2026 Breeders’ Cup Mile: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Notable Speech is the defending champion, but our numbers make him an underlay, and we’ll take a shot with Qirat. He’s the former pacemaker who won the Sussex at 150/1 and has kept proving it was no fluke, with wins in the Criterion and, on Oct. 3, the Prix Daniel Wildenstein, where he made all.

Ralph Beckett says a turning track suits him, and Keeneland has plenty of turn. The worry is pace: Cabo Spirit and Deterministic project close to him. Colin Keane rides from post 7.

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Post 1 · T: Miguel Clement · J: Kendrick Carmouche · Line 10/1

The streak that ended at Woodbine. Deterministic, a 5-year-old by Liam's Map, went into the Woodbine Mile on Sept. 12 having won six in a row, four of them Grade 1s, including the Fourstardave at Saratoga in August. The streak began for the late Christophe Clement and has continued under Miguel Clement. At Woodbine he set the pace under Kendrick Carmouche and was run down by Notable Speech, beaten 1¼ lengths. Clement pointed out that the course had been kind to closers all day. He'd like a stronger pace here, saying "It would be ideal if he gets a real pace to run at," and he'd prefer firm turf. This is his first Breeders' Cup and his first start on Keeneland's turf. Last week he worked five furlongs in 1:00.18 by himself at Saratoga, which Clement rated as outstanding. Carmouche rides from the rail.

Post 2 · T: William Haggas · J: Cieren Fallon · Line 15/1

The world traveller. Lake Forest is a 5-year-old gelding by No Nay Never who has been to Australia and back twice, and he won the Golden Eagle there in November 2024. After a winless 2025 he's been back in form this year, winning the Spring Trophy at Haydock and the Lennox at Goodwood before running second to Notable Speech in the City of York. The Breeders' Cup Mile has been the main target since September, and he had a dress rehearsal over this course and distance in the Coolmore Turf Mile on Oct. 3. He was off the pace and finished second to Rhetorical. Cieren Fallon was pleased with how he finished and said the gelding wants a strong pace to run at. Fallon expects more pace here, and he rides again from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Mark Casse · J: Manuel Franco · Line 50/1

The new recruit. Facteur Cheval is a 7-year-old gelding by Ribchester with more than $5.7 million in earnings, and his biggest win came in the 2024 Dubai Turf. Formerly trained by Jerome Reynier, he now races for Team Valor and Gary Barber with Mark Casse. He was sixth in the Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 7, closing from off the pace, then made his first start for Casse in a Keeneland allowance race on Oct. 8 and won by a half-length. Casse said the key was riding him more aggressively and getting him involved in the race early. At the time, Casse was pointing him to the River City at Churchill in November, so the Mile is a late change of plan. It's a big step up from an allowance win. Manny Franco rides from post 3.

Post 4 · T: George Papaprodromou · J: Mike Smith · Line 30/1

The old man of the field. Cabo Spirit is a 7-year-old gelding by Pioneerof the Nile with 45 starts behind him, and on Sept. 26 he became the oldest winner of Santa Anita's City of Hope Mile. He led all the way in a five-horse field and held off the favorite, El Potente, by a head to end a six-race losing streak. That earned him a fees-paid berth here. He'd been knocking on the door all summer at Del Mar, second by a nose in the Eddie Read and fourth by a half-length in the Del Mar Mile. Mike Smith, the Hall of Famer who turned 60 in August, says the gelding always puts in a race good enough to win. This is his second Breeders' Cup. He was 12th in the 2024 Turf at Del Mar. Smith rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Hideaki Fujiwara · J: Ryusei Sakai · Line 30/1

The 3-year-old from Japan. Ask Ikigomi is a son of Lord Kanaloa bred by Northern Racing, and this spring he won the Churchill Downs Cup at Hanshin. Then he lost the NHK Mile Cup, a Grade 1, by a nose. Hideaki Fujiwara wasn't discouraged. He said afterward that the colt was still immature and would improve a lot. Fujiwara made clear in June that the Breeders' Cup was the goal, saying the trip was a dream for the owner and that they wanted to go if they got the chance. They got it. He was the first also-eligible when the pre-entries came out, and he drew into the field. Ryusei Sakai, who rides Forever Young in the Classic, takes the mount from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Chad Brown · J: Flavien Prat · Line 15/1

The Keeneland Grade 1 winner looking for his form. Zulu Kingdom won a maiden in France for Andre Fabre, then won his first two U.S. starts for Chad Brown and took the American Turf at 3. In April he made all to win the Maker's Mark Mile here off an eight-month layoff, giving Brown his 3,000th career win, with Notable Speech fourth. He hasn't won outright since. He was third in the Poker at 3/10, dead-heated with Mi Bago in the Kelso, ran third in the Fourstardave after getting boxed in on the turn, and was fifth in the Coolmore Turf Mile from the widest draw. Brown blamed the last one on the ride: "He didn't get a good ride last time rating off a slow pace." Flavien Prat, who rode him to the Maker's Mark win and says he's "very naturally fast," is back aboard from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Ralph Beckett · J: Colin Keane · Line 30/1

The pacemaker who forgot to stop. Qirat went into the 2025 Sussex Stakes as Juddmonte's pacemaker for Field Of Gold and won it at 150/1, a neck ahead of Rosallion. He's spent the time since proving it was no fluke. This year, as a 5-year-old, he won the Criterion Stakes at York by 1½ lengths in June, and on Oct. 3 he made all to win the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at ParisLongchamp, after which Silvestre de Sousa called him "a proper miler." Ralph Beckett says "a turning track suits him really well," which is why Goodwood is his favorite course. Our pace projection makes him the most likely early leader, with Cabo Spirit and Deterministic close behind, so he may not get things his own way. Colin Keane picks up the ride from post 7.

