Rough weather forced the cancellation of the final five races of Friday’s card, but hopefully clearer skies emerge for the Saturday program. A pair of 2YO stakes for VA-Restricted company are on tap with the Keswick and Hickory Tree Stakes kicking off a very competitive late pick five sequence. I hopped on and joined Mike Pribozie as we covered that full compliment of races on this week’s In the Money Media Players’ Podcast. Be sure to check that out as well!
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-4-3-2
- Race 2: 2-4-5=7
- Race 3: 5-4-2-7
- Race 4: 3-9-12-6
- Race 5: 5-4-8-6
- Race 6: 1-12-8-7
- Race 7: 5-3-8-6
- Race 8: 5-4-3-6
- Race 9: 11-5-4-9
Colonial Downs Race 5: Sporting Lady (#5) at 8-5 or higher
Looking forward to seeing what we get in the Keswick Stakes this afternoon. Diakonissa (#4) is the horse to beat off a dominating debut score, but now she has to prove she can reproduce that at a new track and over an extra furlong. The Farrior barn hits at a high percentage, but I’ve always thought of it as more of a West Virginia/Pennsylvania specialist. A trend I’ve noticed at Colonial over the years is that the larger outfits like to poach these stakes races and often win these 2YO events with debut runners. I think that could be the plan with Sporting Lady (#5) who goes out for Cherie DeVaux and Three Diamonds Farm. Though Cherie is known more for her turf, she has surprisingly profitable numbers with 2YO’s on the dirt. The barn is 8/43 (19%, $2.67 ROI) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints. Connections paid $170k for this filly at a 2YO in training sale earlier this year and this daughter of Munnings has been working consistently and forwardly down at Keeneland for her debut. In a race where really any of these unproven commodities have a chance, I’m willing to press my opinion that this filly will prove head and shoulders above the rest.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Conman (#5) at 4-1 or higher
I feel as if there’s a good amount of early speed signed on to this N2X going a flat mile on the Colonial turf with two of the favorites My Sea Cottage (Ire) (#2) and Bring Me A Check (#8) doing their best running on or near the lead. Both could win, but I expect to be underlays given the less than ideal pace dynamics and popular human connections. Initially, I though Otago (#3) would be the logical choice as the main closer in a race that sets up for that move. However, I wasn’t thrilled with any of his races and he usually finds one or two better when racing at this level. I have to bet Conman (#5) in this spot as I feel his form is somewhat dirtied up. Since coming off the layoff this year, he was against the race flow in his return and had a no chance trip in his last. Both of those races came against tougher competition than he meets today. If he can work out a similar trip to the one he parlayed into a win in the Hamilton Stakes at Woodbine last summer, he can get the win here at a fair price.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 84-31-16-14 (37%, $2.18); Featured Horses: 24-6-5-6 (25%, $2.64)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 38-14-9-5 (37%, $3.11); Featured Horses: 14-4-4-4 (29%, $3.53)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 54%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 15%; X’s: 4%
