By Eric Solomon
This Coal Front colt has been the feel-good story of the Derby Prep, catapulting Lonnie Briley, a modest Louisiana based trainer, into the national spotlight. He qualified for this race by virtue of winning the Grade 2 Rebel at the end of February. He was unbeaten in his first five starts on the dirt before finishing third behind Sandman and Publisher in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at the end of March.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
He debuted in an off the turf maiden special weight race in the slop at Evangeline Downs this summer, coming from off the pace to win going away. After a pair of off the board finishes on the turf against solid fields in Kentucky, we went on a four-race stakes winning streak in races on the dirt. He won the Jean Laffite Futurity at Delta and the Springboard Mile at Remington. Both were nice efforts, but it wasn’t until he won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn that people started noticing this son of Coal Front. Juan Vargas put him on the lead in a slow-paced race, something that this horse had not done in the past. He took them all the way to score that day. Vargas gave him another picture perfect ride in the Grade 2 Rebel, getting the jump on the closers after a strong pace developed up front. He was able to pass Madaket Road and hold off Sandman and Publisher that day. However, the latter two got their revenge when Vargas tried to make the same move in the nine furlong Arkansas Derby. He faded late that day to finish 3rd, beaten seven lengths.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Coal Front
- Dam & Damsire: Wolfblade (by Midshipman)
- Owner: Norman Stables LLC
- Trainer: Lonnie Briley
- Jockey: Juan Vargas
Coal Front won graded stakes between 6 and 8 ½ furlongs in his racing career. He was sired by Stay Thirsty, who was the winner of the Travers Stakes at 10 furlongs and was the runner up in the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes back in 2011. Horses sired by Coal Front are winning 11% of the time in dirt route races, so they are capable of getting longer distances, The dam hasn’t produced much outside of this runner, hence the $70K price tag at auction. While he didn’t need to win the Arkansas Derby, I would’ve liked to have seen him show more fight against Sandman that day. That lack of energy makes me wonder how far he really wants to go.
This will be the first Derby for both Lonnie Briley and Juan Vargas. While that is always a concern, we’ve seen first timers win here. John Servis and Stewart Elliott found the Winner’s Circle with Smarty Jones in 2003. Briley suggested this week that Vargas might have moved a shade too soon in the Arkansas Derby, however, I don’t think that offers a valid excuse for not being able to run with Sandman at longer distances. Briley has been training horses since 1991 while holding some other jobs in between. This is by far the best horse that he’s ever trained.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Arkansas Derby
- Finish Position: 3rd out of 9
- Final Time: 1:50.08
- Beyer Speed Figure: 88
The pace in that race was hot and heavy, as neither Speed King or Cornucopian were willing to give an inch early on. He waited in the wings, much like he did when four horses were battling for the front end in the Rebel a month earlier. Vargas timed the ride to try to get the jump on Sandman as the front-runners started to cave in, however Jose Ortiz timed the ride a little better for Sandman. He swallowed up Coal Battle at the top of the stretch, pulling clear while holding the maiden, Publisher, at bay. While he didn’t need the Derby Points, he faded to be third, beaten seven lengths. The slight regression at the longer distance was disappointing, but as a son of Coal Front, it probably could have been expected.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Juan Vargas has a great feel for this horse and he seems to have a knack for getting him in a perfect spot, regardless of the pace scenario. For a young jockey that hasn’t had a lot of recognition, his rides on this colt in big spots have been exceptional. While the Derby is a different animal, I don’t think the moment will be too big for the rider. The horse can definitely adapt to whatever is going on around him and he’s never run a bad race on the dirt.
Concerns: When you get to the Derby, class and pedigree start to matter more, and while I love what we’ve seen from Coal Front as a sire in general, I expect this runner to struggle more at 10 furlongs. He had every chance to win the Arkansas Derby and he was no match for Sandman. He was a solid winner at 1 1/16 miles, but I’m not sure how much longer he wants to go at this level of competition.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Right now, he’s hovering around 30-1 in most of the markets that I’ve seen, and when considering the competition, that feels like a fair number. He’s the kind of horse that is going to get a fair amount of attention because he’s one of the better stories in the Derby. If his odds float down below that 30-1 mark on Derby Day, I’m probably going to look elsewhere. He’s going to need a lot of things to go his way to win the Derby, so it’s fair to demand decent value.
Conclusion
Last year, we saw Mystik Dan finish third in the Arkansas Derby and then go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Coal Battle is going to try to do the same thing this year. There are some similarities to the two runners as both won a lesser prep race at Oaklawn before struggling in their final prep. Both horses appeared to have some distance limitations as well, at least from a pedigree standpoint. Everything is going to have to go his way in order to beat 19 of his contemporaries in the Derby. That was pretty much how the Derby unfolded last year for Mystik Dan, so there is hope. However, if everyone runs their race on paper, I think he’s going to be up against it. I’m not crazy about Sandman’s prospects in the Derby and that one beat him by 7 lengths last time out. As longshots go, there’s enough to like, but if we’re not close to 30-1, I’m not sure we’re getting enough value to make plating him worthwhile.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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