Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 6/14/26 – By Eric Solomon

The weekend at Monmouth Park wraps up with an eight race card this afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon storms to roll through the area, and while it’s more likely that these storms will develop after the racing day is over, it’s still a situation worth keeping an eye on, especially for those playing multi-race wagers on the back end of the card. The first post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Sunday begins with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile. The rails for the turf course for all four races on the lawn this afternoon will be set at 24 feet. The heavy favorite is Classic Cara (#1) who is a professional maiden that has had 15 chances to win a race. She has come close a few times against significantly better fields in New York, but she has failed to break through. She drops to the lowest level in her career and is facing many horses that don’t appear to be nearly as fast. However, it’s always hard for me to play a horse like this with any real confidence, especially when the return on investment is likely going to be very low in the win pool. She’s an A line play, because I do think this field is pretty weak, but I’m interested in taking Maxpower (#4) as the top pick. I like playing horses that take big steps forward on the grass for the first time and she did that last week when she faded to 4th in a sprint at this level. She’s never gone long before, but I do think the pedigree is there to handle two turns. The distance is a question mark, so I do need the odds disparity to stay close to where they’re at on the morning line (9-2 vs 7-5).

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go a mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming contest. For the most part, this race is evenly matched, but the form for the six runners here is lacking. I landed on Hipatia (#3) in this spot, hoping that we’ll see this mare move forward in her second start off the layoff. Her dirt form last summer in her four year old season was probably good enough to beat this field. She showed improvement from her first start of the season in 2025 to her second start, so I’ll bank on that type of move again here. Bee N Dee (#4) will be the favorite when they open the gates. I don’t love taking short prices on the type of horse, but I also know that Paco Lopez is winning nearly 40% of his races here this season for a reason. While she doesn’t tower over her opposition, you know that she’s not going to lose this race because of a bad ride. 

Race 3:

Five three year old fillies and one four year old filly will go a mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this maiden special weight race. I like the four year old, Tejanita (#4) for Shug McGaughey in this spot. She was stuck facing nice fillies like Clicquot and La Cara early on in her career. She ran a better race when facing softer maiden allowance types at Laurel in the fall .She looked like she started to turn a corner this winter in Florida, but her last start in the slop at Aqueduct was not good. She’s bred to handle two turns, and this will be her first true route race. I think she’s a candidate to rebound here. Ms Sophistication (#5) will be the backup for me, as I’m going to try to beat both of the Chad Brown fillies in this spot. She came undone ,late in her last start when trying two turns for the first time in an off the turf maiden race at Delaware in the slop. I do think that effort will help her in this spot and she has the potential to set a very moderate pace here. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go one mile on the turf in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race. Much like the first race, handicappers will have to figure out how to handle a professional maiden that has a big advantage over the field in terms of speed figures. Elko County (#3) has been to the races 20 times thus far and he’s never had the chance to visit the Winner’s Circle. Ken McPeek trained him in 2024 and 2025 and he had him in good form in the winter of 2025, when he ran two very good races on the turf when going 1 1/16 miles against maiden special weight types at the Fair Grounds. Mike Maker took over and he had trouble getting this one to keep up that strong form, however, two of his dull efforts came in races taken off the turf contested over wet and sealed racetracks. The other dull effort was a 12 furlong turf race at Kentucky Downs, which I feel is a fair race to toss out. His last two starts, one of synthetic and the other on dirt here at Monmouth were sharper efforts. He gets back on the grass while making his second start since being moved to Jorge Delgado’s barn. I think this is the right level of competition and I can see him getting a comfortable trip here, potentially sitting behind some cheap speed. I think there’s not going to be as much money in the win pool as there will be with the professional maiden that runs in the opener. I like him in this spot today. Mo Action (#2) is worth thinking about here, as he gets back on the grass to make his third start off the layoff. On paper, the two dirt races look a little better than his two turf races. However, while he appears to be a little one-paced, he is dropping in for a tag for the first time. He’s a three year old and he gets a rider upgrade to Samuel Marin. This feels like a spot where he can move forward. 

