Breeders’ Cup Blog: Europe, You’re Up

I met Andrew Harman several years ago in Betfair hospitality at Cheltenham and was immediately impressed by his knowledge of racing and insights when it comes to form study. We’ve kept in touch for the last several years and I had the pleasure of hanging out with him and his sister Julia (a knowledgable horse racing fan herself) at last year’s Breeders’ Cup. I was thrilled when he agreed to help us out in our coverage of this year’s BC, through the lens of the potential international raiders. Take it away, Andrew!

The fun, and the difficulty, of the Breeders’ Cup lies in its unique mix of international superstars. As a Brit, I’m not here to talk about America’s homegrown heroes but rather to give an authentically Eurocentric overview of the raiders you might see on your shores this autumn, tracking their progress as November approaches.

Hopefully last year’s controversial late vet scratches won’t deter too many Europeans from making the trip. Coolmore have plenty of Aidan O’Brien-trained candidates as ever and look set to field a typically powerful team. Their plans are notoriously difficult to pin down however, with even Aidan regularly claiming to be in the dark until “The Lads” have discussed all the options and decided who goes where.

With the UK antepost market as a guide, but adding in any others I think merit a mention, I’ll go through all the most likely European contenders race-by-race, starting today with the big three – Classic, Turf and Mile. I’ll also provide a regular round-up of any new and relevant information, including “Win And You’re In” (WAYI) races, as the series goes on.

Classic

Aidan O’Brien’s Epsom Derby and Eclipse winner City Of Troy (8/1) runs in the WAYI Juddmonte International Stakes at York on August 21st. The Classic is his main end-of-season aim and a win would no doubt do wonders for his global appeal and value at stud. He’s only raced on turf so far in Europe and connections haven’t mentioned any dirt prep races since they decided against going to the Travers Stakes, which the Coolmore-owned, Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone heads the betting for. Aidan told Luck On Sunday in June that they plan to give him a racecourse gallop at Southwell’s all-weather track, a move previously used before Classic near-misses with Giant’s Causeway in 2000 and Declaration Of War in 2013 – in those days, however, Southwell had a Fibresand surface which was much closer to dirt than the current Tapeta surface, so I can’t see this being much help. His Triple Crown-winning sire, Justify, does offer real hope that dirt will suit him and PTF was positive on his physique for handling the dirt having seen him in the flesh at Sandown last time.

Winning the Classic has long been the ultimate dream for Coolmore, and if everything goes right for Sierra Leone in the Travers, they might be delighted to have two contenders, but there must also be a possibility that they could avoid the clash and switch City of Troy to the safer option of the Turf, especially if last year’s winner, Auguste Rodin, doesn’t make the trip to Del Mar.

Auguste Rodin (33/1) reportedly worked well on the dirt at Santa Anita last year when training for the BC Turf and connections have had this race in the back of their minds ever since. However, City Of Troy has since emerged as a champion with a stronger case on pedigree for a crack at the dirt, and it hasn’t been all smooth sailing on the track for Auguste Rodin this year so Coolmore are looking East with him instead. As he’s by Japanese ace Deep Impact, a Japan Cup win would make him a superstar there and incredibly valuable at stud, so it was announced last month that this was his main end-of-year target. Assuming this is still the plan following the King George flop, and I haven’t heard them suggest otherwise, this presumably puts him out of contention for the Breeders’ Cup which falls only 3 weeks before the Japan Cup on November 24th. However, if they change their minds and go to Del Mar instead, the Turf seems much more likely than the Classic given their stronger dirt contenders and the fact that he’s won the WAYI Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Connections have announced that Dubai Turf winner Facteur Cheval (unquoted) will try dirt for the first time in the Classic, with only a possible run in the Prix du Moulin beforehand (if the ground isn’t too fast). He’s gone well fresh so a break wouldn’t be a concern. He reportedly trained very nicely on the dirt at Meydan while he was there winning the Dubai Turf in the spring, and if it goes well it’ll open up other valuable options on the surface including the Saudi Cup and the Dubai World Cup. He’s a big unit physically with high-class turf form, and, while the pedigree isn’t encouraging, dirt racing promises to suit his attritional style, as he struggles for an instant change of gear in steadily-run turf races. It’ll be fascinating to see how he gets on and if these bookmakers who aren’t quoting him were to offer silly prices of 33/1+ on request, he’d be worth an interest. The race is definitely the plan for him, and owners Team Valor & Gary Barber know the time of day.

Turf

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record seven times, so figuring out his likely runner(s) should go a long way to solving the puzzle, but this is easier said than done. Last year’s winner Auguste Rodin (8/1) and City Of Troy (8/1) are undoubtedly his strongest cards. While it’s possible that either could run, if Coolmore have dreams of a Japan Cup and a Classic then they might have to sacrifice the Turf, or at least get creative to find a genuine contender. This will partly depend on the weather for the Arc meeting and British Champions Day, as their fast ground horses can be aimed here if October is wet in Europe. One option is to switch a filly (e.g. Opera Singer 20/1) from the F&M Turf, or perhaps last year’s St Leger winner and Arc 5th Continuous (20/1) will have bounced back to form by then following a disappointing return to action at Royal Ascot. Irish Derby winner Los Angeles (16/1) is another possible, but he’s a huge colt who promises to stay further so Del Mar’s tight turns wouldn’t be ideal.

