantity was made up for in quality. This was evidenced by the fact Baeza was dismissed as the distant fourth choice at 14-1 behind eventual winner Journalism and the Baffert pair of Citizen Bull and Barnes. It’s evident team tactics were at play early in the race as Baeza’s stablemate, Westwood, was sent hard to the lead and dueled with Citizen Bull through quick early fractions which allowed Baeza’s spot at the tail of the field to be a decent position. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to settle and had to go three wide around the clubhouse turn. His jockey on the day Hector Berrios sensed the pace slowing down on the backside and made a bold rush into the race, getting within a length of the lead at the half-mile pole. He was able to overtake the pace-setter entering the lane, but was unable to hold off Journalism who ran him down despite having some trouble of his own around the far turn.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: This colt clearly has the talent to compete with the best of his generation finishing within a length of Journalism last out and earning one of the few triple-digit Beyers amongst Derby contenders. His pedigree also suggests that he’ll relish the 10 furlongs in the Derby and he’s in the hands of a trainer where continuous improvement is the norm.
Concerns: The major concern is that if Baeza draws into the race off the also-eligible list, he’ll be marooned in one of the outermost stalls which would present issues in navigating a winning trip. He’s not fast enough to clear off to the lead and making a left hand turn out of the gate and settling in the back of the pack might leave him too much to do. The compromise between those strategies likely leaves him losing ground throughout both turns.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Since this colt is currently on the outside looking in, he’s one of the more difficult reads when it comes to his projected price on the day. Where he is offered in some offshore markets, you can find him in the 20-1 range. You should let price be your guide on this colt if he were to draw into the race. Given the likely outside post, it would be wise to demand 15-1 or so to compensate for the likely difficult trip.
Conclusion
However, if there’s one jockey that I would trust in this situation to manufacture a winning trip from a difficult outside post in a 20-horse field, it’s Flavien Prat. While it may be fair to question how he can beat Journalism after that foe bested him last out with a less than ideal journey, their relative disparity in odds should quell those concerns a bit. If he settles in as the fifth or sixth choice at double-digit odds I can see using him prominently in my wagers but would tread lightly if he falls below 10-1.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
For quick hitting info on all 2025 Kentucky Derby horses…
