LS: Long Shots BF: Bad Favorites
Race 1: 1-4-6 LS: 1
Gonna take a stab with my Long Shot Play of the Day here in Race 1, with #1, Love My Boss (10-1 ML). There appears to be plenty of early speed signed on, and perhaps the #4 Greater Cairo will wire the field….but the extra 1/2 furlong will do him no favors, and Love My Boss is turning back, has a nice closing kick, and has figs good enough to complete if you ignore last poor effort. Interesting.
Race 2: 2-1-3
#2 Derby Code in the great form…colt has won 3 of last 4, all wins on dirt. Back to preferred surface and should work a great trip from the inside here…runs down the speed in the stretch.
Race 3: 4-5-6
#4 Omen of Change (9-2 ML) should go off lower than that. If not, might need to make an extra trip to the ATM to bet this one. Has best, most consistent dirt numbers by far and was caught up in fast pace in small stake in N. Dakota last time. If he bounces back to last few efforts, he’s got a huge shot.
Race 4: 3-5-4
P5 starts here…….ABC selections below:
|
Race # |
A | B |
C |
|
4 |
3,5 | 4 |
X |
|
5 |
3,6 | X |
4,5 |
|
6 |
1,3 | 2,7,8 |
5,6 |
|
7 |
6 | 2,5,7 |
3 |
|
8 |
3 | 1,2,4 |
5,6 |
Caveman P5 ticket: 345 / 36 / 12378 / 2567 / 3 ($60)
I’m not sure I trust #3 Charlies Missile, but seems to have best figs in a weak race. Her main threat might be the first-time starter for Lothenbach Stables, #5 Birdie Be Gone, a half to nice MN-bred mare and 200k+ money earner Clickbait.
Race 5: 3-6-4
On paper, I think this is a two-horse race between the #3 Ship’s Creek and the #6. Ship was rank last time and was further back than usual. A better, more comfortable trip could equate to a win for her. Would like to see jockey Lindsay be aggressive from the start and get an up-close trip.
Race 6: 3-1-2
Nice opt. alw. 25k clm. race on the turf. #3 Firstmate has been great on the green, with 2 wins and 1 second in 4 starts. Ignore dirt efforts and she will be one of the ones to beat. Likes to use her tactical speed, will be beneficial on this turf course.
Race 7: 6-7-2
Tough race to handicap, probably need to spread in your P5. Soft choice is #6 Ima Harley Too, who has run great in last two starts finishing 1st and 2nd. Little concerned about the jockey switch off of Wade, who goes to another threat in here, the #7 Caramel Angel. That gelding actual has back-numbers that can easily win, but has regressed in last two starts. Looks like he needs the lead and won’t get it, while Harley appears will benefit from the contested early lead.
Race 8: 3-2-4
Hope #3 So Alive will reflect my betting opinions in the P5 going into this last race….. this gelding had no chance last time going 6f while too far back in a very fast race vs. toughies. Stretches out to his preferred distance, drops in class, and has a nice kick to run down the speed from the outside horses. Taking a stand here in the P5.
Races 9 and 10 are Quarter Horse races and therefore not covered in this blog. Good luck tonight!!