Godolphin also have a strong hand here. Silver Knott (10/1) has improved a lot this year stretched out in distance, winning three Grade 2s in good style at 11/12f. He could run in the Joe Hirsch Stakes in early October next and looks a key player in the division, probably Charlie Appleby’s number one for the race as things stand. 2022 Turf winner Rebel’s Romance (16/1) has won two Grade 1s this year and is easily excused his defeat in the King George where he sat too close to the strong pace and ran a creditable 3rd in the circumstances. However, Godolphin recently announced that his main target would be the Hong Kong Vase on December 8th. Though he’s still a possible runner here, it suggests he might not be primed for this race. His half-brother Measured Time (14/1) has also won two Grade 1s this year, and though he’s unproven at 12f (beaten at odds-on in a falsely-run all-weather race on his only try), he’s improving with every run and shouldn’t be underestimated – his sire, Frankel, is a strong stamina influence. Nations Pride (20/1) ran out a convincing winner of the Arlington Million on Sunday but that 10f distance is much more suitable, with the Turf’s 12f his absolute maximum. He missed the race last year to run over shorter instead and could do the same again if preparations go smoothly for his stablemates.

Goliath (8/1) was a hugely impressive winner of the WAYI King George at Ascot but his trainer Francis-Henri Graffard reported to the Racing Post on Sunday that his owner, Philip Baron von Ullmann, isn’t keen on going to the Breeders’ Cup as he believes the track wouldn’t suit him. He’ll be aimed instead at either the Japan Cup or Hong Kong. Stablemate and King Edward VII Stakes winner Calandagan (14/1) has the tough task of taking on City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International for his next assignment. He’s lightly built and needs time between races so he missed the King George and has had a nice break since Royal Ascot, where he seemed to really enjoy the step up to 12f and switch to faster ground. He’s a possible for Del Mar, with the Arc out of the equation as a gelding, and looks a big player.

Economics (12/1) is one of the brightest prospects in Europe after a brilliant Dante win at York in May. However, he’s a huge, inexperienced horse and trainer William Haggas has been keen not to rush him this year, missing races like the Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International, so it’s very unlikely that he’ll be making the journey to race around the tight turns of Del Mar. He’s running in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville on Thursday ahead of a possible first Group 1 run in the Irish Champions Stakes, which is sponsored by the family of owner Isa Salman Al Khalifa. Keep an eye out for him wherever he goes!

Sosie (10/1) has quickly developed into one of the leading middle-distance prospects in Europe after a classy win in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris following his 3rd in the Prix du Jockey Club. While his main target is the Arc via a trial in the Prix Niel, with almost four weeks between the Arc and the Turf he could conceivably run in both after quite a light season so far. He doesn’t enjoy very soft ground, with his two defeats coming on the most testing ground he has faced so, while Del Mar will be the fastest he has ever tried, it might suit him and if conditions for the Arc became very testing, perhaps he might even skip it. His legendary trainer, Andre Fabre, and owners, the Wertheimer Brothers, have lots of history at the Breeders’ Cup so will surely have their eye on the Turf and he looks a big player.

Unbeaten Look De Vega (14/1) is favourite for the Arc after a dazzling win in the Prix du Jockey Club. Ballylinch Stud and Al Shaqab have recently bought a joint majority share in this exciting prospect, who should be fine at 12f and will take some beating wherever he goes. He’s a sizeable colt who has appeared well suited by testing ground in France so he’s an unlikely runner in the Turf unless connections indicate otherwise after the Arc.

Al Riffa (16/1) has entered the Arc picture with an easy win in the Grosser Preis von Berlin on Sunday on his first try at 12f but struggled on the fast ground in the Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga in June. He goes well with some ease in the ground so seems unlikely to make the trip to Del Mar.

King Of Steel (16/1) was injured in May and taken out of training; as far as I know, there is no prospect of him returning this year. Even if he did, home targets like the Champion Stakes at Ascot would be much more suitable.

Mile

Godolphin have two of the leading contenders here. Notable Speech (7/2), the 2000 Guineas winner, bounced back to form to win the Sussex Stakes with a blistering turn of foot and the Del Mar mile looks an ideal test for him. Coping mentally with the travelling is likely to be the biggest challenge but he’s maturing by the day and is the one to beat if making the journey. Last year’s winner Master Of The Seas (8/1) was recently ruled out of the Fourstardave at Saratoga with a bruised foot, but had made a very impressive return in the Maker’s Mark in April. It’s a small concern that we haven’t seen more of him this year, but he’s always gone well fresh and trainer Charlie Appleby is often happy to run two big guns against each other. Ottoman Fleet (20/1) took over the mantle of favourite in the Fourstardave on Sunday but was very disappointing and is hard to fancy off that effort.

