There’s a nine race Thursday afternoon card at Keeneland, where the featured race is a stakes quality allowance for older horses sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.First post this afternoon will be the usual 1:00 PM (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 1 | 1,3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 8 | 8,1 | 5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 8 | 8,3,9 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1,7 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 4 | 4,3 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 8 | 5 | 5,4 | 1 | DBL | |
| 9 | 7 | 7,2 | 6 |
Race 1:
We’ll get the ball rolling with a beaten $30K claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course. Zafyre (#4) is a three year old filly that has won three times, whereas the other six runners qualified for this race under the N3L condition. Revel Toast (#1) and Mom’s Cheesecake (#3) are the two I want to use in this race. Revel Toast made her first start after a five month break in a $50K beaten claiming race at Churchill in her latest try. She ran against a next out winner while running with a waiver, protecting her from being claimed. SHe was 4th that day after showing some early interest before backing out. She drops in class and is running with a tag for only the second time in her career. She ran well at seven furlongs against a better group at Churchill last fall and I think she’ll be more fit for a race at that distance today. I thought Mom’s Cheesecake had a live look in the first race of the meet, especially when getting back on one of her favorite courses. Her effort that afternoon was almost too bad to be believed, as she never ran a step in that starter allowance race. Lacy Pierce regroups and brings her back in a claiming race at the end of the meet, while trying to right the ship with this four year daughter of Gormley. I think it’s fair to expect a better effort out of her.
Race 2:
Eight runners are entered in this $150K maiden claiming race for two year olds going 6 ½ furlongs. Big Star Bound (#4) makes a lot of sense in this race. He debuts for Wesley Ward, who has his hands all over this one’s pedigree. He is sired by Golden Pal, who was a two time Breeders’ Cup winner in turf sprint races in his career. Horses that he’s sired are 5-21 when debuting in dirt sprints. Ward has saddled two of these horses and both were winners. His dam was unraced, but she was foaled by Judy the Beauty who was a Grade 1 winning sprinter who was also trained by Ward. He blew out a 46:4 bullet work here a few weeks ago. It’s not uncommon for Ward to put a work like that into a horse and then not have them work for a few works, which was the case here. Functional (#2) is worth a look in this race when making his second career start. He showed some brief speed before fading on debut. Borax (#5), who is a shorter price, was only two lengths better than him. Ron Moquett’s horses tend to get better with races under their belt, and the dam has produced some capable runners. Seeing as how he only sold for $70K earlier this year, I can assume he might not be up to the caliber of runners as his half-siblings, but at this level, he doesn’t need to be.
Race 3:
Three year olds and up will go 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt in this $20K maiden claiming race. Stakeholder (#8) ran some solid races in the spring, including a second place finish on this course in an open maiden special weight race. He was 5th in a loaded maiden race on Derby Day at long odds and he was sidelined for the bulk of the summer after that race. He came back in a suspiciously low $20K maiden claiming race at Churchill where he was flat. Jordan Blair claimed him that day and brings him back to a two turn race. His two worst races in his career came in one turn races, so I do think he’s worth upgrading at longer distances in this race. I expect a more competitive effort from him in this spot today. My King Air (#1) has had some trouble staying sound, he looked pretty sharp when making his first start off the Joe Sharp claim last out. He was also making his first start in 11 months that day, so I get him showing up in a 6 ½ furlong race at this level. He closed well to be second that day and now he stretches out to two turns for the second time in his career. His only other try at two turns was not great, but that was also the race before he went away. I think he’s playable in this race. The heavy favorite is Get Them Roses (#5), who was just okay when dropping in for a tag for the first time earlier in the meet. He stalked the pace, but when the winner pulled away, he was left battling for the balance that day. He takes another drop, which isn’t terribly encouraging. He’s never really been close to winning a race either, so my expectations for him will be tempered in this one. I see him as a deeper saver here.
Race 4:
Nine two year olds are entered in this restricted maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. On 9/16, there were two divisions of a six furlong race at this condition at Churchill and six of the nine entered in this two turn race are coming out of those races. A week later, the heavy favorite, Gut Reaction (#9) debuted in a one turn mile race at Churchill at the same restricted maiden special weight level. He went to the front in that race and was collared at the top of the stretch. He dug in to finish second that day and he was four lengths better than When I Go, who came back to score in a seven furlong race at this level here last week. He makes a ton of sense in this race, but the dam was never better than her first start, so I will be a little cautious with him in this race, especially at such a short number. I’ll try Changing Force (#8) on top, in hopes that he’ll sit a little better trip in his second start. He was wide throughout when breaking from the 12 hole in the first division of the maiden race at Churchill last month. Dale Romans has strong numbers with second time starters. I’ll also use Sunfyre (#3) who started to pick things up in the late stages of his maiden try. Ian Wilkes adds blinkers for the first time, and this one has four solid works since that debut race, which should have him more fit for this race. His dam is probably the most productive producer in the group.
