photo: janet garaguso/NYRA
As the Breeders’ Cup looms at the end of the week, we wanted to take a look at how each specific jockey performs in various types of races that will be run at Santa Anita. Specifically, in this edition we will take a look at turf races that are 8 furlongs or longer.
The data below is filtered for all Breeders’ Cup races (only BC races, not all races run on BC day), since 2000, at all tracks that Breeders’ Cup races have been run.
The data
| COURSE | JOCKEY | starts | wins | seconds | thirds | win_pct | avg_implied_win_pct | payout | roi | impact_value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turf | John Velazquez | 61 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 14.75 | 9.49 | 81.3 | 1.33 | 1.55 |
| Turf | Lanfranco Dettori | 50 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 20.00 | 11.68 | 61.0 | 1.22 | 1.71 |
| Turf | Ryan Moore | 44 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 20.45 | 14.50 | 69.0 | 1.57 | 1.41 |
| Turf | Javier Castellano | 39 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10.26 | 8.23 | 28.2 | 0.72 | 1.25 |
| Turf | Julien Leparoux | 37 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8.11 | 7.63 | 25.4 | 0.69 | 1.06 |
| Turf | Joel Rosario | 34 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.94 | 7.16 | 13.4 | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| Turf | Kent Desormeaux | 28 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 6.95 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Turf | Rafael Bejarano | 28 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 4.42 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Turf | Garrett Gomez | 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12.50 | 7.98 | 28.6 | 1.19 | 1.57 |
| Turf | Mike Smith | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.17 | 5.03 | 7.0 | 0.29 | 0.83 |
| Turf | Edgar Prado | 23 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.35 | 6.99 | 47.0 | 2.04 | 0.62 |
| Turf | Ramon Dominguez | 21 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9.52 | 8.48 | 47.2 | 2.25 | 1.12 |
| Turf | Corey Nakatani | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 5.58 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Turf | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17.65 | 14.05 | 13.8 | 0.81 | 1.26 |
| Turf | John Murtagh | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.88 | 19.20 | 5.6 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Turf | Jose Ortiz | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6.25 | 6.77 | 7.6 | 0.48 | 0.92 |
| Turf | William Buick | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12.50 | 13.85 | 16.7 | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| Turf | Gary Stevens | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6.67 | 8.53 | 4.5 | 0.30 | 0.78 |
| Turf | Jamie Spencer | 14 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.00 | 6.16 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Turf | Jose Lezcano | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14.29 | 10.73 | 13.9 | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| Turf | Alex Solis | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 | 7.42 | 15.2 | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| Turf | Jerry Bailey | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15.38 | 11.69 | 12.3 | 0.95 | 1.32 |
| Turf | Olivier Peslier | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23.08 | 16.69 | 7.5 | 0.58 | 1.38 |
| Turf | Alan Garcia | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9.09 | 7.36 | 12.7 | 1.15 | 1.24 |
| Turf | Cornelio Velasquez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9.09 | 6.45 | 9.2 | 0.84 | 1.41 |
| Turf | Joseph Talamo | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 6.93 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Turf | Kieren Fallon | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18.18 | 14.53 | 5.8 | 0.53 | 1.25 |
| Turf | Robby Albarado | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 | 4.87 | 76.6 | 6.96 | 3.73 |
| Turf | Michael Kinane | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 20.00 | 17.63 | 7.8 | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Turf | Richard Hughes | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 | 10.70 | 7.9 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| Turf | Victor Espinoza | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.73 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Observations
- John Velazquez shows up amongst the elite turf route riders with the likes of Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore. They all boast positive returns on dollar investments and positive impact values.
- Joel Rosario has only ridden one winner in Breeders’ Cup Turf routes. Pair that with a very low return on a dollar might lead me to shy away from betting him with that much confidence.
- Mike Smith is perhaps another surprising rider who has only gotten one win, and two placing from 24 rides. Another one I might shy away from in these types of races with a very low return of only 29 cents for every dollar bet.
- Further down the list, I think it’s interesting to take a look at Jose Ortiz versus Irad Ortiz. There is a major difference to point out in how heavily their horses get et, with Jose’s horses receiving far less action than Irad’s. The win percentages are vastly different, though, and the ROIs are also significantly different.
