Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Saturday, May 15, 2021 – Edison Hatter

Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_

Most Likely Winner: Race 7- (5) STRETCH THE TRUTH

Race 1: (6) PRIVATELY towers over this field on paper and has crossed the wire first in all three of her career races; the negative here is that she may need a race coming off of a year and a half layoff for a trainer that is only hitting at 8% off the bench. (4) MISS WAVE comes of a nice allowance win and she will look to build on that momentum; the pace setup will likely not favor this runner, who will be closing from the clouds late. (2) THISLILLIMEOFMINE has been racing well against similar and should be close to the early pace again here.

Picks: 6-4-2

Race 2: (4) LITTLE BOLD BANDIT and (6) DON’T DARE ME are clearly the two to beat here as indicated by the morning line. Slight edge given to the former as he comes out of tougher races at Laurel and Pimlico and should have a tactical advantage with the draw inside of his main pace foe. (2) ACES UP could be a live runner on debut as he shows a consistent work tab in preparation for the debut.

Picks: 4-6-2

Race 3: (5) THAT KENNY KID disappointed last time out in a stakes race after breaking slowly and never really getting involved in the race. She should be close to the pace tonight with a clean break and be close enough late if good enough. She’ll look to bounce from that race here and beat (6) DOOR BUSTER, who was an upset 15-1 winner in the aforementioned stakes race. She has raced very well over this Charles Town surface and will be looking for her third win in a row against this very talented allowance field. (7) BOUNDTOBEOK has the gate speed to sit just outside of the early leaders and pick up a piece here.

Picks: 5-6-7

Race 4: (1) PRINCESS KOKACHIN has the advantage over her two main rivals of having raced over this Charles Town surface within the past six months; she also makes her first start for a trainer hitting at 26% with first time starters for the barn. (3) IN SPEIGHT OF SARA comes in Charles Town off of a tough race at Hawthorne nearly 18 months ago; she moves into a barn with previous success off of long layoffs like this though and she should be in with a chance here. (5) ENGLISH HEIRESS is most certainly the class of the field- the only knocks to her is that she also comes off of a long layoff and is not on her preferred surface here tonight.   

Picks: 1-3-5

Race 5: (5) THAT’S HISTORY has been disappointing lately, but has a lot of strong back class and could very well be the one setting the early pace here- could be dangerous at a price. (4) TAPTAPTAP makes a significant drop in class that should help his chances here, but he starts for a barn hitting at only 7% off the layoff. (3) FLUENT IN SARCASM has been in very good form since switching barns a few starts back and will look to keep the momentum rolling here tonight. 

Picks: 5-4-3

 

Race 6: (7) ONE MORE FACTOR comes out of a productive maiden race at Pimlico and will look to take a step here against a relatively soft field here tonight. (3) SUBJECT TO CHANGE and (4) HEART AND HOPE are both live runners on debut. While the later has a slightly stronger work tab, the former has connections with more success with first timers in the past, which gives him the slight edge here. 

Picks: 7-3-4

Race 7: (5) STRETCH THE TRUTH is quicker than this field out of the gate and should set a reasonable pace on the front end. The Charles Town configuration and this distance should fit this runner perfectly, making him the most likely winner of the night. (4) KUKULKAN came into Charles Town with an 0-for-27 lifetime record, but he has found new life at Charles Town and should be competitive again here as he has been in all four tries here so far. (7) COMMMAND THE CAT is a super consistent type that has hit the board in 14-of-18 lifetime starts and should be right in the mix again here.

Picks: 5-4-7

Race 8: (2) BLUE COLLAR BOY is a lightly raced three year old that should have every chance to take a big step forward here on the stretch out and should appreciate the class relief. (6) STRUDE ON BY continues to earn high speed figures for his efforts, but he hasn’t really been that close to breaking his maiden yet- tough to take here at too short of a price. (1) ITSAHATTATACK draws nicely and has an experience edge over this bunch that could help him here.

Picks: 2-6-1

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