A familiar group reunites as there’s quite a few Virginia restricted stakes events on the Saturday card. I always enjoy seeing rivalries like these develop and can only hope it turns into what we saw with the NY Bred’s back in the day when Lubash, King Kressa, and Kharafa were always knocking heads. Long prices might be tough to come by as many of the favorites look super formidable, but this could be a good opportunity to hit the Pick 5 for a higher denomination than the $0.50 minimum or take a crack at the Old Dominion 6 if there’s a carryover at play.
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Selections
- Race 1: 3-7-5-4
- Race 2: 7-5-6-1
- Race 3: 8-1-5-4
- Race 4: 2-7-5-1
- Race 5: 2-7-6-5
- Race 6: 6-11-9-4
- Race 7: 1-8-6-10
- Race 8: 2-4-11-9
- Race 9: 5-8-2-3
- Race 10: 8-1-2-7
Colonial Downs Race 1: Enzo (#3) at 7-2 or higher
The likely favorite in this spot, Oskar Martinez (Ire) (#7), is turning back in distance hoping to break through in start number five. He’s flattened out in the lane in his two races this year so maybe the cutback is what he wanted all along. This is just generally a negative betting proposition and the stats for the Delacour barn back that up posting a record of 4/24 (24%, $1.02 ROI) going route-to-sprint on the grass. Many will turn to Contemplation (#1) as the main alternative especially going out for the dangerous jockey/trainer combo of Curtis and Stidham. However, I didn’t see much in his turf debut to suggest he’ll take the necessary step forward to win here. My top pick in this spot is Enzo (#3) and while this new gelding is also cutting back from a route, he’s already proven to be effective at sprints earlier in his career. This Merryman homebred is a half brother to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Caravel and a full brother to Witty who is a SW that’s banked over 300k turf sprinting.
Colonial Downs Race 4: H M Legacy (#2) at 7-2 or higher
I am willing to play against the favorites in this spot. Stratospheric (#1) is listed at 2-1 on the line and drew a nice inside post, but I thought she got a great trip last time. Americandreammaker (#3) and Spendalot (#8) are new faces as the former comes in from California and switches to the Hemingway barn while the latter has moved into Brittany Russell’s care. I don’t think either have run particularly well in their starts to date and view both trainer switches as negatives. The first-time starter in this spot is a little intriguing as the Clement stable will saddle Princess Buttercup (#5). She is by Kitten’s Joy out of Bengala who was an allowance type for these same connections. She’s been training locally and this barn is 18/126 (14%, $2.31 ROI) with horses debuting in turf routes at age 3 or older. My top pick in this spot is H M Legacy (#2) who out-finished the morning line favorite last out and did so with a tougher trip encountering traffic in the lane. This will be another situation to grab a price on a Curtis and Stidham trainee which has proved profitable this meet with the pair posting a record of 10/34 (29%, $2.72 ROI) when teaming up. I also want to use Its Satisfactual (#7) who gets back to turf for Cherie DeVaux. The last time she was seen on the green, she had a nightmare trip at Gulfstream and now has been well prepared for this return.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Determined Kingdom (#5) at 1-1 or higher
I am absolutely not trying to beat the favorite in this spot and view Determined Kingdom (#5) as one of the most likely winners on this card. This gelding has made these VA-Restricted turf sprints into his own personal ATM over the past few seasons and is arguably in the best form of his career. I was really taken with his last race where he finished a close third against open company. He didn’t even have the most comfortable trip that day, so anything close to a repeat of that performance will win comfortably here. Plus, the presence of Whenigettoheaven (#8) might allow us to get a fair number on the top choice as bettors may find this Ramsey trainee coming off back-to-back wins.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 194-58-36-27 (30%, $1.92); Featured Horses: 57-12-8-9 (21%, $2.36)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 108-27-18-14 (25%, $2.35); Featured Horses: 41-9-5-7 (22%, $2.83)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 16%; X’s: 4%
