We’re in the home stretch of the Colonial meet with just seven racing days remaining. Ironically enough, that’s the same number of days for the entire meet at Kentucky Downs which I am also covering for the In The Money Media Network. You can check out my analysis for that other turf-racing focused track here.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-8-3-1
- Race 2: 1-6-7-4
- Race 3: 6-2-8-4
- Race 4: 1-2-3-7
- Race 5: 3-10-5-7
- Race 6: 3-1-5-7
- Race 7: 5-4-6-1
- Race 8: 1-6-2-8
- Race 9: 5-9-2-12
Colonial Downs Race 3: Tempest (#6) at 5-2 or higher
I’m not enthralled with the short prices on the morning line in this spot. Agent Kelly (#1) and Voy Y Vengo (#4) both come out of a race here twelve days ago, but we’re easily dispatched by a runaway winner. Of the two, I prefer the latter who has more tactical speed, but went looking for other options. I like Tempest (#6) quite a bit in this spot as this colt tries turf for the first time. He’s by Twirling Candy (10% with turf sprinters) out of a dam who ran high 70’s Beyers turf sprinting. He’s a half brother to the speedy That’s Right, a turf sprinter who has banked nearly 400k on the grass. Furthermore, when the Nixon barn brings horses to Colonial it means business posting a record of 6/17 (35%, $3.73 ROI). The colt has already crossed the wire first in a race by over four lengths but was subsequently DQ’ed. Since I’m against the favorites, I’m going to try to link up my top pick with a couple longshots. Moonflyer (#2) might get the right setup this afternoon with some speed signed on and he had trouble in a race at Monmouth that might’ve been tougher than this. The money Tap Your Heart (#8) took last time was notable before he tired after being a part of a quick pace. He could get a different trip today with the outside draw.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Baby Blocks (#5) at 5-1 or higher
My idea in the nightcap is to play against the morning line favorites as I don’t trust White Heat (#7) or Chalice (#12) in this spot. The former broke his maiden in one of the weakest field of the meet and while she ran better last time, it’s not like I want a short price in this full field. Chalice actually dusted White Heat when breaking her maiden two back but was disappointing in the first try vs winners at even money. I view Call the Question (#9) as clearly the horse to beat as she ran well last time despite losing all chance at the start. I just worry she might take too much money off that trouble and the inflated 9-2 morning line. My top pick Baby Blocks (#5) comes out of that same race and on paper had what appears to be an easier trip. However, I didn’t like that Trevor McCarthy never got this filly comfortable or out in the clear in the stretch. She has some turf sprint races for her previous connections that would beat this field and I imagine most bettors will give up on her after the seventh place finish last time.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 176-51-35-25 (29%, $1.75); Featured Horses: 51-10-8-8 (20%, $2.21)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 96-23-17-13 (24%, $2.08); Featured Horses: 35-7-5-6 (20%, $2.69)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 3%
2 nice calls there, thank you