By ITM Staff
ITM Plus · Breeders’ Cup Package
This One’s on Us
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Join ITM Plus →Last week we lined up David Aragona’s pre-entry morning lines against the ante-post market at the sharpest English book and promised to run it again after the draw (ITM, Oct. 22). Here it is, with the official post-draw morning line from breederscup.com and bet365’s prices as of 8:23 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 27, covering all 14 races and 170 horses.
The gaps didn’t close. The morning line barely moved, and where it differed from the market a week ago it mostly still does. Across the seven turf races, bet365 now gives the European-based runners a noticeably bigger share of the win chances than the morning line does, and that split is the main story of this card.
Where the book is keener
These horses are shorter at bet365 than on the morning line. Percentages are each horse’s share of the win chances once both lines are adjusted to total 100% in each race.
| Race | Horse | Pre-entry ML | Official ML | bet365 | Line % | bet365 % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juv. Fillies Turf | Sun Goddess (IRE) | 6/5 | 6/5 | 4/6 | 34% | 46% | +12 |
| Turf Sprint | Bacio | 5/2 | 5/2 | 11/8 | 21% | 32% | +11 |
| Turf | Diamond Necklace (IRE) | 5/2 | 3/1 | 7/4 | 19% | 29% | +9 |
| Mile | Notable Speech (GB) | 8/5 | 7/5 | 10/11 | 32% | 41% | +9 |
| Juvenile Turf | Great Barrier Reef | 9/2 | 4/1 | 9/4 | 15% | 24% | +9 |
| Juv. Turf Sprint | Libertango | 3/1 | 5/2 | 13/8 | 22% | 31% | +9 |
| Juvenile Fillies | Miss Monica | 5/2 | 5/2 | 7/4 | 22% | 30% | +8 |
| Distaff | Nitrogen | evens | 6/5 | evens | 35% | 42% | +7 |
| Filly & Mare Turf | Blue Bolt | 5/2 | 5/2 | 7/4 | 22% | 28% | +7 |
| Dirt Mile | Forged Steel | 12/1 | 15/1 | 6/1 | 5% | 12% | +7 |
- The five horses we flagged last week are still here. Sun Goddess, Bacio, Great Barrier Reef, Libertango and Miss Monica were the horses the book liked most relative to the line on Oct. 22. Only Great Barrier Reef’s gap has narrowed much, from 13 points to 9. Sun Goddess’s looks wider, from 8 points to 12, but her prices haven’t moved (6/5 on both lines, 4/6 at the book). The difference comes from the final field changing the race’s percentages. (Last week’s fields included cross-entries, so the comparison is approximate.)
- The line went the other way on two favorites. Diamond Necklace drifted from 5/2 to 3/1 and Nitrogen from evens to 6/5 on the official line, while bet365 has them at 7/4 and evens.
- Forged Steel is the outlier. The official line lengthened him from 12/1 to 15/1, while bet365 has him at 6/1, third choice in the Dirt Mile.
Where the line is keener
These horses are shorter on the morning line than at bet365. Most of them are U.S.-based.
| Race | Horse | Pre-entry ML | Official ML | bet365 | Line % | bet365 % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenile Turf | How’s Al Today | 4/1 | 3/1 | 6/1 | 19% | 11% | −8 |
| Distaff | Fully Subscribed | 2/1 | 8/5 | 11/4 | 29% | 22% | −7 |
| Turf Sprint | Yellow Card | 15/1 | 8/1 | 33/1 | 8% | 2% | −6 |
| Juv. Turf Sprint | Brickyard Belle | 7/2 | 3/1 | 5/1 | 19% | 13% | −6 |
| Mile | Lake Forest (GB) | 15/1 | 6/1 | 11/1 | 11% | 7% | −4 |
| Classic | Golden Tempo | 6/1 | 5/1 | 9/1 | 13% | 9% | −4 |
| Turf | Bay City Roller (IRE) | 5/1 | 5/1 | 8/1 | 13% | 9% | −4 |
| Turf | Burnham Square | 12/1 | 8/1 | 16/1 | 9% | 5% | −4 |
| Filly & Mare Turf | Kathynmarissa | 6/1 | 5/1 | 8/1 | 13% | 9% | −4 |
| Mile | Rhetorical | 8/1 | 8/1 | 16/1 | 8% | 5% | −4 |
| Juv. Turf Sprint | Harper’s Corner | 8/1 | 8/1 | 16/1 | 9% | 5% | −4 |
- The line went further from the book on its own picks. How’s Al Today (4/1 to 3/1), Fully Subscribed (2/1 to 8/5) and Brickyard Belle (7/2 to 3/1) all shortened on the official line. All three were on last week’s “line keener than the book” list.
- Yellow Card is the biggest mover. The official line cut him from 15/1 to 8/1. bet365 has him at 33/1, tied for the longest price in the Turf Sprint field.
- Golden Tempo is the one notable Classic gap. The line has the Derby winner at 5/1 and bet365 at 9/1.
The turf split, race by race
The pattern from last week holds after the draw. In six of the seven turf races, bet365 gives the European-based runners a bigger combined share of the win chances than the morning line does. The official line barely changed that split from the pre-entry line.
| Race | European-based runners | Official line | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turf | 9 | 78% | 82% |
| Juvenile Fillies Turf | 7 | 73% | 82% |
| Juvenile Turf Sprint | 9 | 66% | 76% |
| Juvenile Turf | 8 | 60% | 72% |
| Mile | 5 | 60% | 72% |
| Filly & Mare Turf | 4 | 48% | 56% |
| Turf Sprint | 3 | 27% | 26% |
The Turf Sprint is the exception, and it isn’t really a home-team story. There the book’s favorite is Wesley Ward’s Bacio at 11/8, U.S.-based and well ahead of the line’s 5/2.
Two races with different favorites
In 12 of the 14 races the line and bet365 agree on the favorite. The other two are both on Friday.
- Juvenile Turf: The official line makes Riley Mott’s How’s Al Today the 3/1 favorite. bet365 has Aidan O’Brien’s Great Barrier Reef at 9/4, Joseph O’Brien’s Folsom Blues second at 3/1, and How’s Al Today third at 6/1.
- Juvenile Fillies: The line has Brendan Walsh’s Emphatic at 9/5 and Bob Baffert’s Miss Monica at 5/2. bet365 flips them, with Miss Monica at 7/4 and Emphatic at 9/4.
How we counted
Three prices for each of the 170 horses in the final fields: David Aragona’s pre-entry morning line for DRF (Oct. 22), the official post-draw morning line published at breederscup.com, and bet365’s win price on Oddschecker at 8:23 a.m. ET on Oct. 27. Also-eligibles who didn’t draw in are left out. Each line was converted to win probabilities and scaled to total 100% within each race, which removes the bookmaker’s margin and the morning line’s built-in percentage. “Gap” is the bet365 share minus the official line’s share, in percentage points.
“European-based” means trained in Europe. Ante-post prices lose if a horse doesn’t run, while morning lines assume it does, so a horse with a doubtful participation can look longer at the book. Prices will keep moving before Friday.
Sources
- ITM, Oct. 22, 2026: Breeders’ Cup 2026 Odds: David Aragona’s Pre-Entries Morning Line vs. the Betting Market
- Official Breeders’ Cup morning lines, breederscup.com (post-draw, Oct. 26)
- bet365 prices via Oddschecker, Oct. 27, 2026, 8:23 a.m. ET
- David Aragona’s pre-entry morning lines, DRF (Oct. 22)