Coolmore lack milers at the moment. Henry Longfellow (20/1) didn’t look cut out for speed tests at a mile on fast ground when beaten favourite in the Sussex last time. Diego Velazquez (16/1) is an interesting one – he was odds-on for the Saratoga Derby when it was first postponed on August 3rd. Aidan O’Brien was interviewed on Racing TV a few days later and said his next main aim was the Group 2 Solonaway Stakes over a mile on Irish Champions Weekend (September 14th). He compared Diego to Circus Maximus (who finished 2nd and 4th in the 2020 and 2019 editions of the BC Mile) in that they shape like middle-distance horses, so were tried up to 12f, but are actually quicker than they seem and most effective at a mile. 2020 Mile winner Order of Australia also had this profile so Aidan has history with this move – although 16/1 isn’t exactly generous, he’s unquoted with most firms who will probably offer bigger than this if requested to add him.

Porta Fortuna (7/1) has American owners so the Breeders’ Cup will have been the plan all season, as it was last year when 2nd in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s having a break at the moment ahead of the Matron on Irish Champions Weekend and possibly the Sun Chariot at Newmarket in early October. The Mile is the clear choice of race for her with the F&M Turf being run over 11f this year, a trip well beyond her optimum even at Del Mar. Conditions will suit Donnacha O’Brien’s tough, reliable filly and, while she might lack the star quality of a Notable Speech, she won’t be far away.

Rosallion (6/1) is on the easy list following the respiratory infection which ruled him out of the Sussex. While he should recover in time for the Breeders’ Cup, Sheikh Mohammed Obaid al Maktoum’s bloodstock adviser Liam O’Rourke recently told the Racing Post that he’s unlikely to make the trip as the owner does not wish to ship him that far.

Charyn (10/1) is a vastly improved performer this year, having strengthened up a lot from 3 to 4, and was very impressive in the Jacques le Marois to confirm his status as Europe’s leading older miler. Having won the WAYI Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, he’s a possible runner, but trainer Roger Varian confirmed to Sky Sports Racing after Sunday’s win that the QEII at Ascot on Champions Day (October 19th) is his main target. Having started the year early at Doncaster in March, it’s a big ask to do both so late in the season, and the stiffer track and very likely easier ground at Ascot is much more suitable for him, so I think he’s unlikely to make the trip. However, he’s a laid back character who holds his condition incredibly well, and the entry fee and travel being paid could tempt them. Though Roger Varian is generally a cautious campaigner, he did attempt the quick back-up from Champions Day to BC Turf with King Of Steel last year. This may have been driven by his owner, Kia Joorabchian, to be fair, but either way it didn’t work out with King Of Steel only able to finish 5th.

Ramatuelle (12/1) hasn’t convinced with her stamina for a mile on either attempt but shaped best in the 1000 Guineas when kicked for home a long way out off a strong pace. She has the class to contend here and this sharp test of speed will suit better than Ascot and Newmarket, but she’d probably be better served going back to sprinting or the 7f Prix De La Forêt on Arc weekend.

Audience (12/1) has matured a lot since his headstrong younger days and can run to a high level when getting his conditions and the right tactical set-up. He wants fast ground over 7f or an easy mile and an easy time on the front end as he had in the Lockinge and Lennox – this test will suit him, but a really contested battle for the lead will make things difficult. His next target is the City Of York on August 24th, then the 7f Prix De La Forêt on Arc weekend, but only if the ground stays on the faster side. Ascot’s QEII on British Champions Day won’t suit him as the stiff mile stretches his stamina and he’s unlikely to get his favoured fast ground there, so expect to see him at Del Mar.

Haatem (16/1) has had a great year so far with two Guineas places and two Group 3 wins but he was a late withdrawal at the start in the Jacques Le Marois on Sunday, with jockey James Doyle feeling he wasn’t 100% on the way to post. All plans are on hold while he’s fully checked over, while the form of his Jersey win at Royal Ascot is working out incredibly poorly, so you couldn’t be confident in him at the moment. Unquestionable (33/1) has joined Richard Hannon since his creditable 4th in the St James’s Palace for Aidan O’Brien and while he might not be quite good enough to win, this seems an obvious end-of-season target for last year’s Juvenile Turf hero.

1000 Guineas winner Elmalka (20/1) seems an unlikely runner, with trainer Roger Varian telling Sky Sports Racing recently that she hasn’t enjoyed running on fast ground in her last two starts – softer ground in Europe in the autumn will suit her much better. Docklands (33/1) was 2nd in the Queen Anne and runs in the Juddmonte next, but his Australian owners are aiming him at the Cox Plate on October 26th so he won’t go to Del Mar.

Thanks for reading if you’ve made it this far! If there’s one you’re interested in that hasn’t got a mention, please leave a comment and I’ll get back to you.