Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Preview – By Drew Coatney

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

By Drew Coatney

If you like complex betting races, this is your race. The shortest price on the board is likely to be 3-1. With support for the local War Like Goddess, trust in speed with Loves Only You, or the class angle of Love and Rougir, the money is bound to come pouring in across the tote. Whatever angle you love, this race has it all. It’s going to be a fun one and I can’t wait to watch it.

Another good race to play in the win pool and will be circling some exactas with my two Euros Picks and Pocket Square (leaving out War Like Goddess of the Exacta)

  • Best Value: #2 Pocket Square (15-1) This could blow up many tickets who are focused on the Euro invaders. I don’t think we have seen the true potential of this runner and that will be on full display this weekend. She has only raced once over a firm course and continues to get slow paces to overcome. The trip should suit, sitting in the pocket and sneaking up the rail at the 1/8 pole. I would imagine Chad Brown has the screws tightened on this runner with plenty of unexposed form (even with the dozen or so races). Importantly, Brown has been forced to take this one along slowly with the notable side-lining that took place during the three year old year. The figures earned during the two year old campaign is on par with Love, our second choice. Who better than Chad Brown to get a Juddmonte horse ready to roll on the biggest stage. Value line is at 8-1 and I expect we will see all of that price.

 

  • Most Logical: #6 Love (4-1) Hard one to figure out. Last out was beaten by a brutal nose and was a very short price. Ran into a bit of a trip having to make the first move while the eventual winner drafted behind this runner, so we’ll upgrade that effort. Two back tried to quicken but was struggling to make headway on the easier foes for minor placings: the connections made a few excuses for this effort. Now the other two races in 2021 are where we base this pick: good to firm and went to the lead, earning the strongest Timeform Figures of the year. I do like that this runner has taken a few missteps in the prior two starts. The betting public is likely to hold those races against this runner and will juice up the price we’ll see on the tote. Fair value stands firm at 5/2.

 

  • Next Best: #8 Loves Only You (4-1) Has competitive Timeform Figures to compete with #6 Love. Would expect this runner to be forwardly placed and get the distance. Speed has historically been favorable at Del Mar, so maybe that bias is just enough to tip the scales in this one’s favor.

 

  • Fading: #7 War Like Goddess (7/2) One dimensional closer type that continues to get pace setups. I would prefer the Brown runner over this one. Could make for a fun head to head Pocket Square vs. War Like Goddess.

 

  • Fading: #4 Rougir (6-1) Will be too far off the pace in what doesn’t present to be a hot one. Overall Timeform Figures are a few notches below the top two Euros.

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