Race 5:
The first of two turf races on the card is a N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 ⅛ miles. With only two races carded for the turf, there will be no All-Turf Pick-3 wager this afternoon. There’s plenty of ways to go in this race, so I am looking for some value. Night of Rose (#1) is a live longshot for Paulo Lobo here. She came to the states after winning three Group 1 races in Brazil in 12 career starts there. Lobo brought her to Keeneland in the spring where she ran a big race at this level to just miss. She ran okay at Colonial against a good field and then tried stakes company in the Ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs, she she fell apart late. She’s making her third start off the layoff and she’s back at nine furlongs at Keeneland, Walter Rodriguez gets the assignment today. The North American debut for Unwavering Monarch (#7) at Laurel was impressive. She was lingering near back, 15 lengths off the pace at the first call. She advanced steadily and came over the top, widest of all, with a strong and sustained bid to win going away. This is definitely a class test and she’ll need to improve off of that effort, but she’s a promising filly for Team Valor that certainly seemed to like North American racing. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Just Aloof (#10) who scratched out of a race at this condition last week. She was the 6-5 morning line favorite in that race and she’s starting at 7-2 in this spot, which speaks to the depth of this field. She ran a very good race to 4th, beaten less than a length in the Grade 2 Appalachian on this course in the spring. She struggled in her two starts at the Spa this summer, both of those races coming in graded stakes company. She drops in class to allowance company, where she’ll get to run with Lasix for the first time. She is getting class relief, but not a ton here.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight route for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Lucerra (#4) is a full sister to Taj Mahal, who won his first three starts, including wins in the Miracle Wood and the Frederico Tesio Stakes. The two foals from this dam prior to this filly were both better at two turns. She ran okay in both sprint races to start her career at Saratoga. She was given a little time off, but she’s been working well down at Ellis for Riley Mott. I think we’ll see a better effort from her in her third career try today. The expectations have been high for Getaway Girl (#3) from the jump. She cost $875K last summer as a yearling. She debuted in the slop at Churchill last month and she was gaining late to get into second that day. DeVaux has strong numbers with second time starters and seeing as how this filly is sired by Gun Runner out of a Justify mare, I’d think she’s going to be better at two turns. Ken McPeek trains two runners in here, but I’m more interested in his first time starter, Circe (#7). She’s been working in the AM and seeing Jose Ortiz take the mount is a positive signal as they’ve teamed up to win 25% of their races here at Keeneland. The dam was stakes placed on the turf and she was a winner in her second career start. She’s part of the MyRacehorse portfolio, so there’s a good chance that she’s going to be overbet. However, she looks like a runner.
Race 7:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race on the dirt. I think Maria Louise (#2) is going to be very tough to beat in this race. I doubt we’ll get her 4-1 morning line figure, but I’d love her at that number, while making her second start against winners. Her dam, Stopchargingmaria, win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2015 on this course. For as dynamic as she was on the track, her offspring has not quite lived up to expectations thus far. However, this daughter of Gun Runner paired her first two Beyer Figures when racing in one mile races at Saratoga. I think the added distance will be to her liking in this race. Pletcher has only started six horses at this meet, but he’s bringing horses to town that he thinks can win races. American Pearl (#1) is the alternative for me. She’s been favored in her first three starts and she’s run well each time. However, she only has one win to show for her troubles. She’s never competed at two turns and this will be the first time doing so, while also making her first start since January. I trust Walden will have her ready.
Race 8:
The featured allowance drew a very competitive field going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I landed on Script (#5) in this race. He started twice at last year’s fall meet and ran big races in both starts. He went off form and has been battling some minor injuries throughout the year. He ran well, despite being buried on the rail in the Grade 2 Woodford last month. Joe Shiesty is in great form and he was the winner that day. He breaks from the middle of the starting gate and looks like he’s found his best form. He’ll be making his third start of his current form cycle and I think he fits nicely with this group today. There are a few runners that might be a bit past their prime. Master of Light (#4) has two big efforts in a row, including a handy score in his first career turf sprint at Ellis. That was not a bad field that he beat at Ellis in his last time out. He’s undefeated in his three one turn races, in his six race career. I think it’s fair to say that we’ll be seeing him in sprints from here on out. On deeper tickets, the former Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner, Nobals (#1) shows up here. He’s a seven year old gelding that isn’t quite as quick as he once was. However, he still has won 13 of 35 career starts and has banked close to two million dollars on the track. He also tries his best though and he’ll be trying to get Larry Rivelli off the duck for this current meet.
Race 9:
We had two year old colts and geldings routing on the dirt in a restricted maiden special weight race earlier on the card and we’ll close things out today with the filly version of that race. Kihei Kiana (#7) is the pick for me in the nightcap. She’s making her 4th career start and her first at two turns. She has shown some gradual improvement in her first three races. She was a well-beaten third behind Manuka Honey in her debut. That fill remains unbeaten, scoring the Ellis Park Debutante and the Grade 3 Pocahontas in her last two tries. This filly tried the turf in her second start where she was widest of all when they spun for home. She came back in a one turn mile race at Churchill where she was forced out of her spot while jockeying for position in the chute. She made up some ground through traffic to finish 4th in a race where the early tempo was hot. I liked the middle move last out and I think the more relaxed tempo of a two turn race should be more her speed. Joe Sharp sends out two runners in this race, but I think Spur of the Moment (#2) is the one I want. She ran twice on the turf at Colonial Downs in sprint races to start her career. She was competitive in those races. Cody Durr, who is the owner who bought this Girvin filly for $1K last fall, turned over the training responsibilities to Sharp. She took a step forward in a sprint at this level on this course two weeks ago. She comes back to go two turns for the first time. Horses sired by Girvin are winning 14% of the time in their first route races on the dirt. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Silk Street (#6) for Sarah Shaffer. She ran okay at this level in a sprint last month at Churchill. She’s sired by Upstart, whose horses are winning 21% of the time in their first dirt route races. The dam had another foal who won in her first try in a two turn race. I see a path for improvement with her.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
