The penultimate Friday card for Colonial Downs in 2024 is on tap and that means only two more times to view racing under the lights at the central Virginia track.
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Selections
- Race 1: 1-3-5-6
- Race 2: 5-9-8-6
- Race 3: 10-3-2-7
- Race 4: 6-10-8-7
- Race 5: 2-9-4-5
- Race 6: 4-3-8-10
- Race 7: 7-9-4-6
- Race 8: 11-7-2-12
- Race 9: 12-6-7-11
Colonial Downs Race 3: Honestly (#10) at 7-1 or higher
There’s a couple shorter prices on the morning line I need no part of as Wickedrevolution (#1) is a debut runner for a trainer that doesn’t win with them and Orquida Real (#9) comes from connections that have struggled this meet. I view Slanderous (#7) as the horse to beat as she exits an open maiden special weight where she was leading up until near the wire and now finds a softer spot. However, I found a few clever angles on horses that I think will be square prices. Mindful Angel (#2) is a second time starter who gets to her intended surface for the first time, but has some foundation with that dirt debut. It’s a similar story for Respect the Law (#3) who I think will appreciate the switch to turf as a daughter of freshman sire Tiz the Law. However, I made Honestly (#10) my top pick as she also gets to grass for the first time. Keri Brion thought highly enough of this filly to ship to Saratoga for a restricted MSW where she did no running. She was also disappointing in her first start for a tag, but both those races came over the main track and maybe this Goldencents filly will finally capitalize on her talent on the green. I like that Xavier Perez is named to ride and find the most recent work over Fair Hill’s synthetic track noteworthy.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Big Big Star (#6) at 9-2 or higher
I think the key form line to analyze coming into this race is the fifth race on 8/17 that a couple of these come out of. Sendero (#8) will take a good amount of money for the high percentage Rivelli barn, but failed to make an impact last time despite a favorable pace setup. My top pick Big Big Star (#6) was the horse that set the table for closers in that spot going too fast early and tiring to last. I think new jock Victor Carrasco can ration his speed a bit better this time and lead them on a merry chase. One longer priced horse I want to keep onside is Graft (#10). It’s usually a tough task to get the job done first time against winners, but this gelding was super impressive breaking his maiden last time and could win right back. Entrants from the Nagle barn are ones I always take second look at as this owner/trainer combo has a record of 12/54 (22%, $2.15 ROI) at Colonial in the last 5 years.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Blue Ocean Rave (#2) at 6-1 or higher
Established form is tough to come by in this 30k maiden claimer sprinting on the grass. I nearly made Freddy Boy (#9) the top pick based on a stat for the Fausto Gutierrez I found last week. The barn is 3/12 (25%, $3.75 ROI) with juveniles going dirt to turf. Plus this colt is a son of G1-Summer Stakes winner Fog of War out of an Irish-bred dam. I like a couple second-time starters with Blue Ocean Rave (#2) the top pick. This colt drops sharply in class after a last place finish in a salty Ellis MSW going 7f on the dirt. I think the switch to turf and cutback in distance will do this Midnight Lute colt wonders. He’s also out of a dam that won twice on grass and the Keith Desormeaux barn is 6/25 (24%, $3.82 ROI) with juveniles going dirt-to-turf in maiden races. The other one worth throwing in is Chill Boss (#4) who switches to turf after stopping abruptly in a maiden special weight at Parx. This colt is by solid turf sprint sire Street Boss and while the Schoenthal barn doesn’t have the best numbers with the dirt-to-turf move, it can certainly win at a price at this meet.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Bomboloni (#11) at 8-1 or higher
At first I wasn’t going to preview this race as it looks like the morning line favorites are all formidable. B Determined (#7) ran a race last time that would drown this field, but was 30-1 that day and now is likely to go off favored. Speak Unity (#2) takes a subtle yet significant drop in class for the Russells as Brittany’s barn battles for the trainers’ title. Valiant Vinny (#12) might be the proverbial speed-of-the-speed which is always dangerous in turf sprints, but has to prove he’s the same horse as last fall. All of these horses can win and would be a part of my multi-race plays, but I have to give Bomboloni (#11) a shot here. This colt was claimed out of his last start by Stevica Djuric who has only started two horses in the last five years. The most recent one was a first-time starter named Locomotive who nearly won at this meet at 15-1. The other one was Bomboloni himself for his debut race back in the summer of 2022 when he won a $12.5k maiden claimer at Laurel at 10-1. This horse has more than a few turf sprint races on his page from the last couple years that could compete in this spot. It appears this barn has got some solid works at the little known Braeburn Training Center and might have been pointing to this spot to pull one over.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 185-55-36-26 (30%, $1.82); Featured Horses: 53-12-8-8 (23%, $2.54)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 101-25-18-13 (25%, $2.19); Featured Horses: 37-9-5-6 (24%, $3.14)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 50%; B’s: 30%; C’s: 16%; X’s: 4%
