Little something different from me as you can find plenty of analysis out there for this weekend, so thought I would share some information I gathered previously that I have in notes or workout analysis for the card.
I may tip my hand on a horse I like throughout but that is not the purpose and just because I do not mention a horse does not mean I do not like their chances but there is no sense in stating the obvious.
DISCLAIMER – Just because I mention some information about a particular horse does not mean I think this horse is going to win. This is information that is not going to be staring you in the face on your past performances. What you do with that information is up to you!!
Race 1
The 6 Thoughtful for Brad Cox is the horse to beat but there are some others that I would not totally dismiss.
3 Penny Royal will likely be over bet being a full sibling to Good Magic, I thought her works looked good but nothing overly impressive I likely will fade her.
4 Sundance Feature’s works prior to debut came at Churchill and she did everything right so surface is no issue.
9 Sally O’Malley is the filly I think will be overlooked in this spot. Prior to debut she impressed me sitting off work mates then pulling clear going out nicely in a couple works and had a couple sharp gate drills as well. I would not dismiss her based off her debut.
Race 2 is a 3 Horse race for myself.
1 Weigh the Risks was working on the dirt at Saratoga last summer with Ways and Means so the dirt is no worry to me.
11 Prior to debut Sedona was 2nd best to Kathleen O on a couple occasions but she held her own.
Both of these fillies will have their hands full trying to beat the 9 Sidamara.
Race 3 – Nothing Note Worthy – 8 Arthur’s Ride will be a deserving short price favorite and in my opinion is the 2nd most likely winner of day.
Race 4 – Nothing Note Worthy I thought this was a tough race that I want to survive in multi’s by any means necessary.
Race 5 – Nothing Note Worthy but this is the race I am most excited to watch of the entire card. I will be trying to take on Idiomatic with Xigera. When Xigera won here last September I thought for certain they would send her to the Breeders Cup and I would have went all in on her with my BCBC entry, but instead connections elected for the Mother Goose followed by the Fall City. She has a tough task versus Idiomatic who not only is a monster but training possibly the best she ever has but if Xigera comes back to her fall form she has a big shot to take down the champ.
Race 6 nothing ground breaking from me other than everyone under the sun has mentioned Ova Charged and her big figures. Not a race I am overly excited to wager on. Being completely honest I am a bit disappointed in the quality of the race.
Race 7 I am using First Mission, Tapit Trice and Trademark and excited to see the outcome. The only nugget I have is for vertical wagers, do not toss Steal My Sunshine from hitting the board. Those 8.5 furlong races at Gulfstream are on the short stretch finish which is totally different than Churchill where he will get a long stretch to work with.
Race 8 I got nothing ….. Looking at this race I feel like a deer in headlights.
Race 9 I think Denim and Pearls is the most likely winner on the card! Nothing hidden that I found other than if you are a fan of THE RANCH on Netflix you got to be rooting for Tanya Showers just a bit.
Race 10 I think this race has many possible outcomes and if you are spreading I recommend do not toss these 2 runners aside.
8 Kalispera is a super talented filly. Prior to shipping to US she ran in Group 2 and 3 races as a maiden and when she arrived in Lynch’s barn they were immediately impressed. I am not sure what happened last time at Gulfstream but what price would she be here if she had won that day?
Ironically Jose gets off Kalispera to ride the other horse I want to mention.
13 Dancing N Dixie ran a nice race in the Ginger Brew when sitting behind traffic and having no chance. Then goes to Tampa and made up a ton of ground while Maldonado nearly fell off her in the stretch, I hit a home run that day in verticals and if she would have got up it would have been an epic score.
Last time at Keeneland once again she came late making up a ton of ground, look for Jose to have her moving sooner today and if gets a good trip this filly is dangerous.
Race 11 In the Kentucky Oaks unfortunately I do think Thorpedo Anna is going to be a much shorter price than we anticipate and although she is not a single for me I really do like this filly. I have been a big fan of JUST FYI since seeing a couple works prior to debut, but Anna has won me over. I also have a hometown rooting interest as a friend mine’s father owns a portion of this filly and connections are extremely confident in this fillies ability.
Her lone defeat came in the Golden Rod which was her 3rd race in 30 days! The start of that race she hung in the gate just a brief moment and a good chance she strained a muscle or something of that nature. She did not finish that day like she has in her 3 wins.
Race 12 If you are a fan of fast horses you might want to stick around after the Oaks.
1 Tipsy Tammy adds blinkers and the work I saw with blinkers she looked like a different filly. She worked with Princess Madison who runs in the next race Tipsy Tammy went quick early and both finished well with both galloping out well. The main two contenders are going to take a lot of money but Tammy likely will be overlooked and one I will not leave off tickets.
7 Tweetster and 11 Almostgone Rocket were both very impressive on debut and I expect to put on a show coming for home.
Race 13 The work with Tipsy Tammy I mention above screamed that Princess Madison wants to go longer. If Tammy runs well in the 12th , then I will like Princess Madison that much more.
Good luck Everyone
