One more sleep until the stakes extravaganza that’s planned for Colonial Downs on Saturday. #ButFirst, we’ve got an eight-pack of races scheduled for this twilight card with a 4pm post which will serve as an opportunity to build the bankroll before the big day.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-5-1-4
- Race 2: 4-7-1-2
- Race 3: 3-5-2-6
- Race 4: 6-3-9-5
- Race 5: 8-6-5-11
- Race 6: 10-3-9-12
- Race 7: 2-1-8-9
- Race 8: 10-3-2-9
Colonial Downs Race 4: She’s My Lady Luck (#6) at 6-1 or higher
It’s a pretty evenly matched group assembled for this N1X allowance sprinting on the dirt. I don’t have much of an argument against Passage East (#3) as the most likely winner in this spot as she comes into this race off three consecutive wins at more renowned circuits. I do wonder if her advantage over this field is dampened by the extra distance as she’ll have to navigate the one-turn mile. The most likely upsetter is Grammy Girl (#9) who goes out for the Saffie Joseph barn which has been hitting at a high percentage this meet. She could improve second off the short layoff, but was very disappointing losing her last at 3-5. If I’m going to try to upset this favorite I want a bit of a longer price and landed on She’s My Lady Luck (#6) as the top pick. She’s only got over the first once in her six lifetime starts and it was arguably her career best effort when finishing 2nd in an allowance race at this one-turn mile configuration down at Gulfstream. Since then, she’s had a chance to settle in at Colonial and got a run over the turf course which just darkens her form. I can envision a nice stalking trip in behind the favorites who I hope are too worried about race-riding each other allowing my top pick to run them down in the lane.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Oskar Martinez (Ire) (#8) at 5-1 or higher
I feel as if the bettors will hone in on Pajaro (#6) in this spot given that he’s bidding to push his record to 3-for-3 lifetime. While he’s certainly the most likely winner, there’s some questions to answer at a short price like having to navigate an extra half-furlong and this step up to open allowance company. Corso’s Pick (#5) and Elvis Himself (#11) are both coming off solid efforts at this 5.5f distance over the turf, but were 9-1 and 18-1 respectively in those tries and will be much shorter in this spot. I landed on Oskar Martinez (Ire) (#8) who gets back to sprinting on the grass for the first time since December. In that effort, I thought he wasn’t given much chance going the flat 5 down at Gulfstream given some trouble at the break. The last time he went this 5.5 distance was an open-lengths victory over this course and distance winning an open maiden special weight. His form seems to have been on an upward trajectory this year as Arnaud Delacour has moved him back up to allowance company after dangling him for a tag a few times in Florida to start the ’25 campaign. He might be a little further back than he’s used to given the speed signed on in this race, but hopefully Carrasco can navigate a decent journey.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Matadora (#10) at 1-1 or higher
I’m not trying to beat Matadora (#10) in this maiden event for juveniles and view her as a reliable single in Pick-X sequences. This Graham Motion filly went off favored in an open maiden special weight at Saratoga last out and while her effort wasn’t good enough to win there, repeating that will be plenty to handle this field. Motion trainees often get better with racing early in their careers so I can even project a step forward in this spot. As far as an option to partner up with her in exotics, Sugar Princess (#3) is interesting stretching out in distance off a solid try going 5f at Monmouth. She’s by BC Classic winner Authentic, so even though the dam was best sprinting there could be enough stamina in the blood to handle the extra 3f.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/2)
All
Top Picks: 83-22-18-10 (27%, $1.62); Featured Horses: 27-4-5-6 (15%, $1.39)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 46-7-12-6 (15%, $1.26); Featured Horses: 19-2-4-4 (11%, $1.31)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 42%; B’s: 37%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 2%