Post 8 · T: Charlie Appleby · J: William Buick · Line 8/5

The defending champion, one last time. Notable Speech won the 2000 Guineas at 16/1 in 2024 and last year's Breeders' Cup Mile at Del Mar, and Charlie Appleby said in August that the colt is in the final year of his career. He ran here in April and was fourth in the Maker's Mark Mile behind Zulu Kingdom, a day William Buick says they "never got a fair crack at it." Since then he's won the Lockinge, the City of York over seven furlongs and, for the second year running, the Woodbine Mile, beating Deterministic by 1¼ lengths. That's the same route that worked last year. The one blot was Royal Ascot, where he was sixth in the Queen Anne. Appleby calls him "a quick ground horse," so keep an eye on the weather. Buick rides from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Will Walden · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 8/1

Back in the zone. Rhetorical is a 5-year-old New York-bred gelding who has now won the Coolmore Turf Mile here twice. Last year he took it by three-quarters of a length. This year, on Oct. 3, Irad Ortiz Jr. sent him to the front and he won by 2¼ lengths as the 9/5 favorite, with Lake Forest second and Brilliant Berti fourth. It followed the same pattern as 2025: a fourth in the Fourstardave at Saratoga, then a big autumn. Will Walden says the gelding hit a peak at this time last year, and he's done it again. He also won the Churchill Downs Turf Classic this spring and has more than $2.5 million in earnings. Irad is out injured, so Jose Ortiz takes over from post 9, and Walden is fine with that: "nobody knows Irad better than Jose."

Post 10 · T: Haruki Sugiyama · J: Oisin Murphy · Line 30/1

The sprinter stretching out. Lugal won Japan's Sprinters Stakes in 2024, and Haruki Sugiyama said afterward that winning a Grade 1 was "the best feeling." He's a 6-year-old by Duramente, and this year he ran second in the Al Quoz Sprint and eighth in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He was pre-entered for both the Turf Sprint and the Mile, and he ends up here, which means stretching out to a mile against some of the best milers in the world. Sugiyama's approach to the Mile was simple. He said in early October that if the horse was selected, they would go. He was, so here he is. Oisin Murphy picks up the ride from post 10. He's the second of two Japanese runners in the race, alongside Ask Ikigomi.

Post 11 · T: Michael McCarthy · J: John Velazquez · Line 15/1

Last year's runner-up. Formidable Man closed from seventh to finish second to Notable Speech in the Mile at Del Mar last November. He's a three-time Grade 1 winner, with the 2024 Hollywood Derby, the 2025 Frank Kilroe Mile and this May's Shoemaker Mile on his record, and he's won nine of 19 starts. After the Shoemaker he was third, beaten a head, as the favorite in the Eddie Read after a wide trip. Then came a clunker at Kentucky Downs, where he was seventh as the 5/2 favorite in the Mint Millions. Michael McCarthy took the blame himself: "That's called trainer error." He decided to train him up to the Breeders' Cup from there. His last work was five furlongs in 1:01.20 here at Keeneland on Oct. 24. John Velazquez rides from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Wayne Lordan · Line 8/1

Speed, now with a bend. Aidan O'Brien said in September that he sees True Love as all about speed, but she has won a 1000 Guineas at a mile. She's since been second to stablemate Precise in the Irish 1000 Guineas, third in the Coronation and second, beaten a half-length, in the Prix Jean Prat. On Oct. 4 she won the Prix de la Forêt at ParisLongchamp, a Win and You're In for this race. Afterward O'Brien said Ryan Moore felt she now enjoys a strongly run, aggressive race, and that "going round a bend at Keeneland should suit her." That would be a change from last year at Del Mar, where she was eighth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and, in O'Brien's words, "found the turns strange." He later admitted, "I ran her in the wrong race in America." Wayne Lordan, who won the Guineas on her, rides from post 12.

Post 13 · T: Cherie DeVaux · J: Brian Hernandez Jr. · Line 30/1

The family horse. Brilliant Berti is a 5-year-old homebred for Richard Klein, whose family line traces to a yearling he bought at Keeneland in 1992, and Klein said in the summer of 2025, "My dream would be next year at Keeneland." He made it, despite starting the week outside the also-eligibles. Keeneland is a happy place for him. He won the Bryan Station here in 2024 in stakes-record time, and he was third in the 2025 Coolmore Turf Mile and fourth in this year's running behind Rhetorical. In between, he won the Green River Island at Ellis Park in August and was third in the Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. Fun fact: he was Golden Tempo's work partner before the Kentucky Derby. Brian Hernandez Jr., his regular rider, is aboard from post 13 for Cherie DeVaux.

Post 14 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Ryan Moore · Line 30/1

The 2-year-old star trying to find his way back. Puerto Rico was still a maiden after five starts last year, then won the Champagne, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère and the Critérium International, the last two at Group 1 level. Aidan O'Brien rated him Europe's top maiden. This year has been a struggle. He was fourth in the Poulains, unplaced in the St James's Palace, 11th of 12 in the Sussex and sixth in the City of York. O'Brien said Ascot was "a complete mess for him." Then, on Oct. 4, he ran third in the Forêt behind stablemate True Love, beaten a head for second. O'Brien has always said he has "a lot of speed but he stays as well." Ryan Moore rides from the far outside, post 14.