By ITM Staff
You win the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge by finding a few spots and pushing. After Future Stars Friday at Keeneland, nearly everyone near the top of the leaderboard did exactly that, and the order was decided by who pushed hardest in the Juvenile Turf.
One thing to keep in mind when reading the board: many players are running two entries. The second one appears with a “2” after the name, and the two often take very different approaches. Below, we’ve noted where each contender’s other entry stands.
Matthew McJunkin leads with 44,866 after the first day. Two players went all-in on the last race and are close behind him, and a two-time runner-up is lurking in fifth.
The Top Three
Matthew McJunkin (1st, 44,866) made his whole day with one bet. He put his entire $7,500 bankroll into the Juvenile Fillies: $6,000 on the Emphatic–Sun Goddess double, which paid $43,920, plus a $1,500 saver that missed. After that he just played the minimums: $600 to show on Hughes in the Juvenile, then a $600 exacta box in the Juvenile Turf. Bet big once, then protect the lead.
Vic Stauffer (2nd, 44,442.10), the veteran race caller, played only the required three races and made the most of them. He turned a $600 double in the Juvenile Fillies into $1,464, then put $1,000 on the Hughes–Haffner double, which came back $5,905. For the Juvenile Turf he bet everything he had left:
- $5,000 to win on Haffner (7/2), which returned $23,650
- a 4-10 exacta box for $1,764, which returned $13,371.10
- a $600 2-4-10 exacta box, which returned $1,516
That one race moved him up 115 places.
Scott McKeever (3rd, 41,561.78) had the toughest route of anyone on the first page. He bet nine races and cashed only two small exacta boxes, in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance and the Juvenile Fillies Turf. He went into the last race below his starting bankroll, at $6,936, and bet all of it:
- a $1,500 trifecta with Haffner over Folsom Blues and Avec Toi, which paid $22,447.50
- a $2,000 4-10 exacta box, which paid $15,160
- win bets on Haffner of $500, $200, $100, $25, $10 and, yes, $1
He didn’t leave a single dollar on the table, and he jumped 274 spots.
The Rest of the Top 10
Peter Rogers (4th, 28,220.10) made his day in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Libertango won and Hell of a Spin (15/1 morning line) finished second, and Rogers had them together in a $200 exacta box that returned $11,331. He added a $120 trifecta for $7,425.10 and had $100 each way on Hell of a Spin, which returned $1,659. A Juvenile Fillies trifecta paid another $3,345. He bet only $3,040 all day and sat out the last two races.
Dave Chenvert (6th) and Matthew Nixon (7th) made exactly the same plays:
- $600 to show in the Juvenile Fillies
- everything on Sun Goddess (4/5) to win in the Juvenile Fillies Turf
- everything again on Hughes (4/5) to win in the Juvenile
The only difference was that Chenvert split his final bet into two tickets. Rounding left him on 26,464.62 to Nixon’s 26,464.60, two cents apart.
Gregory Caliwag (8th, 25,573) was the most efficient player on the board. He risked only $2,200 all day:
- a Sun Goddess exacta, which paid $8,304
- the Hughes–Haffner double, which paid $5,905
- the 4-10 exacta in the Juvenile Turf, which paid $6,064
Matthew Zehr (9th, 21,824) had $6,800 on Hughes over two horses in the Juvenile exacta, which paid $21,488.
Kinchen, Boarman, Anderson: The Names You Know
Jonathon Kinchen (5th, 27,466.62) finished second in this event in both 2020 and 2021, and on Friday he played like someone tired of finishing second. He built a small cushion with a dozen little doubles out of the Juvenile Turf Sprint: $602 in, $1,368.80 back. Then he put all $8,266 on one Sun Goddess–Hughes double, which paid $27,360.50.
His second entry is a useful comparison. It made the same early plays, but in the Juvenile Fillies Turf it spread the money over six double combinations instead of one. That entry is 409th. One ticket beat six.
Sean Boarman (10th, 20,498) won this in 2023 with the record total of $642,363. His Juvenile Turf Sprint doubles missed. He then bet $5,000 on the same Sun Goddess–Hughes double, which paid $16,550, and added the 4-10 Juvenile Turf exacta for $4,548. His second entry went 0 for 3.
Brad Anderson (21st, 15,182.40) won this in 2019, and he played Friday with a light touch. He risked only $2,400:
- the Libertango–Emphatic double, which paid $4,720
- Sun Goddess–Hughes, which paid $3,972
- a Juvenile exacta, which paid $1,390.40
He didn’t play the Juvenile Turf. His second entry also went 0 for 3.
The Celebrity Watch
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy had a rough day with both entries.
His first entry lost its whole $7,500 on the undercard, including $5,000 to win in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. It never placed a Breeders’ Cup race bet and isn’t on Saturday’s board.
His second entry did play the Breeders’ Cup races:
- lost a $1,000 exacta box in the Juvenile Turf Sprint
- lost a $3,000 double in the Juvenile Fillies
- cashed $3,500 to win on Sun Goddess for $6,475
- missed in both of the last two races
It has $3,475 left and sits 637th. For what it’s worth, Portnoy was sixth after day one in 2019.
Then there’s celebrity chef Bobby Flay, who bet $18,338 in turnover with a mix of win, place and show bets. He cashed $1,540 to win on Emphatic for $6,098.40, then finished the day with $6.82 left.
The Second Entries
Here’s where the contenders’ other entries stand. Having a second entry alive matters on Saturday, when players can take a different line with each.
- McJunkin2: finished Friday at $0 and isn’t on Saturday’s board. McJunkin’s lead rests entirely on his first entry.
- Stauffer2: 68th (10,374).
- McKeever2: 67th (10,384.50).
- Rogers2: 365th (6,222).
- Chenvert2: 163rd (8,016).
- Zehr2: finished Friday at $0 and isn’t on Saturday’s board.
- Strom2: tied with his first entry for 18th (16,900.30).
- Kinchen2: 409th (5,812.56).
- Boarman2 and Anderson2: both in the big group tied at 5,700.
Also on the Board
- Kevan Strom (T-18th), the 2023 runner-up, split the Juvenile Turf between two horses: $4,083 to win on Folsom Blues, which lost, and $3,573 to win on Haffner. He’s on 16,900.30.
- Dave Smyth (81st, 10,001), the defending champion, got back to just above break-even with $3,600 to win on Sun Goddess.
The Juvenile Turf, for the Record
Haffner caught the long-time leader Avec Toi inside the final furlong and won by 1 3/4 lengths for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. Folsom Blues, the 5/2 favorite, got up for second and Avec Toi held third. Haffner, the third choice at 7/2, paid $9.46 to win. Going by the returns posted on the BCBC leaderboard, the 4-10 exacta paid $30.32 for $2 and the $1 trifecta $89.79.
Saturday
The minimum goes up on Saturday: $600 on at least seven of the nine Breeders’ Cup races. That means the leaders, who bet big once and coasted, can’t just sit on their lead. Expect plenty of movement.
Standings are unofficial, as of 5:50 p.m. ET on Friday, October 30. Wager details are from the BCBC leaderboard. For more handicapping ahead of Saturday, check out the ITM Players’ Podcast BCBC preview.
More Breeders’ Cup: every race, every runner and ITM Staff picks for Saturday are on the ITM Breeders’ Cup hub. And yes, that Jonathon Kinchen: follow his head-to-head picks against PTF, updated after every race.
