Today’s twilight card loses a bit of that daylight as the races have been delayed by one hour to 5:30pm due to the heat wave in Central Virginia and across the east coast. Colonial has lights that illuminate the turf course, but none for the dirt, so that’s a part of the reason why the main track events occur early on the Friday card.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-5-7-4
- Race 2: 7-5-2-1
- Race 3: 3-2-5-7
- Race 4: 1-2-6-3
- Race 5: 5-7-4-1
- Race 6: 3-2-7-4
- Race 7: 2-4-1-5
- Race 8: 1-5-2-4
- Race 9: 5-6-10-1
Colonial Downs Race 5: Mollie Tapper (#5) at 5-1 or higher
I had to do a double-take to make sure I was reading the conditions of this race correctly because while they are going 8 furlongs here, most of the contenders are coming out of sprint efforts. That is the case with Lady Ensign (#7) who figures to be a heavy favorite in this spot based on her recent figures and form. Country Life and Trombetta are connections who like to win at Colonial, so being offered for a tag doesn’t concern me, but not sure I want a short price on this filly going long for the first time. Princess Lucia (#4) is also stretching out to a route for the first time, but has the pedigree and scope to appreciate that change. She seems to just be getting going at the end of her 5.5f efforts and with her sire Honor Code and damsire Silver Charm, I imagine the longer the better. My top pick is also trying a turf route for the first time and that’s Molly Tapper (#5). While Princess Lucia is stepping up in class, Mollie Tapper gets some class relief after facing some formidable sprinters in Mystic Seaport and Chambeau. I think jockey Ruben Silvera has a chance to get aggressive with her early and take the race to the favorite who has often found one or two better than her on the day.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Love Music (#3) at 7-5 or higher
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite in the 6th race and will center most of my pick five play around getting Love Music (#3) home in this 2YO MSW sprinting on the grass. She’s by Maclean’s Music who wins with 16% of his 2YO FTS and 15% of his turf sprinters with both those marks being higher than average. She’s the first foal to race out of Love Beach who actually broke her maiden at first asking here at Colonial back in 2019. The Stidham barn wins with 23% of its 2YO debut runners sprinting on grass, but with a negative ROI. To me that means they win when they get bet, but don’t otherwise and I anticipate this filly taking a ton of tote action. Many of the other first-time starters come from barns that have negative numbers with that move, so I’d try and link my top pick up with horses that have experience. American Select (#2) and Cavalla (#7) both exit the same 7/13 maiden race that was conducted over the main track. I wish they had a touch more of turf pedigree on the sire side, but American Select is out of a Danehill Dancer mare and Cavalla’s dam ran primarily on turf and synthetic and produced Oceanic who has become a graded stakes quality turf sprinter.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Magic Token (#7) at 6-1 or higher
I’m going to play this finale as a potential pace meltdown as I foresee multiple contenders wanting to get to the front. Steam Knot (#1) is forced to go forward a bit from the inside draw and I imagine Incisive Kitten (#8) will try to utilize her speed to clear. Even a horse like Biscuit (#3) could be sent away from there and heat up this pace. The Splendid One (#10) could get a nice stalking position behind the speeds if jockey Trevor McCarthy rides her as a stalk and pounce option. She’s 0/17 in her career, but all those starts were on the NYRA circuit and now she finds a nice VA-Restricted maiden claiming group down here. The projected race flow sets up perfectly for Audibly (#6) who has proven to do her best running in the lane. I like the pairing with jockey Horatio Karamanos who knows this turf course so well and these connections point to this meet. I’m using her prominently in my play, but made a different filly the top pick. Magic Token (#7) has the looks of a filly whose form is completely dirtied up. She was well-beaten in her two turf attempts, but didn’t have the most comfortable trips either day and that was against open MSW company at Woodbine making this a much easier spot. Her form is further darkened by to dismal efforts on dirt, but I view turf as her preferred surface and the Schoenthal barn can win with a longshot.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 80-28-16-14 (35%, $2.12); Featured Horses: 24-6-5-6 (25%, $2.64)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 35-12-9-5 (34%, $3.16); Featured Horses: 14-4-4-4 (29%, $3.53)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 16%; X’s: 4%
