After the whirlwind of last Sunday’s 12-race Colonial Festival of Racing, we’re back to your more run-of-the-mill Colonial card this Saturday. While there’s no stakes races this week, the racing contains full fields and very competitive races. I also joined Mike Pribozie on this week’s In the Money Media Players’ Podcast to break down the entire 12% takeout Late Pick Five. It’s a difficult sequence, but I’m hoping to survive and advance to get to my creative opinions in the last two.
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Selections
- Race 1: 3-2-5-6
- Race 2: 1-8-4-3
- Race 3: 2-6-8-3
- Race 4: 3-2-8-7
- Race 5: 7-2-9-3
- Race 6: 11-9-3-5
- Race 7: 2-7-3-8
- Race 8: 2-4-3-5
- Race 9: 5-10-8-11
Colonial Downs Race 5: Mr Scatter (#7) at 6-1 or higher
It looks like a lot of the play in this N2L claimer will be going through a couple horses I’m willing to side against in Sendero (#1) and Border War (#3). Of the two I slightly prefer the latter who broke his maiden over this course and distance earlier this meet. Sendero comes from dangerous connections with Rivelli as the conditioner, but I question the form he’s in this year. I liked Whiting Field (#2) when he was part of a similar field in a race that was canceled two weeks ago. I still think this Crichton trainee is capable of wiring this field, but there’s more speed to deal with in this spot. Some of which will come from Big Big Star (#9) who ships in for Keri Brion after getting caught in a fast pace in an event at Saratoga where closers dominated. I’ll use both of those two but made my top pick Mr Scatter (#7). This son of Goldencents gets to the turf for the first time where his sire produces 13% winners. He’s also out of a dam that’s produced a couple to win that tried the turf and the Nacho Correas barn has been bringing the right horse to Colonial this meet. I think he’ll get enought pace to close into and Karamanos hops aboard.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Echo Lane (#2) at 7-2 or higher
A bunch of the contenders in this starter allowance look very similar as many are older hard-knocking types in the back half of their career. Of those I think Space Launch (#3) will go off favored coming out of that tough allowance at Saratoga. However, he is a hard horse to trust and doesn’t have too big an edge on figures. I feel similarly about other contenders like Hot Blooded (#4), The Addison Pour (#5) and Possiblemente (#6) with the first of those the one I’m most likely to upgrade given my trust in Maker. However, this race is playable for me due to the presence of Echo Lane (#2) who I view as the fresh face in a race crying out for one. Contrary to the other contenders, this 3YO still possesses some upside and I feel like he has some excuses for his recent efforts. After two nice wins at Gulfstream, he caught an absolute bog of a turf course in a stakes at Pimlico on Preakness weekend and then was too far behind a slow pace in an off-the-turf race over the synthetic last out. I think Trevor McCarthy can give this guy his patented patient turf ride and get the job done over the wily veterans.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Gift Exchange (#5) at 7-2 or higher & Locomotive (#10) at 6-1 or higher
Life was made easier for this trip handicapper by the fact that most of the major contenders are exiting the same race on July 26th. The problem is that I didn’t like that race as a whole with so many runners bunched up coming across the finish line. Overspent (#9) is the one most will default to when looking for an alternative, but he’ll get bet off dirt races and I’m not convinced he’ll love the surface switch. I like Gift Exchange (#5) in this spot and I feel like this drop in class will do the trick. He’s put himself in position in both his turf sprint starts, but lacked the needed punch in the lane to get the job done against maiden special weight company. Trombetta also fits this charge with blinkers for the first time in this spot and has great numbers with that move. Over the last five years the barn is 9/38 (24%, $2.60 ROI) adding blinks for the first time on the grass. However, in a first for this blog this meet I must highlight two runners in the same race and that’s because I’m intrigued by first-time starter Locomotive (#10). I can’t say I’m familiar with this trainer as Djuric has only sent out one runner over the last five years. What’s wild though is that was also a first-time starter who was ridden by today’s jockey, Jevian Toledo, and won the race at 10-1. There’s not much there on pedigree and workouts, but it’s interesting this runner attracts one of the leading riders at the meet and I just can’t take the chance history repeats itself.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 140-45-27-20 (32%, $1.93); Featured Horses: 41-9-7-7 (22%, $2.37)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 70-21-12-9 (30%, $2.48); Featured Horses: 25-6-4-5 (24%, $3.14)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 50%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 4%