Race 5: 

The Late Pick-4 starts with a $16K-$14K, time-restricted claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. Natural Harbor (#6) makes his third start off a lengthy layoff this afternoon and is looking to rebound from a dull effort at Parx last month. That race came against N1X allowance types. That was a tough field for that condition and it clearly wasn’t his day as he was parked wide on that course. He ran a much better effort at Penn National two back when facing beaten $25K claimers there. I’m not sure he’s going to get back to his sharp form from late 2024 and early 2025, but at this level, he doesn’t need to be that horse. If he can get back to his effort from two starts ago, he should win this race. It’s been a good start to the meet for Prime Motive (#2). He has two starts and two solid wins against lesser fields. He was entered yesterday as a MTO runner in a turf race, but that race stayed on the grass. He continues to work well in the mornings as he’s showing signs of a four year old that could be ready to take another step forward. He’s 5-11 in his career here on the dirt at Monmouth and 0-11 anywhere else. Charlie’s Express (#7) ran well to be second at 8-1 in starter allowance company here last weekend when he was beaten by a nice horse. He’s making his second start off a five month break and this is a quick turnaround for him. Silvino Ramirez isn’t afraid to run his horses back quickly if they’re doing well though. He’s a horse that has finished second or third four times more than he has crossed the line first, so he does feel like a horse that is better suited for the lower rungs of the vertical exotics. However, in a race where Paco Lopez is riding a favorite that I feel is vulnerable, Grouch (#1), it might not be the worst move to make sure this guy is covered on a few of the multi-race wagers. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 has been a nice addition to the wagering menu at Monmouth, and typically those last three races here are some of the more competitive contests each afternoon. That is the case once again today as this new wager starts with this open $12,500-$10,500 claiming condition for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. After covering every race from Monmouth for the last six years, I can say with certainty that this level of racing on the turf generally produces the most competitive races year in and year out. I’m going to try Wow Lucky (#3) on top in this spot. There is not a lot of speed signed on for this race, and speed can be a weapon in these mile races where the field is starting on the straightaway. Francisco Martinez doesn’t get a ton of opportunities to ride at Monmouth, but there is one race that stands out to me from him. He rode a longshot in the opener on Haskell Day last year when going this distance on the turf. He put that horse on the lead and was able to get him home at 8-1. While admittedly, that runner had more early speed in a race that was also devoid of any real pace, this runner was closer to the front in some of her races on this course last summer. She was given a brief break after some dull winter over the dirt at Parx. I think she’s interesting in this race today. Delightful Ava (#8) is another longer priced runner in this race that is worth a look. Her five year campaign last year was not very good, as she was 0-6, without ever finishing in the money. She came back in a $20K-$18K N3L claiming race here on the turf last month and she ran well to be third at a huge number. She makes her second start off the layoff today and she stretches out to one mile. She ran solid races at this distance in 2024 and her last start suggests to me that whatever was ailing her in 2025, could possibly be in the rearview mirror. Tony Wilson gave Singalong Kayla (#6) a little time off after a dull effort with $16K claimers at Tampa in her last start back in February. She was a winner at that condition in December when making her first start in three months. I trust that Samuel Marin will have her in a competitive position here. I don’t love her as the favorite, but I do think she is worth considering. 

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race going six furlongs. I think this a great spot for No Denying (#2). She was a winner on debut with $10K maiden claimers here on 5/16. She came back two weeks later and paired her debut Beyer Figure when running a competitive third against a similar group. She drops a notch in class and comes back two weeks later for her third career try. Juan Avila is a high percentage trainer and I see this as a spot where this filly could take a step forward. While Elsie’s Smile (#5) had her number in that race, she had the better trip and has less upside in this spot today. She’s the backup as she’s a two-time winner in this field where most of the other runners qualified for this race under the N2L condition. 

Race 8:

The weekend concludes with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Everyone in this field qualified under the N2L condition. I landed on Redemption Speight (#1) for Terri Pompay here. I’m going to hope that his recent dull form is a result of him just not liking the course at Tampa. He broke his maiden in the fall at Laurel with $25K maiden claimers and he has several efforts in the Mid-Atlantic region that would be very competitive at this level. He has the rail and should get a decent trip in his return to the Jersey Shore. I’m hopeful that we’ll see a return to his 2025 form today. Magento (#2) is a three year old that broke his maiden on the Tapeta at Gulfstream in January. He ran well in two other synthetic races there this spring. His lone turf start at two turns wasn’t bad though. While he is facing older horses for the first time, he’s still getting class relief while doing so. On deeper ticket, Imperial Spy (#8) is an interesting longshot to consider. While most of his best work has been on the dirt, he had two promising efforts on the turf last summer. He went to the sidelines after a decent third place finish on the grass at Laurel and he didn’t return until January. He’s based in the Mid-Atlantic, so they weren’t able to get him back on the turf until now. His last start was taken off the grass at this level and he ran okay to be third in the slop that day. I think he’s a candidate to improve and I think this is a spot where his odds could be over his 12-1 morning line, and I wouldn’t mind playing him at that kind of price. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 22/87 (25.3%), $133.90 ($1.54 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet